Fantasy Football Trade Targets Week 12: Let James Cook … (Go)

Let’s Enrich That Lineup for the Playoffs

Your trade goals need to change a bit as you get deeper into the season.

In the first half, we could afford to take chances on some guys who might pan out. But we need more certainty at this point, or at least more displayed upside.

We’re not so much trying to fortify the league’s best roster. Each passing week makes your fantasy reserves less important and turns up the spotlight on your starting lineup.

You’re gonna win your league by putting forth the best core group of producers. To make that happen, you’ll probably need to trade away some value. And you might need to give two players to get that one key piece.

Here are some targets on either side to help you make those improvements.

Week 12 Buys

• Lamar Jackson
• Emeka Egbuka
• RJ Harvey

Week 12 Sells

• James Cook
• Christian Watson
• Deebo Samuel

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Buy These Fantasy Trade Targets

Let’s start with a big name, a volatile rookie, and one of Week 11’s biggest disappointments.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

Jackson promptly tossed 4 TD passes on the hapless Dolphins in his Week 9 return from a hamstring injury.

Finally, said any Jackson manager who sat through four weeks without him (including the bye), plus the rough outing he left early at Kansas City.

But the two weeks since have delivered terrible scores by the Baltimore QB’s standards, ranking him 17th and 29th at the position (depending on your format). Heck, even Miami week found Jackson ranking just ninth.

And all that helps make this the time to strike.

You’re Buying a Stud with an Excellent Schedule

I’m not gonna waste much time here explaining to you what’s good about Jackson. His passing tanked the past two weeks, and he didn’t run enough to make up for it. That happens. And Minnesota and Cleveland aren’t embarrassing opponents for down scoring weeks.

But Jackson opened the year by finishing QB4, QB3, and QB3 before going down in Week 4.

Moreover, Baltimore’s already through the difficult portion of its schedule. The Ravens’ slate through Week 11 tied Tennessee’s for toughest in the league on QB scoring. Weeks 12-16 on: It’s the best by a wide margin.

That Week 17 visit to Green Bay looks tough. The Packers aren't impenetrable; they've allowed 2+ TD passes to five of their 10 opponents. But you can also plan ahead for a Week 17 alternative if you'd like.

(And if your league plays through Week 18, Baltimore gets another Pittsburgh matchup.)

What About the QB’s Injuries?

Jackson began this week sitting out the first practice with an ankle injury. Doesn’t that add risk to buying him this week?

Maybe. But Jackson didn’t miss a snap in last week’s win at Cleveland. He also opened last week sitting out practice with a knee issue. But the Baltimore QB returned to full practices and, obviously, played.

So I’m not particularly worried about either physical affliction. But combine them with Jackson’s lackluster production the past two weeks, and it’s not hard to imagine plenty of his fantasy managers experiencing some fatigue -- especially if their teams are struggling.

Go ahead and help that person feel better by trying to remove their Lamar Jackson burden and transplanting it to your lineup.

Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I never would have guessed that Egbuka would reach a point this season where he’d make sense for this space. We nominated the rookie as a sell all the way back in Week 3.

But things have changed recently, and a window might have opened.

Rookie and End Zone No Longer Friends

The biggest factor boosting Egbuka’s production and inflating his perceived value early in the year was his positive TD luck. Through Week 5, he had racked up 5 TDs on a mere 25 receptions -- a 20% TD rate that never had a chance of sustaining.

But Egbuka’s luck overcorrected.

His 2.2 expected TDs through Week 5 (according to Pro Football Focus) tied for a solid 13th among WRs. Since Week 6, though, Egbuka’s 3.4 expected TDs rank sixth at the position. But he has scored just once over the latter span.

The result: A profile that ranks eighth at the position in expected PPR points per game for that time frame has produced just the 37th-most actual points per game.

Look at the rookie’s game log, and his 6-115-1 line vs. New England stands as an outlier. But he has seen 9+ targets in four straight games and should be returning more points.

Better Health = Bigger Production?

Week 6 also found Egbuka leaving the San Francisco game midway through with a hamstring injury. He played through a questionable tag the following week but performed well short of what we had seen prior. Egbuka also remained limited in practices ahead of a Week 9 outing that saw him go just 3-35 receiving on nine targets at New Orleans.

But the rookie disappeared from the injury report after the Week 9 bye and delivered the aforementioned outlier stat line against the Patriots. He did nothing special at Buffalo last week -- 5-40 on nine looks -- but played a season-high 94% of the snaps.

The schedule doesn’t look favorable for WR scoring the rest of the way. But Egbuka remains the lead target, has drawn praise for his sharp mind and route-running ever since arriving, and plays with a QB unafraid to take chances.

Regardless of foe, Egbuka should prove at least solid in fantasy the rest of the way. See if you can get him before the next strong outing.

RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos

Yep, I know we had this guy as a sell the past two weeks. And if you sold him, then this change probably isn't for you. Feel free to skip to the next entry.

But if that's not your situation, you might just be thinking no thanks after Harvey's disappointing first start. Well, imagine how it feels to be the manager who has … 

• held Harvey all season
• probably missed out by not happening to start him for the few good games
• and gotten RB37 production when the rookie finally seemed startable.

The real reason to consider buying is that Harvey’s Week 11 went better than you think.

Rookie’s Usage Looked Way Better Than His Stats

I’m gonna steal the table from Jared’s Week 11 usage article to show you how Harvey’s starter role compared with the way Dobbins was used before the foot injury:

Harvey was already beating Dobbins in receiving usage before the veteran went down. Post-Dobbins, the second-round pick assumed even more playing time than the fallen starter, nearly the same carry share, and more expected points per game (i.e. better usage).

Sure, it stunk that Jaleel McLaughlin got the lone TD run. And McLaughlin got the 4-yard carry before that on first-and-8, despite Harvey working the drive into the red zone.

But do we really expect the 5’7, 187-pounder to operate as the goal-line back going forward? I don’t. Harvey has already tallied 3 TDs from inside the 10-yard line this year (one rushing, two receiving).

And even in that worst-case scenario, we’d still be looking at Harvey continuing to lead backfield receiving while drawing a much more consistent -- and stronger -- carry share than he did before.

Expect Stronger Production After a Short Break

Two other factors make this a good time to target Harvey in trade:

1. The bye week affords coaches more time to work with the second-round rookie and plan the post-bye offense. It also could help his trade cost, especially if he resides on a needy roster.
2. Denver will return to find positive matchups.

The Commanders and Raiders the next two games each stand as good RB-scoring matchups, ranking eighth- and 14th-most friendly to the position by our adjusted fantasy points allowed.

(And don’t be surprised if the Broncos find a little extra motivation against Las Vegas, the team that ended Dobbins’ season with an illegal hip-drop tackle that didn’t get called.)

Broncos RBs collectively rank ninth in PPR points per game, providing a situation that boosts any individual involved.

Recent Buys

Let’s look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the past two weeks and how we’d treat those players now …

Week 11 Report

• Nothing meaningfully changed with the three RBs we bought last week to alter how we're treating them this week. Even Warren's injury doesn't appear likely to cost him further time.

Week 10 Report

• Collins has racked up receiving lines of 7-136 and 9-92-1 since our initial buy call. It's not that I wouldn't still buy him. But doing so has undoubtedly gotten tougher. That said, it's the time of year to pay what it takes to get guys who can help you win a championship.
• Henderson, on the other hand, retains some downside risk with Rhamondre Stevenson's impending return. He's probably not worth what he would likely cost at this point.
• Walker is a scary guy to try to figure out. He just delivered his best fantasy score of the season in his worst matchup after posting meaningless lines against much friendlier foes. Kinda up to you what you want to do with him at this point.

Sell These Players

All three of these dudes present recent production quirks that just might lead to price inflation. If you’ve got one of them, try to benefit.

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills

If you’ve been reading/listening/following for at least the past couple of years, then this one might come off as me just being stubborn.

Just admit you were wrong about Cook, Matt, and let’s move on.

So I’ll start by doing just that. I’ve been proved wrong to not have given Cook at least a bit more credit at draft time. That fact ain’t helpin’ my best ball portfolio.

So now let’s move on to why it’s time to dump him.

Cook’s Usage Increases Fantasy Fragility

The fourth-year Bill spent his final college season carrying just 113 times behind Zamir White at Georgia but easily leading the backfield in receptions. That carry count more than doubled his previous high for a college season, while Cook’s 67 career receptions averaged 10.9 yards per catch.

So if we knew one thing when he entered the league, it was this: Cook could get it done in the passing game … right?

Well, Buffalo OC Joe Brady doesn’t seem to agree. 

Actions Tell Us Bills Don’t Love Cook the Receiver

Let’s start with these rates and rankings (among RBs) for each of Cook’s four seasons …

Overall, we can see in those numbers the Bills deciding to limit Cook’s receiving usage, at least relative to his role. And keep in mind that this season follows a four-year, $46 million extension for Cook; clear “lead back” money.

Brady, specifically, took over for Week 11 of 2023. And it looked at first as though he might help Cook’s receiving. Check the RB’s splits before and after Brady stepped in that year:

Cook’s route share dipped after Brady’s promotion, but the Bills targeted him significantly more

The two seasons since tell us either that Brady decided that wasn’t an effective strategy or that Josh Allen just hates throwing to his lead RB. (Frankly, neither would be better news.)

Sell Cook’s Fluky Two Weeks of Receiving

I laid all that out to reveal that you shouldn’t trust Cook’s receiving production from the past two games.

He caught all eight of his targets across those contests, including a 25-yard TD against the Bucs. But Cook played just one more pass snap (and ran one more route) than Ty Johnson against Tampa, and Johnson beat him in pass-game time in the loss at Miami.

Yeah, Matt. It’s called late-game garbage time.

Nope. Ray Davis -- not Johnson -- closed out that game with Mitchell Trubisky.

Before the Miami game, Cook totaled two targets and 1 catch over the previous four contests. For the year, he ranks 30th among RBs in total targets (right behind Dylan Sampson) and tied for 23rd in receptions.

Weekly Scoring Profile More Flimsy Than You Think

Cook still ranks sixth in PPR points per game for the season, buoyed by the league’s second-most carries per game and 5.3 yards per rush. But he sits tied for just 15th in expected PPR points per game, and that’s down to 22nd since Week 5.

Why Week 5? That’s when the target drought started. Cook tallied 13 targets over the first four games (3.25 per week) and caught all but one of them.

Even with the boost of the past two weeks, his got just 10 targets over the past six contests (1.7 per game) and 9 receptions.

One Last Big Knock: The Remaining Schedule

Lemme start this part with a warning: If you do sell Cook, then you’re probably going to regret it.

No, of course I don’t mean you’ll regret it overall. Would I spend all this time writing about why to sell him if I believed that?

I do believe, however, that you’ll probably regret not having Cook in your Week 14 lineup for a visit to Cincinnati. So why not keep him? Because everything around that looks much worse.

Outside of that Bengals matchup, it’s probably the worst remaining RB schedule in the league. The only other non-negative matchup by our adjusted fantasy points allowed comes in Week 17 against the Eagles, and they have looked immensely better on defense in two games since the bye (with a good outing against the Giants even before that.

The past four games have seen a drastic downturn in rushing vs. Philly:

• First six games: 134.3 yards per game
• Past four: 83.75

You should still hold out for a good return on Buffalo’s lead back. But this looks like a good time -- and opportunity -- to try to enhance your roster for the run to and through the playoffs.

Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers

This one’s a much simpler case than most of them, but it’s worth pursuing if you’re sitting on Watson and wondering who to combine in a trade package.

It stats -- obviously -- with his most recent performance. Watson tallied 2 TDs in a game his QB briefly left with a shoulder injury. But his opportunity volume remained low.

Watson led Green Bay in routes, running on 80% of team dropbacks, but he still drew just five targets and posted a 4-46-2 receiving line.

Watson’s playing time has trended up. And he’s averaging a robust 19.5 yards per catch. But he has averaged just 4.25 targets and 3 receptions per game over the four weeks since returning from last December’s ACL tear.

Volume Problem Ain’t Going Away

The Packers rank just 22nd in the league in pass attempts, compared with 12th in rushing attempts. They sit 21st in the league in neutral pass rate, according to RBSDM.com. Even that’s up from 32nd last season.

And we might still return Jayden Reed to a pass offense that likes to spread the ball around. Rookie Matthew Golden also hit a season low in playing time last week, in his return from a one-game shoulder injury that still rendered him questionable against the Giants.

Perhaps you get rebuffed this week by skeptical league mates in your attempts at selling Watson. But better to try and get rejected than sit there assuming it won’t work.

You’ll also probably have a tough time returning meaningful help in a one-for-one Watson trade. So look at packaging him in a larger deal.

Deebo Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders

The timing of Samuel’s sell case runs similar to Watson’s, but there’s more to dig into by virtue of him playing more than just the past four weeks.

His 7-74-1 receiving line in last week’s narrow loss to Miami even looks like a bounced back game when you check his log. But issues remain.

TDs Inflate Perceived Value

The specific timing here gets an assist from Samuel scoring in each of the past two games. But TDs have also helped him overall.

Deebo ranks 17th at the position in PPR points per game for the season, but just 28th in expected points per game. Despite ranking a nice 15th among WRs in target share, he sits just 30th in targets per game. He also ranks 79th in average target depth (according to PFF) among 81 WRs with at least 30 targets.

That short depth has always been Samuel’s way. But his 5.6 yards after catch per reception this year trails his previous low by 2.6 yards. He set that las year, and has decreased that average every season since 2021.

So Samuel’s a modest bet for weekly targets. His shorter range starts him behind other WRs in gaining yards on those catches. And he’s picking up far less after the catch than he used to.

And that’s not all.

Two More Factors Work Against Deebo the Rest of the Way

Washington hasn’t proved meaningfully worse in passing efficiency or overall yardage and scoring production in Marcus Mariota games vs. Jayden Daniels games. And the heel injury that Samuel has played through -- and missed one game for -- makes it difficult to compare his performance with each QB.

But the Commanders have averaged five fewer pass attempts per game across Mariota’s five starts vs. Daniels’ four full healthy games. That seems even a bit more telling when you realize that Washington went 2-2 in that Daniels sample vs. just 1-4 over the Mariota segment. (Trailing generally boosts passing volume.)

We’ve already established Samuel’s efficiency issues. That compounds the effect of any decline in volume. And we don’t yet know when -- or if -- Daniels will return.

That Upcoming Schedule … Yikes!

Washington gets a bye this week, which could make it tougher to move Deebo. But if you wait until after the bye, you -- and that potential trade partner -- will be staring at a matchup with the Broncos.

We all know that’s a bad spot for WRs. After that comes a trip to Minnesota. The Vikings D has shown more cracks recently but remains the third-worst scoring matchup for WRs this season, based on our adjusted fantasy points allowed. And a Week 14 home date with the Eagles sure doesn’t look friendly.

Matchups with the Giants and Cowboys surrounding that week leave Washington’s remaining strength of schedule looking basically neutral for WR scoring. But if you wait through the bye and then two bad matchups, your team might not be alive to take advantage of that Week 17 Dallas meeting.

Try to unload Deebo now.

Recent Sells

Let’s look back at our Sell recommendations from the past two weeks and see how we’d treat those players now …

Week 11 Report

Week 10 Report

• Selling Stafford gets harder this week after his numbers (predictably) suffered vs. Seattle. But a favorable Tampa Bay matchup offers rebound potential. That could either help your trade chances or give you a week to rehab his perceived value if you can still make trades ahead of Week 13.

Next Up

Top 8 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 11 Usage

Next Article  

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.