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Week 2 DraftKings Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola 4:02pm EDT 9/17/22


Stacks

Derek Carr ($6,200) + Davante Adams ($8,600) + Darren Waller ($5,600)/Hunter Renfrow ($5,500)

Carr admittedly didn’t play well in the opener. But that came against a Chargers defense that just limited Patrick Mahomes on Thursday night.

Now Carr gets the Cardinals defense that Mahomes smoked for 360 yards and 5 TDs in Week 1. Arizona, not surprisingly, sits dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense rankings.

The Cardinals secondary has no answer for Adams, who opened his Raiders career with a big 10-141-1 line on 17 targets (46% share).

It almost always makes sense to double-stack a pocket passer like Carr. If he has a tournament-winning performance, it’s likely that 2 of his pass-catchers have big games.

I prefer Waller as the 3rd piece of this stack. I like including a TE in my stacks when it makes sense. And Waller has more relative upside at his position than Renfrow.

Renfrow figures to be lower owned, though. And he did have 4 games of 20+ DK points last year.

RB James Conner ($6,900), WRs Marquise Brown ($6,200) and Greg Dortch ($3,500) and TE Zach Ertz ($4,500) are all viable runbacks on the other side of this game.

Russell Wilson ($7,200) + Courtland Sutton ($6,100) + Albert Okwuegbunam ($3,700)

Wilson is a bit overpriced, which should suppress his ownership in a nice spot at home for the Texans. Houston has a middling pass defense. And the offense played fast and went pass-heavy in the opener, ranking top 10 in both situation-neutral pace and pass rate. That gives this game sneaky shootout potential. The over/under has climbed from 42.5 to 45.5 over the course of this week.

We can again use a TE in this stack after an encouraging opener for Okwuegbunam. He didn’t fill up the stat sheet but registered a 74% route rate and 14% target share. The Texans finished dead last in Football Outsiders’ TE coverage rankings last year and sit 20th through the 1st week of this season.

Jerry Jeudy is certainly a viable stack with Wilson, but I lean Sutton because I think he’ll bring a bigger weekly ceiling. We saw him post a huge 17.3-yard average depth of target in the opener. And the 6’4, 216-pounder projects as Denver’s top red-zone weapon.

Brandin Cooks ($6,000) is the natural runback for this stack after racking up 12 targets in the opener – his 4th straight game with double-digit targets from QB Davis Mills.

Carson Wentz ($5,800) + Antonio Gibson ($6,200) + Terry McLaurin ($6,600)

The Lions might just be a shootout team this season. Their defense stinks. But the offense is good enough to keep games competitive.

The bookmakers seem to agree, slapping this Commanders-Lions game with a 48.5-point over/under.

Wentz is coming off a big 32.7-point outing in the opener. He benefited from 41 pass attempts, fueled by a Washington offense that ranked top 13 in both situation-neutral pace and pass rate.

Gibson is a viable stack with Wentz for 2 reasons:

  1. It makes it likely that we’re soaking up all of Washington’s TDs.
  2. He played a big role in the passing game last week, catching 7 of 8 targets for 72 yards. If we get a Wentz to Gibson TD, it’s yahtzee.

Curtis Samuel ($4,600) and Jahan Dotson ($4,200) certainly make sense as the 3rd piece of this stack. But McLaurin figures to be lower owned than both of his teammates – and I still believe he has the highest weekly ceiling. He led the trio with a massive 18.8-yard average depth of target in the opener. The Lions got beat deep multiple times last week and currently sit 32nd in Football Outsiders’ “deep” coverage rankings.



RBs

Christian McCaffrey, Panthers ($8,900)

CMC underwhelmed in Week 1 and is actually $400 more expensive for Week 2. That might give us 1 of the lowest ownership rates we get on him all year.

The big problem for McCaffrey last week was that Carolina ran just 50 offensive plays. He was on the field for 81% of those plays, handled 77% of the RB carries and drew a 19% target share. That’s elite usage – we just need the Panthers to run more plays.

They should this week vs. a bad Giants defense. New York is particularly weak at LB, so this is a great matchup for McCaffrey in the passing game. The Giants just coughed up a 3-61-2 receiving line to Titans RB Dontrell Hilliard in the opener.

Josh Jacobs, Raiders ($5,800)

If you’re not playing Carr and the Raiders passing game, get some leverage by using Jacobs.

His minimal passing-game role isn’t ideal. But he handled 77% of Vegas’ carries and got the team’s only carry inside the 5-yard line last week.

With the Raiders 5.5-point favorites with a slate-high 28.5-point implied total, this could be a game where Jacobs gets 20 carries and pops in a couple of TDs.

Also consider: Saquon Barkley ($7,300), James Conner ($6,900), Leonard Fournette ($6,700), Javonte Williams ($6,500), Darrell Henderson ($5,700)



WRs

D.J. Moore, Panthers ($5,700)

Same deal here as with McCaffrey. Moore’s usage was rock solid last week: a 100% route rate and 22% target share. It’s just tough to find fantasy points when your team only runs 50 plays.

The disappointing opener has Moore $300 cheaper for Week 2 and projected for sub-10% ownership. This is still a guy who could finish the season as a top 12 WR in DK points.

Michael Thomas, Saints ($5,800)

Thomas garnered a 24% target share, ranked 20th among 88 WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and tallied 22.7 DK points in Week 1. But it doesn’t seem like folks are ready to buy back in yet. Thomas is projected for just 11% ownership, despite this cheap price tag.

Thomas’ matchup vs the Bucs is difficult. But this figures to be a pass-heavy gameplan from New Orleans, giving Thomas a shot at 10+ targets.

Parris Campbell, Colts ($3,700)

WR Michael Pittman’s absence frees up a ton of targets (13 of them and a 26% share last week). WR Alec Pierce is also out this week.

So Campbell now looks like the best bet to lead the Colts’ WR corps in volume. And he doesn’t lack for upside. Remember that this guy ran a 4.31-second 40 time coming out of Ohio State.

He gets a Jaguars defense on Sunday that just coughed up an 8-55-1 line to Curtis Samuel, who played 64% of his snaps from the slot and had a 1.0-yard average depth of target. Campbell played 79% of his snaps in the slot with a 5.0-yard aDOT in Week 1.

Also consider: Tyreek Hill ($7,100), Marquise Brown ($6,200), George Pickens ($3,600)



TEs

Mark Andrews, Ravens ($6,400)

Andrews didn’t have a big opener, but the usage was there: a 94% route rate and 23% target share.

He’s $400 cheaper for Week 2 and projected for just 8% ownership. Andrews still has the highest ceiling on the slate at his position – especially in this matchup vs. Miami. The Dolphins finished 30th in Football Outsiders’ TE coverage rankings last year and sit 26th through 1 game this season.

Tyler Higbee, Rams ($4,200)

I chased Higbee all last season, so take this one with a grain of salt.

But I can’t ignore his Week 1 usage. Higbee ran a route on 92% of Rams dropbacks and soaked up 11 targets (27% share). Only 4 TEs registered more expected PPR points.

Higbee’s Rams have a 28.25-point implied total – 2nd highest on the main slate.

Also consider: Juwan Johnson ($2,500)



DSTs

The Bengals ($2,200) vs. Cooper Rush might be the highest-owned DST we see all season. It makes them an easy fade at such a volatile position. We just need to dodge a defensive TD and hope to get a big game from one of these DSTs:

Buccaneers ($3,300)
Panthers ($3,000)
Patriots ($2,900)
Steelers ($2,800)
Saints ($2,400)
Dolphins ($2,300)
Jets ($2,200)

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