Week 17 DraftKings Tournament Picks
Jared Goff ($5,600) + Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800) and/or D.J. Chark ($4,300) and/or D’Andre Swift ($5,300)
Goff will be popular – we project him for 16% ownership – but he’s too cheap in too good a spot to completely X out of your tournament pool.
Goff has topped 24 DK points in 3 of his last 4 outings and topped 29 in 2 of his last 3. He’s back at home, where he’s posted 24+ DK points in 4 of 8 games this season. And he gets a bad Bears defense that ranks 24th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.
Detroit’s 29.25-point implied total is highest on the main slate – half a point ahead of the Chiefs.
You’ll need to get contrarian elsewhere on your Goff teams, though. You can do that by playing low-owned guys from other games. Or by getting different with your Lions stack.
Chark (7% projected ownership) and Swift (9%) accomplish that goal.
Chark has a prototypical tournament profile, with a huge 16.0-yard average depth of target this year. He has games of 14.8, 21.4 and 17.8 DK points among his last 4 – and just 1 of those came with a TD.
Swift disappointed last week but registered his highest snap rate (56%) since Week 1 and his highest route rate (52%) since Week 8. He’s averaging 6.4 targets over his last 5 games and has a shot at 8-12 carries in this plus matchup.
I’d play at least 1 of Chark or Swift on your Goff teams. You could consider playing them both without St. Brown in large-field tournaments. And, in smaller fields, a triple stack is viable.
Teddy Bridgewater ($5,000) + Tyreek Hill ($8,900)
Think of this as playing “Dolphins QB” for $5,000. That’s not to say Bridgewater is some scrub. He’s had his moments in the NFL and is averaging a big 8.7 yards per attempt on 60 passes for Miami this season.
But, really, we’re playing a cheap QB in a top-notch scheme with a couple of the most explosive WRs in the league at his disposal. We’ve seen Tua Tagovailoa have huge games of 43.9, 32.2 and 27.1 DK points in this offense. And even Bridgewater tallied 23.2 DK points when he played 69% of Miami’s offensive snaps in relief of QB Skylar Thompson back in Week 6.
Sunday’s matchup vs. New England looks tough on paper. The Patriots rank 3rd in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA and 15th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. But they’ll be without CBs Jack Jones and Marcus Jones, while CBs Jalen Mills and Jonathan Jones are listed as questionable.
Bad timing with Hill and Jaylen Waddle coming to town. You could certainly consider using both WRs with Bridgewater in smaller field tournaments – although I’m not sure he has quite enough upside to support tournament-winning performances from 2 expensive WRs.
Bridgewater is projected for just 2% ownership; Hill 7%.
Also consider: Patrick Mahomes ($8,500) + JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,600) + Travis Kelce ($8,100) and Trevor Lawrence ($6,200) + Zay Jones ($5,000) + Evan Engram ($4,400)
Dalvin Cook, Vikings ($7,000)
Cook has appeared in this article quite a few times over the 2nd half of this season – and has usually let us down. I’m giving him 1 more shot in another great spot this week.
He draws a Packers squad that ranks 1st in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks but 30th against the run. Green Bay has coughed up 5.5 yards per carry to RBs over that span.
So we could see more of a run lean from Minnesota’s offense this weekend. Cook continues to get workhorse usage, playing 75+% of the offensive snaps in 5 straight and averaging 17.6 carries and 3.6 targets per game.
He’s a good value at $7K and projected for just 9% ownership.
Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs ($6,000)
McKinnon was 1 of the most popular RBs on the slate just a week ago. One underwhelming game later and he’s projected for just 2% ownership – despite being our 6th-best RB value.
Nothing changed with McKinnon’s usage last week: He posted a 61% route rate, 11% target share and scored another red-zone TD. This is the same guy who went for 35.4 and 34.2 DK points the previous 2 weeks.
That 35-pointer came against the Broncos, who McKinnon gets again on Sunday.
Leonard Fournette, Bucs ($5,600)
I’m struggling a bit with what to do with Fournette this week. It doesn’t feel like he has tournament-winning upside. But he just went for 25.2 DK points and had games of 35.9 and 22.1 DK points earlier this season.
And, at some point, we just need to trust the projections: Fournette is our top dollars-per-point value at the position but is coming in with just 5% projected ownership.
He’s taken control of Tampa’s backfield over the past 2 weeks, playing 59% of the offensive snaps, carrying 30 times and drawing 14 targets. Only 4 RBs have tallied more expected PPR points over that time.
If Fournette gets that level of usage again on Sunday and can just find the end zone once, we’re looking at 20-25 DK points.
Also consider: Christian McCaffrey ($9,000), Saquon Barkley ($8,000), Travis Etienne ($6,200), Miles Sanders ($5,900), Isiah Pacheco ($5,600), Tyler Allgeier ($5,300), D’Andre Swift ($5,300), Brian Robinson ($5,200)
Mike Evans, Bucs ($6,500)
I’ve been chasing a big game from Evans for most of the season, so feel free to ignore this recommendation.
But I do have some supporting evidence for the play. Evans’ usage has been fine: He’s averaging 8.2 targets per game, ranks 9th among WRs in air yards and sits 16th in expected PPR points.
He’s just running cold in the TD department and has had some big plays nuked by drops and penalties.
One of those came in the 1st meeting with the Panthers: a would-be 64-yard TD on the 3rd play of the game that Evans flat-out dropped. He still finished with a 9-96 line on 15 targets in that one.
Carolina heads into the rematch without top CB Jaycee Horn.
Allen Lazard, Packers ($5,400)
This assumes WR Christian Watson misses Sunday’s game with his hip injury.
In 7 games before Watson emerged this year, Lazard averaged 7.3 targets, 4.3 catches, 61 yards and .7 TDs per game. He projects for similar usage this weekend if Watson is out. And he gets the Vikings’ 32nd-ranked WR defense.
The Packers’ 25.5-point implied total is 4th highest on the main slate.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos ($5,100)
Here’s an even tougher play to stomach than Evans.
Sutton, like most of the Broncos, has been a colossal disappointment this season. But he’s somewhat quietly averaged 8.3 targets, 5.5 catches and 71 yards over his last 4 healthy games. He hasn’t spiked a big fantasy score in that stretch because he has 0 TDs.
Sutton looks like the healthier of Denver’s top 2 WRs heading into this weekend. He got in a full practice on Friday and isn’t listed on the final injury report, while WR Jerry Jeudy was limited all week and is officially questionable.
Jeudy, of course, went off for 73 yards and 3 TDs in the 1st meeting with the Chiefs – QB Russell Wilson’s best game of the season. Perhaps it’s Sutton’s turn in the rematch.
He’s cheap and projected for just 9% ownership.
Also consider: Mike Williams ($6,700), D.J. Moore ($5,700), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,600), Jahan Dotson ($4,600), D.J. Chark ($4,300)
Evan Engram, Jaguars ($4,400)
He’s a strong tournament play if his ownership projection holds at the current 12%.
Engram leads all TEs with 40 targets, 31 catches and 367 yards over the past 4 weeks, ranking 2nd to only George Kittle with 3 TDs.
He gets a Texans defense on Sunday that ranks 19th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs and surrendered a 6-69 line to Engram back in Week 5.
Jelani Woods, Colts ($2,800)
TE Kylen Granson is out for Sunday’s game vs. the Giants, which should mean an expanded role for Woods. In the last 2 games Granson missed, Woods registered 71% and 62% route rates and 8-98 and 3-43 receiving lines.
This is a 6’7, 259-pounder with 100th percentile athleticism – so there’s certainly big-play upside here. Woods gets a Giants defense that just got torched by Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson and ranks 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs on the season.
Also consider: Travis Kelce ($8,100), David Njoku ($4,100), Noah Fant ($3,400), Tyler Conklin ($2,900)
49ers ($2,900) - play even at high ownership