Hunter Henry - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Henry supplied one of the few bright spots on the Pats’ 2023 offense.

He earned a contract extension this offseason and enters the fall at just 29 years old.

Between a balanced offense and a transitioning QB room, Henry’s ceiling looks rather middling. But if you’re in the market for a proven TE2, he’s fairly priced (TE19) in Underdog ADP.

What We Learned Last Year

• Henry was limited by one of the league’s worst passing games.
  • The 2023 Patriots managed only 199.5 passing yards and .94 passing TDs per game.
  • In 14 games, Henry ranked third on the team in targets (61), third in catches (42), second in yards (419) and first in TDs (6).
  • Five of his six red zone targets went for TDs.
• Among 22 TEs with 60+ targets, Henry ranked 20th in yards per route run, 21st in catch rate, T-15th in yards per catch, and 13th in PFF receiving grade.
• Henry finished as a top-12 fantasy TE five times, including four finishes inside the top-five.
• Henry missed the final three games with a knee injury. This followed back to back 17-game campaigns.

What to Expect in 2024

• Henry signed a three-year extension in March. It carries a base value of $27 million.
• Mike Gesicki departed via free agency. He removes 45 targets from the TE room.
  • The Pats added Austin Hooper in free agency and Jaheim Bell in the draft (Round 7).
  • Hooper hasn’t held fantasy value since 2019.
  • Bell brings H-back size and is more of a developmental player.
• New England’s WR corps remains without a proven WR1.
  • Ja’Lynn Polk (Round 2) and Javon Baker (Round 4) joined via the draft.
  • Returning vets include Kendrick Bourne (fresh off an ACL tear), Demario Douglas, and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who's no lock to make the team.
  • K.J. Osborn joined as a depth piece in free agency.
• The potential remains for Henry to be among the team’s top red zone performers.
  • New QBs Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett supply hope for improved QB play.
  • Maye’s UNC tape showed highs and lows but overall, a plus arm with the ability to extend plays.
  • Brissett is the steady veteran – he boasts 48 career starts. We tentatively expect him to be the Week 1 starter.
  • Alex Van Pelt arrives as the new play-caller. His units have ranked top 10 in rushes in four of five seasons as OC.