Jared Goff ($5,800)
Jared Goff isn’t even in the top 10 in our dollars-per-point rankings as he is a difficult player to project with wide distributions in his fantasy scoring. He has 4 games over 24 DK points and 4 games with fewer than 15 DK points.
But that just means that he’ll come in low-owned once again this week.
I like Goff in matchups against bad defenses who can’t generate pressure — and that’s the case this week against the Cardinals without stud DE Chandler Jones.
The Cardinals have given up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing QBs and the Rams should have no problems moving the ball against the Cardinals’ soft defense.
With a 300+ yard performance and a couple of scores, Goff will once again eclipse 24+ DK points and has easy stacking partners with Cooper Kupp or Robert Woods, who receive the vast majority of the targets for the Rams.
Austin Ekeler ($7,100)
Ekeler saw outstanding usage in his first game back from a major hamstring injury, setting a career high with 25 touches, including 11 receptions on 16 targets while playing 72% of the Chargers snaps.
The Patriots have a middling rush defense, giving up the 15th most fantasy points to RBs. They have been particularly vulnerable against the pass, ranking 25th in Football Outsiders’ RB coverage DVOA.
Ekeler is perfect for DK scoring as he managed 23.9 DK points last week despite not finding the end zone against the Bills. With similar usage this week, I would expect Ekeler to benefit from TD variance week and pile up 20-25 DK points in the process.
David Montgomery ($5,500)
Montgomery sits atop the dollars-per-point rankings with an excellent price tag of just $5,500 in the best possible matchup against the Lions, who have given up the most fantasy points to the RB position.
Montgomery had a great game in Week 12 against the Packers, setting season highs in rushing yards (103) and DK points (28.3). He also added 5-40-1 in the receiving game on 6 targets.
With Tarik Cohen out for the year, Montgomery jumped right back into a workhorse role for the Bears and should see even more volume this week as home favorites against the Lions.
Brandin Cooks ($5,600)
Brandin Cooks is the 3rd ranked WR in dollars per point as DraftKings priced him as if Will Fuller would be in the lineup for Week 13.
With Fuller out of the lineup, Kenny Stills released and Randall Cobb injured, the Texans will assuredly dial up more plays for Cooks, who has been effective on both short and long passes this season.
Priced at just $5,600 with a realistic chance of 10+ targets, Cooks is an exceptional value this week, especially with Deshaun Watson producing at such a high level.
I won’t be over-thinking this play and will be rostering Cooks in at least 25% of my Week 13 GPP lineups.
Robert Woods ($5,900)
Woods has quietly had a terrific fantasy season, averaging 17 DK points per game with 7 TDs on the season. It has been somewhat of a surprise to see Woods with just 2 games of 100+ yards, but he should have a good chance to do it against the Cardinals this week.
Only 7 other defenses have allowed more fantasy points to the WR position. And if Sean McVay elects to go pass-heavy against a poor Cardinals secondary, Woods could have one of his patented 10-100 games which would push him over 20+ DK points for the 5th time this season.
Woods is projecting well this week, ranking 4th in the dollars per point only behind 2 Jets WRs (yuck) and Brandin Cooks. I will be rostering Woods in at least 20% of my GPP lineups and will be stacking him up with QB Jared Goff.
Mike Gesicki ($4,200)
I’m able to poke holes in every TE on the slate, so I am electing to pay down at the position this week and hope for a spike week in targets and a possible red zone TD.
Gesicki was targeted 5 times last week and was able to salvage his fantasy day with 2-35-1 with Ryan Fitzpatrick back in at QB.
Fitzpatrick is much more aggressive than Tua Tagovailoa and Gesicki does have a game this season with 30 DK points, so I will be rostering him in hopes of being the highest scoring TE like he was in Week 2 against the Bills.
Patriots ($2,400)
As much as I love Justin Herbert, he can be prone to rookie mistakes as the Bills were able to confuse him on multiple occasions which led to 3 Bills sacks, 2 forced fumbles, an INT and only 17 Chargers points.
I think Herbert will a nice fantasy game, but the Patriots defense could too as they will dial up some fancy schemes and could force the rookie into a couple of turnovers.
The Patriots are simply underpriced for their upside and should come in at low ownership as they are only projected for 5.4 DK points with a ceiling of 8.1.
I like to spread out my defensive exposure a little bit more based on the variance at the position but will be rostering the Pats in at least 15% of my Week 13 lineups on DK.