Week 2 Matchups That Matter: Perfect Bounce-Back Spot For Bengals
Welcome to Week 2’s Matchups That Matter.
The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.
The information below is all stuff that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.
An important note: All the data below is based on either Week 1 results or 2024 data. You should still be leaning much harder on projected volume than matchups when making Week 2 lineup decisions.
And, of course, check the Week 2 Rankings and the start/sit advice on your Team Intel page.
Good luck in Week 2!
Jump to:
- Game Totals
- Projected Points
- Projected Plays
- Weather Concerns
- Quarterback Matchups
- Running Back Matchups
- Wide Receiver Matchups
- Tight End Matchups
- Defense/Special Teams Matchups
- Kicker Matchups
Highest Game Totals
1. Jaguars at Bengals (49.5)
2. Commanders at Packers (48.5)
3. Bills at Jets (47.5)
t-4. Bears at Lions (46.5)
t-4. Eagles at Chiefs (46.5)
t-4. Chargers at Raiders (46.5)
Lowest Game Totals
t-27. Broncos at Colts (43.5)
t-27. Patriots at Dolphins (43.5)
29. Buccaneers at Texans (42.5)
30. Rams at Titans (41.5)
t-31. 49ers at Saints (40.5)
t-31. Seahawks at Steelers (40.5)
Projected Points
We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is projected to score this week.
Here's how each team stacks up:
Most Projected Points
1. Ravens (28.75)
2. Bills (27.0)
t-3. Lions (26.5)
t-3. Bengals (26.5)
5. Packers (26.0)
6. Cardinals (25.75)
Fewest Projected Points
t-28. Panthers (18.75)
t-28. Saints (18.75)
30. Seahawks (18.5)
31. Titans (17.5)
32. Browns (16.25)
Projected Plays
The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.
TIP
Projected plays are built into our award-winning fantasy rankings.
Most Projected Plays
1. Lions (64.0)
2. Ravens (63.9)
3. Bengals (63.8)
4. Commanders (63.5)
5. Cowboys (63.2)
Fewest Projected Plays
28. 49ers (61.2)
29. Jets (61.0)
30. Panthers (60.8)
31. Seahawks (60.5)
32. Titans (60.4)
Weather Concerns
Patriots at Dolphins
Like we had in Jacksonville last week, pop-up storms are possible in Miami today. That could mean heavy rain at times, a lightning delay ... or no weather impact at all. We'll monitor this one as we get closer to kickoff but aren't making any projections adjustments right now.
Update: As of noon ET on Sunday, there's only a 15% chance of rain during this game. No change to projections.
Quarterback
Week 1 Pass Defenses
Here's a look at how each team fared in pass defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus coverage grade, and PFF pass rush grade in Week 1. I averaged all three categories to come up with the Rank.
Note that this is just a one-game sample, and that these metrics are at least partly opponent-driven.
5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)
1. Joe Burrow vs. Jaguars (+29.4%)
2. Kyler Murray vs. Panthers (+22.7%)
3. C.J. Stroud vs. Buccaneers (+21.7%)
4. J.J. McCarthy vs. Falcons (+19.3%)
5. Russell Wilson at Cowboys (+16.2%)
5 Worst QB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)
28. Jayden Daniels at Packers (-14.0%)
29. Drake Maye at Dolphins (-14.3%)
30. Patrick Mahomes vs. Eagles (-16.4%)
31. Sam Darnold at Seahawks (-19.0%)
32. Jared Goff vs. Bears (-21.5%)
Running Back
Week 1 Run Defenses
Here's a look at how each team fared in run defense DVOA and Pro Football Focus run defense grade in Week 1. I averaged the two categories to come up with the Rank.
Note that this is just a one-game sample, and that these metrics are at least partly opponent-driven.
5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)
1. Cardinals vs. Panthers (+39.9%)
2. Bengals vs. Jaguars (+21.8%)
3. Jets vs. Bills (+14.6%)
4. Cowboys vs. Giants (+12.4%)
5. 49ers at Saints (+12.0%)
5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)
28. Bears at Lions (-14.3%)
29. Falcons at Vikings (-15.6%)
30. Buccaneers at Texans (-15.9%)
31. Chiefs vs. Eagles (-25.0%)
32. Eagles at Chiefs (-27.5%)
Wide Receiver
5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)
1. Falcons at Vikings (+16.7%)
2. Bengals vs. Jaguars (+13.7%)
3. Vikings vs. Falcons (+13.5%)
4. Texans vs. Buccaneers (+11.2%)
5. Ravens vs. Browns (+10.8%)
5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)
28. Commanders at Packers (-10.4%)
29. Saints vs. 49ers (-10.7%)
30. Chiefs vs. Eagles (-11.6%)
31. Rams at Titans (-14.8%)
32. Lions vs. Bears (-17.2%)
WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Cowboys WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens vs. Giants CBs Paulson Adebo, Cordale Flott, and Andru Phillips
Giants WRs Malik Nabers, Darius Slayton, and Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Cowboys CBs Kaiir Elam and Reddy Steward
Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Bears CB Nick McCloud
Ravens WR Zay Flowers vs. Browns CB Myles Harden
Eagles WR DeVonta Smith vs. Chiefs CB Chamarri Conner
Commanders WR Deebo Samuel vs. Packers CB Javon Bullard
Saints WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed vs. 49ers CBs Deommodore Lenoir, Renardo Green, and Upton Stout
Patriots WRs Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, and Demario Douglas vs. Dolphins CBs Rasul Douglas, Jack Jones, and Jason Marshall
WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan vs. Cardinals CBs Will Johnson and Max Melton
Chiefs WR Marquise Brown vs. Eagles CB Cooper DeJean
Colts WRs Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs vs. Broncos CBs Pat Surtain, Riley Moss, and Ja'Quan McMillian
Bills WR Keon Coleman vs. Jets CB Sauce Gardner
Tight End
5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)
1. Broncos at Colts (+37.4%)
2. Jaguars at Bengals (+26.8%)
3. Chargers at Raiders (+21.8%)
4. Bengals vs. Jaguars (+20.9%)
5. Cardinals vs. Panthers (+19.9%)
5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)
28. Saints vs. 49ers (-16.4%)
29. Bears at Lions (-19.8%)
30. Chiefs vs. Eagles (-23.7%)
31. Cowboys vs. Giants (-25.2%)
32. Raiders vs. Chargers (-28.0%)
Defense/Special Teams
5 Best DST Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)
1. Ravens vs. Browns (+100.0%)
2. Rams at Titans (+86.0%)
3. Cowboys vs. Giants (+63.5%)
4. Chargers at Raiders (+46.5%)
5. Dolphins vs. Patriots (+46.5%)
5 Worst DST Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)
28. Colts vs. Broncos (-33.5%)
29. Commanders at Packers (-39.5%)
30. Bears at Lions (-62.2%)
31. Jets vs. Bills (-76.1%)
32. Browns at Ravens (-80.9%)
TIP
Check out the top Week 2 DST Streamers.
Kicker
5 Best K Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)
1. Chad Ryland vs. Panthers (+29.5%)
2. Andres Borregales at Dolphins (+27.2%)
3. Cameron Dicker at Raiders (+21.5%)
4. Jake Bates vs. Bears (+16.1%)
5. Matt Prater at Jets (+15.9%)
5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)
28. Nick Folk vs. Bills (-21.3%)
29. Matt Gay at Packers (-21.9%)
30. Younghoe Koo at Vikings (-22.3%)
31. Jake Elliott at Chiefs (-23.2%)
32. Harrison Butker vs. Eagles (-26.2%)