The Bengals are allowing the 7th most adjusted fantasy points to RBs this season and 4th most over the last 4 games. They are also allowing the most targets to RBs this season at nearly 10 per game, due in large part to Najee himself posting 19 targets against them in Week 4. He also projects to garner the least ownership among the elite RBs this week (McCaffrey/Taylor/Ekeler).
The Bengals have prioritized the run in recent weeks and it’s resulted in 6 rushing TDs in the last 4 games for Mixon. The Bengals are 3.5-point home favorites in this game and the Steelers' run defense has been exploitable in recent weeks. D’Andre Swift and Austin Ekeler combined for nearly 60 FanDuel points over the last 2 games against Pittsburgh.
Robinson has been able to perform despite two top 3 rush defenses in DVOA the last two games (Colts/49ers). This matchup profiles much better for Robinson with Jacksonville only being 2-point underdogs to a struggling Falcons team and facing a defense that ranks 5th worst in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. Our projections have Robinson’s ceiling 4th highest among RBs.
Sanders only played 46% of the snaps and ran 39% of routes in his first game back in Week 11. However, before Sanders was hurt he saw 75% and 83% of the snaps in Weeks 5 and 6. From Weeks 1-6, the Eagles ran at a 42% rate (11th lowest), but since Week 7 they are running at a 47% rate (5th highest). The role Sanders returns to is much more valuable now and the Giants rank 30th in rush defense DVOA.
Cheaper options: Ty Johnson ($5,200) & Javonte Williams ($5,700)