What You Need To Know:
-Allen posted a second straight overall QB1 finish in 2021 (28 FPPG).
-He ranked as a top-5 QB in 8 separate weeks. He finished outside the top-15 only 4 times.
-Allen’s adjusted completion rate dropped from an insane 79.1% to a more-human 73.8%. But he delivered on 646 pass attempts — 4th most league-wide and 74 more than his previous career high.
-Allen posted a career-low 6 rushing scores, however, despite a personal-best 122 attempts.
-Allen played a full slate of games for the 3rd straight season.
-Buffalo enjoyed some good injury luck, as Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox and Gabriel Davis combined to miss only 4 games.
-Buffalo returns 3 of those key pieces, with Beasley as the exception. Khalil Shakir arrived as a Round 5 pick, but he’s likely more of a year 2/3 contributor. Jamison Crowder arrived to help fill the slot void. TE O.J. Howard supplies a huge red zone target.
-Adding pass-catching RB James Cook in the draft gives Buffalo another catch-and-run weapon.
-Buffalo added some O-line competition over the offseason, most notably in G Rodger Saffold. While past his prime, he’s adding to a unit that won’t limit Allen’s production.
-The biggest storyline here revolves around the departure of OC Brian Daboll. Allen's former QB coach/pass game coordinator Ken Dorsey will take over.
-Buffalo ranked top-3 league-wide in 4 and 5-WR sets last year, and we fully expect another pass-happy approach.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:
Only 26, Allen’s just entering his prime in year 5 as the starter.
We have no concerns about this offense on the field; the key is simply smoothing out the transition from OC Brian Daboll to first-time play-caller Ken Dorsey. And we don’t foresee a rocky road there. (Allen, in fact, requested that Dorsey earn the promotion.)
Allen’s the superflex 1.01 and easily our top projected QB going into the season.
What You Need to Know:
-Tua ranked as the QB25 in fantasy PPG last year.
-He was fairly efficient (67.8%) but his YPA (6.8), TD rate (4.1%) and QBR (49.7) provide a snapshot of his underwhelming 2nd season.
-He finished as a QB1 in only 3 of 12 starts. He missed time with a rib injury and a fractured finger.
-Tua had just 2.5 seconds to throw on average, one of the lowest marks league-wide. A quick-strike offense played a role, but Miami’s O-line was a clear weakness.
-Miami lacked a reliable running game to keep defenses honest.
-A busy offseason changes all of that (and more). Miami’s added rushing/receiving talent in Tyreek Hill, Cedrick Wilson and Chase Edmonds -- plus O-line help with LT Terron Armstead and OG Connor Williams.
-HC Mike McDaniel arrived following the departure of Brian Flores.
-A Mike Shanahan disciple, McDaniel is expected to roll out a version of the West Coast offense heavy on play-action passing. He’s a first-time play-caller, so we don’t have past data to dissect.
-Frank Smith joined the staff as OC. Formerly of the Chargers, 2022 marks the first time Smith has held the OC role in the NFL. McDaniel is expected to call plays.
-The staff projects as a huge upgrade for Tua, who’s lacked coordinator stability (and creativity) as a pro.
-2022 shapes up as a make-or-break year for Tua. With Miami holding two 1st round picks next year, they could easily find his replacement in the 2023 draft if he underwhelms again.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:
Considering what little Tua’s done to this point, you might think he’s an easy avoid in 2022 drafts.
After all, the QB position is rich with fantasy options.
We simply can’t discount the upside to a healthy Tua — only in year 3 — with this stacked Miami supporting cast. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle give him elite run-after-catch ability, so an iffy deep ball is less of a concern. Mike Gesicki and Cedrick Wilson supply some red zone size.
Mix in a breath of fresh air with new HC Mike McDaniel, and it’s easy to see Tua joining the spot-start QB1 mix this fall.
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