Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds – Week 11

Who Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold This Week?

It’s almost fantasy playoff time, and that should alter the moves you make.

It’s getting a little late to go after maybes. And it’s time to stop holding on to what-ifs.

Consolidate your roster to maximize the value of your starting lineup. And don’t be afraid to look ahead to the fantasy playoff weeks – especially if your team’s already in great shape.

Here are some specific player recommendations to get you started …

Check out all our chart options:

 

Fantasy Trade Targets

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Draft Sharks Half-PPR Rank: 3
Market Rank: 5
Difference: 2

Taylor didn’t post a big fantasy line in Week 10, tying Antonio Gibson for 14th at the position in half-PPR points. But he dominated usage.

Taylor played 50 of 57 offensive snaps, beating Zack Moss 23-1 in carries and 21-2 in routes. He managed just 69 yards on those 23 carries and drew just 1 target. But we’d comfortably bet the over on both those stats if his workload stays similar.

Last week’s meh fantasy production plus this week’s bye just might present a buy window, especially for managers in need or verging on missing the playoffs.

D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks

DS Half-PPR Rank: 21
Market Rank: 21
Difference: 0

We previously listed Metcalf as a sell because his usage stunk. Since Week 6, though, he ranks fifth among WRs in target share.

That four-game span (he missed one) has included three games of 9+ targets for Metcalf. It has also featured just a 43.6% catch rate and no TDs, though. 

Metcalf has tied Keenan Allen for eighth in expected PPR points per game over that time. But he has tied for just 40th in actual PPR points.

QB Geno Smith’s inconsistent play remains a concern. But Seattle gets the third-best WR schedule the rest of the way – and the best from Week 14 through Week 17.

Odds are the Metcalf manager in your league likes him less than the market does.

 

Fantasy Sells

Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders

DS Half-PPR Rank: 24
Market Rank: 25
Difference: 1

We use the market to try to gauge players who are overvalued or undervalued. But the market prices come from the rankings of other fantasy “experts.” We don’t poll actual fantasy players.

The RB-needy manager(s) in your league can easily find out that Robinson ranked among the top 3 RB scorers for Week 10 regardless of format. He now sits:

All of those rankings sit well above his market valuation. And Robinson’s coming off his highest PPR score of the season; second-highest in the other formats.

He did so despite carrying just eight times at Seattle. Robinson caught a season-high six passes. He’s still averaging just 2.0 receptions per game for the season. And he’s been a game-script-dependent runner who has garnered more than 10 carries just four times.

It’s at least worth checking this week to see if a league mate values Robinson closer to his production level than the market does. And if you still have time ahead of your trade deadline, you can wait until after this week’s upside matchup with the Giants.

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos

DS Half-PPR Rank: 35
Market Rank: 31
Difference: -4

Sutton dominated Broncos targets in the Monday night victory, drawing 11 looks in a game that saw no teammate exceed four. For the season, he ranks 27th among WRs in target share to Jerry Jeudy’s 35th (adjusted for games missed).

Sutton has also scored in four straight games. And that’s his biggest selling point.

The sixth-year vet has scored on 17.1% of his receptions this season. Coming into this year, he had scored on 5.9% of his career catches.

Regression’s coming. Though Week 12 against Cleveland might be a better bet for its arrival than this week vs. Minnesota.

Also note that Denver gets a nice four-game stretch for WR scoring to close the fantasy season. So it’s OK to hold Sutton if you don’t get a good return.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

DS Half-PPR Rank: 14
Market Rank: 7
Difference: -7

Tagovailoa ranks eighth among QBs in fantasy points per game (depending on your format). So his market value is understandable. But let’s check his weekly finishes to see whether it makes sense …

Miami’s QB remains a boom/bust producer. And his remaining schedule ranks worst in the league for QB scoring by our adjusted fantasy points allowed. 

That includes matchups with the Jets, Cowboys, and Ravens in the fantasy playoffs.

 

Fantasy Holds

Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys

I don’t mind telling you that our guy Alex wanted Pollard in the “buy” section. And I get it.

For the season, Pollard still sits seventh among RBs in expected PPR points per game, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s tied for 25th in actual PPR points per game.

The biggest problem is TDs. Pollard’s sitting on 8.8 expected TDs. He has scored just twice – both all the way back in Week 1 against the Giants.

The Dallas RB got a little unlucky to not add any TDs this past Sunday in the rematch. He got three carries from inside the 5-yard line and gained yardage on all, but didn’t score.

His full-season numbers, though, fail to show the opportunity gap. Pollard racked up 15 carries from inside the 10-yard line over the season’s first three games. Then he totaled three over the next five games before Sunday’s three.

Pollard has also struggled to break tackles. Here are his annual attempts per broken tackle, according to Pro Football Reference:

It’s tough to punch the ball into the end zone often if you’re not breaking tackles.

Now, the Pollard manager in your league is no doubt fed up with the lack of production. So it’s a good time to run a price check on Dallas’ lead back – especially ahead of this Sunday’s upside matchup with the Panthers.

If you can get Pollard for cheap, go for it. Use our upgraded Trade Navigator to make sure you’re not overpaying.

David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions

Montgomery will probably have more of a Jahmyr Gibbs issue the rest of the way than he did before his rib injury.

Gibbs was terrific in the two games preceding Montgomery’s return. And his 14 carries in Sunday’s win over the Chargers marked his third-largest total of the season – two more carries than Montgomery had in the game.

Don’t overrate the difference in carries or playing time for that game, though. The RBs alternated series, and Montgomery cut one of his short by charging for a 75-yard TD.

More importantly, Detroit’s offense now ranks among the best in the league: 

And the Lions’ schedule ranks seventh-best for RB scoring the rest of the way. Even two of the three negative spots are games in which Detroit’s likely to be favored, which should help the game script.

Montgomery’s movable in the right deal. But we wouldn’t go out of our way to sell him.

 

Want Some Waiver Wire Help?

Matt and Jared talk through some of the biggest Week 11 waiver wire questions.