Tyreek Hill is 26 years old in 2020. Born in Lauderhill, Florida, but grew up in Pearson, Georgia. In high school, he was an elite track star, running in both the 100-meter and 200-meter. He came within 100th of a second from beating the all-time 200-meter record. In 2012, Hill made the high school athlete of the year.
He also ran a 4.25 40-yard dash at a Nike Sparq camp. Hill represented the United States in the World Junior Championships in Barcelona in 2012, winning a bronze medal in the 200 m, and a gold in the 4 x 100 m relay.
Hill started his college career at Garden City Community College, where he ran track and played football, serving as both WR and RB. He was a highly sought-after JUCO recruit when he transferred to Oklahoma State University.
He was predominantly used as a running back and punt return specialist. Unfortunately, OSU dismissed Hill from their program after he was arrested for domestic violence, for reportedly choking and hitting his girlfriend.
Hill then transferred to the University of West Alabama, where he was utilized as a running back, wide receiver, punt returner and kick returner. Hill did not get an invite to the NFL Combine and projected to be an Undrafted Free Agent due to his history of domestic violence. Measuring at 5' 8 ?", and weighing 185 pounds, while running a 4.29-second 40-yard dash, Hill was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs in the fifth round. The Chiefs took heat for selecting Hill due to his history of domestic violence.
Hill's rookie season in 2016, he finished with 61 receptions for 593 yards and 6 touchdowns, rushing the ball 24 times for 267 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also returned 14 kicks and 39 punts, adding another three scores, appearing in 16 games. Hill was Mr. Do-It-All.
In 2017 Hill caught 75 passes on 105 targets for 1,183 yards and 7 touchdowns. He was still active on punts but was no longer returning kickoffs. Hill made his second consecutive Pro Bowl as a return specialist.
2018 was Hill's breakout season. He caught a career-high 87 passes for 1,479 yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging an impressive 17 yards per catch. In April 2019, Hill was sent home from team activities as a result of an ongoing child abuse investigation. However, in July, before the season kicked off, the NFL announced that it would not discipline Hill. Shortly after that, he signed a three-year, $54 million extension.
Heading into the 2019 season Hill was projected as a top 10 to 15 wide receiver after his breakout 2018 season. Unfortunately, due to an injury, he only played in 12 games. Even on a limited basis, he still caught an impressive 58 catches for 860 yards and 7 touchdowns.
Let's talk about some of Hill's injuries. Thankfully there have not been many, as he played in all 16 games in both 2016 and 2018, and 15 games in 2017. He suffered a minor quadriceps injury in practice in late July of 2019, but it was not serious, and he did not miss any time from it.
In Week 1 of 2019, Hill suffered a significant chest injury. I (Dr. Morse) discussed this injury extensively in this video.
Hill suffered a potentially fatal injury to his shoulder and chest area, which could have been much worse than it was. The collarbone/clavicle connects to the shoulder with the sternum or breastbone.
Hill landed very hard on his right shoulder. Several possibilities can happen here. Traditionally athletes will suffer a shoulder or AC joint sprain. Other times the clavicle or collarbone will fracture. The third option is something that is not as common, and it is known as a sternoclavicular (SC) sprain or even worse, dislocation.
If force is on the collarbone, the ligaments that connect it to the sternum can tear, causing the bone to dislocate either to the front or to the back. Hill suffered a dislocation to the clavicle where it meets the sternoclavicular joint.
If the bone pops in front of the sternum, it is determined to be anterior dislocation, the more common variety, not as severe (compared to posterior) but still excruciating. If the bone pops behind the sternum, it is called a posterior SC dislocation, and this is very serious - potentially fatal. This is what Hill suffered, a posterior SC dislocation.
The primary issue with posterior sternoclavicular dislocations is the location of where the collarbone ends up behind the sternum. The majority of the major blood vessels are located here, among several other vital things, as they are bringing blood to and from the heart. The bone could lacerate one of these vessels, causing the person to bleed into their chest/lungs, dying nearly immediately. Yes, scary.
Thankfully, the Chiefs' medical staff properly evaluated him urgently and sent Hill to the hospital for imaging and monitoring. Hill got lucky. There is a 3-4% chance of death with this injury. He was shut down for several weeks and likely monitored closely with a combination of CAT scans and evaluation.
While this could have been a nightmare for the team and Hill, coming off of a massive contract extension, he was able to return only five weeks later in week six. He returned with a bang, catching five passes for 80 yards and two touchdowns.
The good news is that this injury does not affect his most valuable asset, his speed. Once the ligaments around the sternum properly scar down and heal, this injury is no longer as concerning. While there is still a risk he could have re-injured it throughout the 2019 season, thankfully, he did not, and that risk continues to decrease as the time moves on.
As time moves forward, the risk of re-injury to the specific joint is elevated compared to someone who has never suffered the injury, but much better than it was after the injury occurred. I am not overly concerned about the damage.
Hill suffered another injury later in the 2019 season, tweaking his hamstring in week 11, causing him to miss the rest of the game. The injury coincided with their bye week the following week, and he was able to return in week 13 without losing any games, discussed here.
Due to his injury and missing time, Hill, unfortunately, did not finish the season as expected for his fantasy owners, finishing as the WR32. If you look at his points per game average with 15.7 and extrapolate that out through the course of the year, he would've been the WR9 in PPR leagues.
The 2020 season is bringing a new change. Hill is currently being drafted as the WR4 in PPR leagues just after Davante Adams and before Julio Jones, according to Fantasy Pros.
Hill's statistics in 2019 were erratic all-season. He finished in the top-ten three times, in the top-24 twice, and a WR3 or below twice. Hill is about as inconsistent as it comes. In 2018, it wasn't much different. A lot of his inconsistencies could be in correlation with the injury to quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Hill's ADP is 10th overall, and a WR4 (June 6th), and the offense should only be better. Hill is the type of player that can explode whenever the ball is in his hands; therefore, he doesn't need many receptions to post huge numbers. He takes advantage of the deep ball, and that is what the Chiefs offense implements.
With 32 touchdowns in 59 games played, while averaging nearly 70 yards per game and five receptions. Hill also has 71 carries over his first four seasons, but his attempts have declined each season.
Marking Hill in for 75+ receptions and over 1,300 yards is a lock. His touchdowns will vary, but anywhere around 7 to 12+ is in the cards. A realistic look could put Hill's ceiling as the number two receiver, right behind Michael Thomas. He could hit over 250 fantasy points.
Adding Clyde Edwards-Helaire through the draft and retaining Damien Williams will take away targets. Missing targets will force Hill to be inconsistent again in 2020; however, the offensive line will give Mahomes time to locate him while he is running his routes.
Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz led the line and made All-Pro second team last season, and former number one overall selection Eric Fisher is at left tackle. The unit is one of the best pass-blocking groups in the NFL. The pressure rate of only 2.5 seconds or less was second, only behind the New Orleans Saints.
The wide receivers that team up with Hill are good but don't demand a lot of attention away from him. Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman, and Sammy Watkins all will contribute. Maybe, with the now sober Watkins, he may become a player. Travis Kelce is the biggest threat to the overall production of Hill.
The Chiefs offense has fantasy production all over it. They average over 29 points and 384 yards per game. Kansas City also puts up over three touchdowns a contest and will continue to throw the ball.
Sports Injury Predictor calculates that Hill has a 37.3% chance of injury in 2020, which is pretty low for a full-time player. His chest/shoulder injury from 2019 was a flukey injury, and his risk of reinjury going forward is relatively low.
His injury risk score is 5 out of 10.
Hill is a number one receiver off the board and a top-12 selection in all leagues. The only negatives are the overwhelming weapons the Chiefs have and his injury history. However, that is just nit-picking. Injury-wise, draft him with confidence!
Injury Risk: Moderate. 5/10.
|Projected Missed||Probability of injury per game ?||Probablity of injury in the season ?|
|Sep 8, 2019||Chest Sternum Fracture||Tyreek Hill was ruled out for the game against the Jaguars after suffering a shoulder injury|