Will Mark Andrews Remain a TD Machine in 2021?
This is a free preview of a 2021 player profile. Draft Sharks Insiders will have access to over 300 player profiles in mid-June.
Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens
What You Need to Know:
- Boosted by the departure of Hayden Hurst, Andrews nearly matched his target total from 2019 last year (105 vs. 104). He saw a strong 22.4% target share.
- Andrews ranked a distant 4th in PPR points per game (12.2), behind Travis Kelce (20.8), Darren Waller (17.5) and George Kittle (15.6).
- Compared to 2019, Andrews’ yards per catch dropped from 13.1 to 11.7. His catch rate went from 65.4% to 62.9%.
- His yards per route run dropped significantly (2.68 vs. 1.86).
- Andrews’ drop rate remained high — 10.8% — a year after posting a 9.3% rate.
- Beyond volume, TDs were the difference-maker. Andrews scored 2 TDs twice over the first 4 weeks. But he totaled 3 scores over his final 10 games.
- TDs have been Andrews’ calling card through 3 seasons. He scored 7 times in 2020, giving him a career TD rate of 12.8%.
- Andrews’ dip in production came alongside some regression from Lamar Jackson. After an MVP campaign in 2019, Jackson’s volume, completion rate, yards per attempt and QBR all declined.
- Andrews missed 2 late-season games on the COVID-19 list. He missed only 1 game from 2018-2019.
- The 2021 Ravens look much stronger around Andrews. Sammy Watkins — while unreliable — adds a talent boost to this unit. Round 1 pick Rashod Bateman brings the separation skills to produce immediately.
- Marquise Brown, only 24, returns after reaching 58-769-8 on 100 targets last year.
- OC Greg Roman returns for his 3rd season in the same role. Baltimore’s ranked last in pass attempts for 2 straight seasons, but Roman has made offseason comments to suggest they’ll go a bit more pass heavy. HC John Harbaugh even indicated a larger receiving role for the backfield (mainly J.K. Dobbins).
- Over the summer, Andrews will attend a new TE summit — Tight End University — lead by Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Greg Olsen. The experience can only help Andrews entering a contract year.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:
Andrews has tallied back to back top-6 fantasy finishes. He’s done so with favorable volume and an elevated TD rate.
Both of those key factors are at risk of declining in 2021. Historically, TD production is fickle -- especially for pass catchers. In addition, rookie WR Rashod Bateman looked like a legit Round 1 talent on tape and was drafted as such. If he hits right away, Andrews’ fantasy stock could suffer.
At bottom, the TE's early Round 5 ADP is simply unattractive.