For DST, the Matchup Is the Strategy

No fantasy position depends on weekly matchups more than defense.

If you waited to draft fantasy defense/special teams, as our Redraft Strategy Playbook recommends, the best move is to stream the position and chase matchups.

Let’s break down how DST scoring works and identify the best Week 1 streaming targets.

Breaking Down the Basics of DST Scoring

Most fantasy football leagues score team defenses on the following categories:

  • Points allowed
  • Sacks
  • Interceptions
  • Fumble recoveries
  • TDs

Because TDs are worth 6 points, including return scores, they create the biggest weekly swings. If your DST finds the end zone, you’ve almost certainly got a top-10 week.

The problem: Those scoring plays aren’t predictable.

Instead, points allowed give us the most predictable signal for DST fantasy scoring. In general, target defenses that are expected to allow the fewest points in a given week over trying to chase less-predictable big plays.

That often means simply targeting defenses facing the worst NFL offenses. 

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Why Turnovers and Sacks Aren’t Reliable

TDs aren’t the only volatile category. INT leaders rarely repeat from year to year. Fumble recoveries are even less predictable. And even sack totals fluctuate.

We still want defenses with playmakers, especially stud pass rushers and DBs who get their hands on the ball.

But as far as DST scoring categories go, we want to chase points allowed the most.

The Real Edge: Exploiting Matchups

Don’t lock yourself into one defense all season. DST scoring is volatile, and so are weekly opponents.

Some defenses will be better than others at limiting points. But if one of them draws the Eagles or Chiefs, you’ll probably want a different DST that week.

Embrace the stream and come back here weekly to find the best options. 

Week 9 Defenses Worth Streaming

Before you rush to pick up one of the following defenses, check your waiver wire for the Texans. 

They’re 63% rostered on ESPN (64% on Yahoo; 60% on Sleeper) heading into a matchup with the Chargers, who rank league-worst in scoring (14.1 points per game) and giveaways (2.4). 

Houston’s Week 8 bye increased your chances of finding the Texans available, and you’d be able to play them most weeks the rest of the way. After the Chargers, they get:

  • Cleveland
  • Indy
  • Baltimore (without Lamar Jackson)
  • Pittsburgh
  • Washington
  • Jacksonville
  • Philly
  • Green Bay

Only the Jaguars and Packers matchups look worrisome at the moment.

If the Texans remain rostered in your league, then we’ve got three more Week 9 options for you.

Week 9 Streaming Defenses

TIP

Use our fantasy defense rankings and projections each week to pick up the best DST.

New Orleans Saints (vs. Browns)

2.1% Rostered

The Browns continue to be an offense to target for sacks and takeaways, and the Saints get them this week. 

Cleveland leads the league with 4.1 sacks taken per game. That’s nearly a full sack more than the closest team (Panthers and Chargers at 3.3).

The Browns also throw enough to keep that problem central. Their 58.9% pass rate ranks 12th, which means more dropbacks behind an O-line that can’t protect. They also have two turnovers in four of their past five games, and just 17.4 points per game (29th). The Browns have scored 13 points or fewer in three of their past four games, which lowers the bust risk while the sacks and giveaways present upside.

There’s risk in playing the Saints, who haven’t been good on defense. They rank 29th in points allowed and 28th in yards. But they’ve also notched the 11th-most sacks per game, which aligns well with Cleveland’s weakness there, and forced six takeaways over just their past three games.

Detroit Lions (at Dolphins)

28.8% Rostered

Since S Brian Branch returned, the Lions defense has looked different. Detroit held its past two opponents to 17 and 15 points and grabbed an INT in each game, bringing the season total to 5.

Branch’s Week 9 status is uncertain after he left Sunday’s game for a concussion evaluation. Even if he sits, though, the Miami matchup keeps the Lions intriguing. LB Jack Campbell figures to be out after suffering a scary neck injury against the Vikings, but Malcolm Rodriguez provides adequate insurance.

Detroit should at least generate some points via the pass rush. The D ranks second in the league at 3.4 sacks per game, which lines up well against a Dolphins weakness.

Miami takes 3 sacks per game (tied for fourth-most) despite a 51.3% pass rate that ranks 31st. That kind of sack volume on limited dropbacks points to issues with both the O-line and QB Malik Willis’ pocket awareness.

If the Lions jump out to a lead, we could see even more pass volume … and sack upside.

Detroit sits third in scoring, faces a Miami offense ranked just 31st in scoring, and opens the week as a heavy favorite.

The Dolphins have done a decent job taking care of the ball, ranking just 15th in turnovers so far. Negative game script could increase the pressure there, though, and we’ve already seen Miami supply 2+ giveaways to three opponents.

There’s enticing upside and limited risk to playing the Lions D in Week 9.

Chicago Bears (vs. Buccaneers)

28.6% Rostered

The Bears’ defense has been quietly solid across the board. Chicago ranks ninth in points allowed per game (20.4), ninth in sacks per game (2.7), and tied for ninth in takeaways per game (1.4).

It could get better against the run as well with DT Jeffery Simmons after the Bears invested multiple first-round picks to get him from the Titans.

Tampa Bay’s offense has not been running through Baker Mayfield. He has just 14 pass attempts over the past two weeks. The rain played a big part Sunday, limiting Mayfield to three pass attempts, but the Bucs had already been leaning run.

Tampa’s 52% pass rate ranks 25th, but they still take 2.88 sacks per game (tied for seventh-most). They also sit tied for 10th-most in giveaways at 1.5 per game, and their 22.3 points per game rank 20th.

If the Bears run defense with Simmons can slow down the Bucs’ ground game, Tampa Bay will have to throw to keep pace with a Bears offense scoring 25.7 points per game (eighth). More dropbacks from a team that already gives up sacks and turnovers would boost the upside of the Chicago D.

The Bears are 5.5-point favorites with the Buccaneers implied for 20.8 points, which makes Chicago a fine streaming option.