Week 3 DraftKings Tournament Picks
Stacks
Derek Carr ($5,800) + Chris Olave ($6,300) + Rashid Shaheed ($5,300) OR Alvin Kamara ($7,500)
I’m buying this Saints offense. They lead the league under new OC Klint Kubiak in percent of passing plays involving both pre-snap motion and play-action – two strategies that we know provide a significant boost to passing efficiency.
Plus, Carr is playing excellent ball. He leads the league in both Pro Football Focus passing grade and NFL Next Gen Stats' completion rate over expected.
This Eagles defense is unlikely to slow the Saints down. Philadelphia has allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt through two weeks, ranking 25th in pass defense DVOA and 21st in DraftKings points allowed to QBs.
This stack is even more appealing because the passing game looks very concentrated. Olave, Shaheed, and Kamara have accounted for 62.5% of the team’s targets so far.
If Carr hits, there’s a good chance two of those guys are coming along with him.
RB Saquon Barkley ($7,700) and WR DeVonta Smith ($6,900) are both strong runbacks on Saints stacks.
Caleb Williams ($5,600) + D.J. Moore ($6,700) + Rome Odunze ($4,200)
This is a nice buy-low spot on Williams and the Bears passing game.
It’s been ugly so far, but the rookie has opened against tough Titans and Texans defenses. They rank ninth and fifth in pass defense DVOA.
Now come the Colts, who sit 29th in pass defense DVOA and will be without Pro Bowl DL DeForest Buckner and potentially first-round rookie DL Laiatu Latu (questionable, hip). Starting CB Julius Brents is out for the year.
WR Keenan Allen’s absence dings Williams’ upside – but also makes this passing game more concentrated.
Moore has already racked up 18 targets through two games. Odunze pops as our seventh-best dollars-per-point value at WR.
Also consider:
- Lamar Jackson ($7,500) + Mark Andrews ($4,800)
- Geno Smith ($5,600) + D.K. Metcalf ($6,300) + Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,400)
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ($6,800)
Gibbs hasn’t had a big fantasy game yet, but his usage has been awesome. Through two games, he’s totaled:
- 24 carries
- 13 targets
- 7 red-zone carries
- 2 carries inside the 5-yard line
- 5 red-zone targets
It has Gibbs third among RBs in expected PPR points per game.
He’s sitting on a tournament-winning performance. And it could come this week against a bad Cardinals defense.
Tony Pollard, Titans ($6,000)
Here’s a nice pivot off the chalky Jordan Mason and Zach Charbonnet.
Pollard looks rejuvenated so far this season. He’s averaging 4.4 yards per carry and already has five runs of 10+ yards. Only six RBs have more.
He’s also playing a big role in the passing game, as HC Brian Callahan said he would all offseason. Pollard has caught eight of 10 targets for 52 yards through two games.
With QB Will Levis off to a bad start – and the Titans 3-point home favorites over the Packers – expect a run-centric game plan. Green Bay has been gashed for 5.5 yards per carry by RBs so far this year.
Also consider:
- Alvin Kamara, Saints ($7,500)
- De’Von Achane, Dolphins ($7,000)
- Jordan Mason, 49ers ($6,200)
- Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks ($6,000)
- Zamir White, Raiders ($5,500)
- Cam Akers, Texans ($4,700)
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave, Saints ($6,300)
Olave hasn’t hit for a big fantasy score yet. But with this Saints offense rolling under new OC Klint Kubiak, it’s coming.
Olave’s usage last week confirmed that he’s still the alpha in this passing game. He hogged 40% of the Saints’ targets and 56% of the air yards.
Week 3 brings a likely shootout against an Eagles team that ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA and 30th in DraftKings points allowed to WRs.
Jameson Williams, Lions ($5,800)
Williams had a huge Week 1 and then proved that it was no fluke in Week 2. Although the fantasy production wasn’t as big last Sunday, he drew 22% of Detroit’s targets – second to only WR Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Through two games, Williams ranks sixth among all WRs in targets and third in air yards.
He boasts exciting upside in Sunday’s matchup with a bad Cardinals secondary. And with so many popular WR plays in the low- and mid-6K range, Williams is coming in at just 9% projected ownership.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks ($5,400)
Week 2 gave us everything we could want from JSN:
- 92% route rate
- 36% target share
- 10.6-yard average target depth
Smith-Njigba is an every-down player and is running a more diverse route tree under new OC Ryan Grubb. It sets him up for a breakout 2024 season.
But the DraftKings pricing hasn’t caught up. I expect him to be living in the $6K range for much of this season.
Smith-Njigba draws an excellent Week 3 matchup against Dolphins slot CB Kader Kohou, who ranks dead last among 97 qualifying CBs in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades.
I like mini-stacking JSN with Dolphins RB De’Von Achane.
Also consider:
- Justin Jefferson, Vikings ($8,600)
- Nico Collins, Texans ($7,300)
- DeVonta Smith, Eagles ($6,900)
- D.J. Moore, Bears ($6,700)
- Chris Godwin, Buccaneers ($6,500)
- Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers ($6,200)
- Rashid Shaheed, Saints ($5,300)
- Tank Dell, Texans ($5,200)
- Rome Odunze, Bears ($4,200)
- Jalen Tolbert, Cowboys ($3,800)
- Elijah Moore, Browns ($3,600)
Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta, Lions ($6,000)
This looks like a prime buy-low spot on LaPorta.
He’s been one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy football this year, totaling just 11.8 DraftKings points through two games. But his playing time has been nearly identical to last year. The targets just haven’t gone his way yet.
He’ll have more down games this season in a Lions offense that’s even more crowded with the emergence of WR Jameson Williams. But LaPorta will also have some tournament-winning performances as a high-end talent in a high-scoring offense.
Sunday looks like a good spot for one of those performances in a likely shootout against a bad Cardinals defense.
LaPorta is projected for just 2% ownership.
Also consider:
- Trey McBride, Cardinals ($6,200)
- Brock Bowers, Raiders ($5,400)
- Mark Andrews, Ravens ($4,800)
- Isaiah Likely, Ravens ($4,700)
- Greg Dulcich, Broncos ($2,900)
Defense/Special Teams
- Browns ($3,800)
- 49ers ($3,500)
- Packers ($3,300)
- Buccaneers ($3,000)
- Titans ($2,700)
- Bears ($2,600)
- Vikings ($2,400)