Player Profiles

Projected Points 406
Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes QB - KC

Experience: 3 YRS  
Height: 6'3"  
Weight: 220 
Bye: 10

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The forecast for today's Chiefs-Broncos game calls for temperatures in the teens with a wind chill near zero. Winds will be around 10 mph, and 2-3 inches of snow are expected. The wind and snow aren't real concerns, but temperatures this low do tend to impact passing production. It's something to keep in mind, although Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce remain must-starts. Note that the over/under in this game has sunk from 48.5 to 44.

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The Patriots-Chiefs game has been moved to 7:05 pm ET on Monday, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. (Falcons-Packers has been pushed back to 8:50 pm ET.) This is, of course, barring any more positive COVID tests from either team. Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce should be in fantasy lineups. There are no must-start Patriots with QB Cam Newton out -- but guys like Julian Edelman, N'Keal Harry and the RBs are fine to get into lineups if they're your best options.

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As of 8 am ET on Sunday morning, the Patriots-Chiefs game is still expected to be played in Week 4, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. COVID tests on all other Patriots players came back negative on Saturday night; the league is still waiting for the Chiefs' latest test results. It's still unclear if the game will be played on Monday or Tuesday -- and there's still a chance it's not even played this week if the Chiefs return more positive tests. We'd lean toward keeping your usual Chiefs and Patriots in fantasy lineups for now, but there is a risk that you'll end up taking a zero.

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The Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes have agreed to a 10-year extension, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. That keeps the 24-year-old in Kansas City through the 2031 campaign. Mahomes, of course, is on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory, averaging 304 passing yards and 2.5 TDs per game over the past 2 seasons. He sits #1 in our Dynasty QB Rankings.

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Snow is expected throughout today's Broncos-Chiefs game. There are already multiple inches of snow on the field. We're not adjusting projections for this game because there's no evidence that snow impacts scoring. But you can certainly use the weather as a tiebreaker between 2 closely ranked players.

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Injury Predictor

Patrick Mahomes became gifted with good genetics as his father (Pat) was a professional pitcher for several major league teams, including the Twins, Red Sox, Mets, Rangers, Cubs, and Pirates. His son Patrick was born in Texas.

Mahomes attended Whitehouse High, where he was a 3-sport athlete: football, baseball, and basketball. Max Preps recognized his talent and named Mahomes the Male Athlete of the Year in 2013-14. In baseball. Mahomes threw a no-hitter striking out 16 batters. While playing football, Mahomes threw for over 4,600 yards, 50 TDs. He added another 948 yards with 15 scores in his senior season.

Mahomes was considered a three-star football recruit and the 12th best dual-threat quarterback in his class. He chose to go to Texas Tech University and was so talented that he was also drafted by the Detroit Tigers in the 2014 MLB draft, but decided not to sign, attending college instead.

Mahomes' freshman season saw him serve as a backup to Davis Webb, and eventually got his first start and remained the starter for the final three games of the season. He finished the season with 16 touchdowns and just four interceptions with 1,547 yards passing.

In his sophomore season (2015), he remained the starter and would throw for 4,635 yards and 36 scores with just 15 interceptions. He saw little action in the baseball season, appearing in three games and allowing three runs as a pitcher.

In 2016, Mahomes announced his baseball career was over and as he planned to only focus on football. He set multiple records, including a single-game total offense of 819 yards and tied a record for single-game passing yards with 734. By the end, Mahomes threw for 5,052 yards with 41 touchdowns and ten interceptions.

Mahomes would forgo his senior season and enter the 2018 NFL Draft. At the NFL scouting combine, Mahomes threw passes that were clocked at the highest ever speed, 60 mph, and ranked as a consensus top-five quarterback.

Mahomes was selected with the 10th pick in the 2017 Draft after the Chiefs traded with the Buffalo Bills to serve as a backup for starter Alex Smith.

In 2018, the Chiefs put Mahomes in the driver seat as the full-time starter, and he took the NFL by storm. In his first full season, Mahomes put up touchdown after touchdown and finished the year with 56 total scores and just 12 picks.

At the start of 2019, Mahomes began to prove he wasn't a one-season wonder. He tossed ten touchdowns in the first three games, and continued to be dominant, totaling two 300+ yards in the next three contests. However, Mahomes only threw four TDs over that span. Over the first six games, Mahomes totaled 14 touchdowns and 2,104 yards and one interception. In Week 7, against the Broncos, he went down with a knee injury after throwing one score and was out until Week 10.

Mahomes' knee injury could have potentially been very significant, possibly career-threatening. While under center, Mahomes had his knee bent in an awkward direction by one of his lineman's legs, which resulted in him dislocating his kneecap/patella. An MRI revealed reportedly minimal structural damage, which is the best-case scenario.

Fractures of the bones of the knee, including patella fractures, fractures of the lateral femoral condyle, or the tibial plateau, often require surgery to fix, which can lead to significant issues with the alignment of the knee. Mahomes got lucky.

Despite facing a 3 to 6-week return to play designation for this injury, Mahomes was able to return only two weeks after the injury, sporting a heavily padded brace to prevent any future kneecap dislocations.

The kneecap is an integral part of the knee. The kneecap slides up and down in a grove when we walk or run. The kneecap is held in place by various ligaments and tendons. Injury to any of these tendons can throw off the alignment, thereby causing significant structural issues. Additionally, people with kneecap issues are often in pain. They feel their knee is unstable because their kneecap seems to "have a mind of its own." Thankfully it sounds like Mahomes was able to avoid all of this.

Fractures of the kneecap are not common in sports, but they happen. Most occur secondary to directly falling onto the knee. With the amount of force that it takes to dislocate a kneecap, Mahomes could have suffered a small avulsion fracture on the bottom or underneath part of the kneecap. However, based on the reports from the MRI, this is less likely.

There is also a critical ligament underneath the kneecap called the MPFL, which keeps the kneecap in perfect alignment. There's a good chance that when Mahomes had his kneecap dislocated, and subsequently put back into place by the team physician (on video), the MPFL could have been (was likely) severely injured or torn.

While the MRI report may say one thing, the statement made to the general public may say another. Rarely do the two perfectly align.

Despite reports, I suspect that Mahomes had some damage to the MPFL, and with time and proper rehabilitation, as well as bracing, this should scar down. It’s likely the case, as he did not seem to have any future injuries with it for the rest of the season on his way to winning the Super Bowl.

Any injuries with it would've been announced as a significant reconstructive surgery to repair the MPFL ligament. It would be irresponsible to allow Mahomes to play with his injury, risking permanent damage to his knee. Something not in the best interest of an organization when it comes to their franchise player.

I would not be surprised if Mahomes had a repeat MRI in the off-season or possibly sometime before the 2020 season starts. Predominately to check the status of the knee, and to evaluate the structural integrity of the MPFL.

Mahomes' significant athletic ability likely allowed him to avoid significant injury. His flexibility and versatility, as shown by his playing and running style, as well as his history of being a high-level baseball player, likely allowed him to avoid a potentially catastrophic knee injury.

I have no concern that Mahomes will continue to perform at an elite level. This injury was fluky and could've happened to anyone. While many players, especially those that are less flexible and less athletically gifted, may have suffered a significant injury, Mahomes managed to return in a mere two weeks. These are all great signs for his health and future risk.

Mahomes struggled a bit (at least to his standards) upon return. His first game back, against Tennessee, could be debated (446 yards and three touchdowns); however, Mahomes accumulated only 1,405 yards, ten total touchdowns, and four interceptions in the next six games.

It was in the playoffs and Super Bowl that we saw a return to his standard form. Mahomes threw for 901 yards and ten touchdowns with just two interceptions. The difference in production could very well be he was not fully healthy from the injury and needed the bye-week in the playoffs to return to natural status.

The Chiefs offensive line is middle of the road, but they are a top-tier passing unit, allowing a pressure rate of just 2.5 seconds, according to PFF. Mitchell Schwartz is a wall all by himself at right tackle. The Chiefs also drafted Lucas Niang for depth in the third-round. The run blocking needs work, but this offense uses the pass to set up the run. The offensive attack is only going to get better with first-round selection Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Last season, the Chiefs averaged 28.2 points per game, 5th in the NFL and averaged 6th most total yards, while being fifth in passing yards per contest. In the fantasy football realm, Kansas City had the fifth most points while averaging the 15th most passing attempts.

A healthy Mahomes will increase that by a lot. Mahomes and the Chiefs should also see an uptick in passing touchdowns (5th) and passing completions (9th).

The offense gets chunks of yards at a time. Their quick tempo allows them to score early and often. When the lead is securely in place, they slow it down. It is why Kansas City averaged 10th in the first half of contests in pace, while 26th in the second half. Mostly due to being ahead in games and running down the clock.

Mahomes can run and throw and thrives in a terrific offense. If he isn't the first quarterback off the board, he surely should be the second.

Final Prognosis:

Sports Injury Predictor calculates that Mahomes has a 24.3% chance of injury in 2020 (one of the lowest I’ve seen), which translates to a 1.7% chance of injury per game. He has a rather poor durability score, meaning that he doesn't like to play through nagging injuries.

Mahomes' complement of talent, mobility, arm strength, intelligence, and balance of weapons makes him an elite quarterback for many years to come.

In terms of risk score, he is a little more elevated than some, secondary to this knee injury, but still in the low-risk category. I am no longer concerned about his knee injury. His injury risk is low, and his upside and floor are immense.

We saw his talent return in the playoffs and as long as he can stave off injuries there is no reason he doesn’t finish as a QB1-2, especially with Edwards-Helaire adding as an additional offensive threat.

Injury Risk: Low. 3/10.

Projected Missed Probability of injury per game ? Probablity of injury in the season ?
0.70 1.5% 21%
Date Injury Analysis
Oct 17, 2019 Knee Patella Dislocation Suffered a knee injury on a 4th-and-1 conversion in the second quarter
Oct 22, 2016 Hand Wrist Fracture Mahomes' injury was to the scaphoid bone in his left wrist. He played the final 5 games of the 2016 season with that injury.

Injury analysis powered by Sports Injury Predictor

Sports Injury Predictor

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