Week 10 IDP Hits

By Matt Schauf 7:54am EST 11/13/22

T.J. Watt is back!

I’m not sure everyone is fully appreciating what that means.

This is the guy that led the league in sacks each of the past 2 years. In 2021, Watt also delivered 6 more QB hits than anyone else in the league. Count 6 back from #2 Myles Garrett, and you would have found 6 more players in range.

The gap was even larger the year before. Watt racked up 9 more QB hits than any other player. Either other guys finished within 9 hits of #2 Carl Lawson.

Watt also led the league in tackles for loss each of those seasons. He finished last year 5th among LBs in balanced-scoring leagues, despite missing 2 games.

This year – in two-thirds of one game – Watt racked up:

6 solo tackles
1 sack
3 tackles for loss
2 passes defensed
1 INT

Check out the weekly pass-defense DVOA ratings from Football Outsiders for the 1 game that included Watt (at Cincinnati) vs. the rest of them …

Perhaps he comes back at something less than full Wattage. But he said this week there’s not going to be a snap count. And Watt is 1 of few players around the league you should be scared to underestimate in his return.

Notes Around the League:

Week 9 featured a forearm injury that landed Raiders LB Divine Deablo on IR. LB Blake Martinez filled in for 91% playing time … and then retired Thursday. That leaves Denzel Perryman as the corps leader … but he’s questionable with hip and rib injuries. Perryman is worth waiting on for IDP lineups, if we don’t get an early indication of his status. The Colts have been a high-upside matchup for LBs.
Smith’s 1st game with the Ravens found him playing just 76% of snaps compared with 96% for Patrick Queen. Don’t bet on that continuing. Baltimore didn’t send 2nd- and 5th-round picks to Chicago for a new #2 LB. If Queen can settle in around that 76% playing time, though, he could still be viable in deeper IDP leagues.
Rookie S Kyle Hamilton also played a season-high 75% of snaps, despite Geno Stone and Chuck Clark still playing full time. We’ll see whether that’s a new plan or a 1-game approach. Hamilton played 53% the week before, following 5 straight games under 50%.
EDGE Tyus Bowser didn’t make a dent on the stat sheet but played 67% of snaps in his season debut, leading Baltimore’s edge players. Justin Houston trailed him by just 2 snaps. Odafe Oweh followed at 57%, with Jason Pierre-Paul barely playing (7 snaps).
The Colts had been getting healthier on defense. But LB Shaquille Leonard had a setback this week with his back, which needed surgery in June. He’s on IR, which means at least 4 missed games. Throw in a Week 14 bye, and Leonard can’t play until at least Week 15. He has yet to reach 60% playing time in a game, so we can’t use him that 1st game back. It’s not worth keeping any player in most redraft leagues, just in case we might be able to use him the final 2 weeks.
Bobby Okereke is now startable this week – and likely the following 3.
Colts EDGE Kwity Paye popped up Friday on the injury report after missing practice with an ankle issue and is questionable vs. the Raiders. It’s not yet clear whether he suffered a setback with the same ankle that already cost him 3 games or a new injury.
Buccaneers DB Antoine Winfield Jr. has cleared the concussion protocol and will play for the 1st time since Week 7. Winfield was scoring at a career-high pace and top-6 for the position before leaving that game early. He has worked primarily in the slot this year, so his return shouldn’t push S Keanu Neal out of the lineup. Neal has played 100% of snaps in 3 of the past 4 games, including 1 with Winfield in the lineup the whole way.
Dolphins LB Jerome Baker fell to a season-low 61% playing time in the Week 9 win over Chicago, trailing Elandon Roberts (77%). I’ve seen no indication of injury or change in role. Roberts previously hit 75% in Week 6, but he followed that with games of 47% and 58%. He has just the 2 games of 70%+ this season. Baker hadn’t dipped below 90% before Sunday. He still managed to tie his 2nd-largest tackle total of the season. I have him tentatively inside the top 36 LBs in our Week 10 IDP rankings. We’ll see where the playing time goes.
Dolphins EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah played a season-low 34% of the snaps at Chicago, in the 1st game following the Bradley Chubb acquisition. He’s been having a poor – and injury-challenged – season so far, making Ogbah easy to ignore in redraft fantasy leagues.
Bears LB Jack Sanborn stepped into the starting lineup after Chicago traded Roquan Smith to the Ravens. He played 88% of snaps vs. Miami and tallied 7 solo tackles.
Lions LB Malcolm Rodriguez is officially questionable with the elbow injury that cut his playing time in Week 9. He did return to last week’s game after suffering the injury early, but played behind Derrick Barnes. Detroit has elevated LB Jarrad Davis from the practice squad ahead of Sunday’s game against the Bears, which doesn’t seem to bode well for Rodriguez.
Commanders 2nd-year CB Benjamin St-Juste opened the year primarily manning the slot, but he has switched to almost exclusively lining up outside over the past 5 games. That will continue in the wake of CB William Jackson III’s departure for Pittsburgh. More interestingly, Washington had St-Juste traveling with Vikings WR Justin Jefferson last week. He was covering Jefferson for 5 of the wideout’s 10 targets, according to Pro Football Focus. Jefferson caught 3, including a 47-yarder and his 9-yard TD. St-Juste also snagged an INT among 2 passes defensed. He didn’t shadow Michael Pittman Jr. the week before, so we’ll see what the plan is going forward vs. clear #1 wideouts. But there’s stat upside in following such guys around the formation.