It’s very easy to talk yourself out of playing JT this week. The Bills are the #1 most difficult matchup against RBs in adjusted fantasy points allowed. However, Taylor’s volume and play have transcended typical matchup analysis. Derrick Henry went for nearly 150 rushing yards and 3 TDs against this Bills defense in Week 6.Taylor has that capability regardless of matchup. Great players at low ownership are always strong tournament plays.
Dan Campbell took over the play-calling duties against Pittsburgh. That change saw Swift see career highs in usage across the board.
Even if Jamaal Williams returns to action, Swift hasn’t had a single game this season with fewer than 5 targets. The Browns matchup isn’t easy (12th in rush DVOA), but the volume Swift should see supersedes the matchup. Plus, we have Tim Boyle starting who could gravitate towards a safety valve like Swift in the passing game.
Dillon is the “free space” RB this week. With Aaron Jones out, Dillon should see a 70-80% opportunity share of the Packers backfield. Be sure to pair Dillon with a contrarian RB1 or 2 to help differentiate your lineup as he may see upwards of 30-40% ownership in small field tournaments.
Montgomery’s return before the bye week was very telling. He saw 15 of the Bears’ 19 RB opportunities while posting an 85% snap share and 73% route rate.That usage is a bargain at $5,500.It was also Montgomery’s first game back from a multi-week absence, when we typically see RBs eased in. Now after another week of rest, Montgomery is a great value play against a league average Ravens run defense.
Also consider: Mark Ingram ($5,400) & Jeff Wilson ($5,100)