It’s Week 16, folks. That doesn’t mean you just blindly go with whatever got you here. But don’t overthink it just because you’re vying for a title.
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dolphins (15.7% owned in ESPN leagues)
Fitzpatrick has the owned rate of a streaming QB, but he probably shouldn’t. My pal Jared tweeted Wednesday morning that since Fitzpatrick reclaimed the starting job in Week 7, he has delivered the 5th most fantasy points among QBs and finished 5 of the 9 weeks among the position’s top 8. Even Fitzpatrick’s worst point total in that span still ranked 18th for the Week (in Week 10).
This week finds Fitzpatrick back home to face a Bengals defense that has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to QBs on the year. Cincinnati would probably rank even worse in that category if it had been more competitive this year and thus forced more passing instead of running. The Bengals have allowed the 2nd most QB fantasy points per pass attempt on the year.
Fitzpatrick’s ceiling this week might only be limited by how many opportunities he gets.
Last week’s pick: Derek Carr (QB20 finish)
Full Week 16 QB rankings
TE: Mike Gesicki, Dolphins (25.7% owned)
Just to be clear: I would start both Tyler Higbee and Jacob Hollister comfortably ahead of Gesicki. But they’re now owned in 39% and 44.7% of ESPN leagues, respectively. So I’m listing the more-available guy here.
It’s scary that Gesicki supplied a 1-6 receiving line just 2 weeks ago against the Jets, but that’s the only time he has let us down among his past 4 outings. Even then, Gesicki drew 5 targets. And those 5 targets were the fewest he has seen in any of the past 7 games.
Just like his QB, Gesicki is a weekly starting option with a streaming-level owned rate. He has seen 6+ targets every game since Week 9 -- outside of those aforementioned 5 targets in Week 14. Over that span, Gesicki ranks 10th among TEs across fantasy formats. He’s tied for 3rd at the position in targets over that time.
Last week’s pick: Tyler Higbee (TE3 in PPR, TE8 in non-PPR)
Full Week 16 TE rankings
D/ST: Broncos (18.8% owned)
If you picked up the Chiefs last week, go ahead and run them out again at Chicago this Sunday. They do check in behind Denver in our Week 16 rankings, but both rank among the top 10 and face favorable matchups with plenty of turnover upside. So it’s really a dice roll between them.
The Broncos also make for a nice option this week, though. They’re a solid defense to begin with: 12th in Football Outsiders’ overall DVOA and 12th in “weighted” DVOA, which favors more recent performances. That’s worth noting, because Denver hasn’t held an opponent under 20 points since before its Week 10 bye. The 5 opponents since have averaged 387.4 yards per game. They’ve also averaged 1.8 turnovers, though.
This week brings a Detroit offense that doesn’t look nearly so threatening. The Lions totaled just 295 yards and 17 points against Tampa Bay last week; 231 yards and 7 points at Minnesota the week before. They also have turned the ball over 6 times in the 3 games with QB David Blough at the helm -- 4 of those on INTs over the past 2 weeks.
Last week’s pick: Chiefs (6th in ESPN scoring)
Full Week 16 D/ST rankings