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Who's Due for More or Fewer TD Passes in 2019?

By Jared Smola 7:07am EDT 7/9/19


Throw for a bunch of yards, throw for a bunch of TDs. Usually.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that there’s a correlation between passing yards and passing TDs. But the strength of that relationship is even stronger than I expected.

Check it out:

The chart above plots passing yards vs. passing TDs for all 209 QB seasons of 100+ attempts over the past 5 seasons. That R-squared value of .8324 means that a QB’s passing yardage explains 83.24% of his TD production. That’s a super high number for a pair of football stats.


How can we use this to help us in 2019 fantasy drafts? By looking back at 2018 to find QBs who underachieved or overachieved in the TD department based on their yardage.

Here’s the same chart we looked at above — but with a few notables highlighted. Guys above the trend line threw more TDs than we’d expect based on their yardage and could be in for a dip in scoring this season. Guys below the trend line tossed fewer TDs than expected and could be in for a spike in 2019 TDs.


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