Fantasy Football Trade Targets Week 13: Lamar Jackson Challenges the Buy Call
Time to Question Everything
This is it.
I’m assuming, of course, that if you’re reading this, your trade deadline has not yet passed. But it’s probably about to. And many already have.
So it’s not time to uncover some sneaky buys or sells. It’s time to galvanize our rosters for the playoff run.
You don’t want a maybe for your bench. You want a definitely for your starting lineup.
So this season finale of the Trade Targets won’t introduce any new guys. We’re re-evaluating the options from the past three weeks. And if you want to look beyond these names, check your Trade Navigator.
I won't lie to you. It's a bit more worrisome that Lamar Jackson has just one total TD over the past three games, fell short of 60% completions each of the past three weeks, and has averaged a meager 2.8 yards per rush since his return. He's not quite as strong a buy at the moment. But this week does bring the first of two Bengals meetings among the next three games. In between sit the Steelers, who just allowed the Bears 31 points.
Emeka Egbuka's quiet day against the Rams wasn't shocking, especially after Baker Mayfield left early with a left shoulder injury. L.A. ranks first in total defesive DVOA and second against the pass. But the wideout drew eight targets, his fifth straight game with 8+. And three of his five remaining opponents rank 24th or worse in pass DVOA.
The key argument for RJ Harvey last week was this: Even though his numbers disappointed in the first game without J.K. Dobbins, his usage was good. That's unlikely to change coming out of the bye, and now he gets upside matchups with Washington and Vegas.
The good news for Aaron Jones: He continued to clearly lead the backfield work last week. The bad news: The offense has gotten even worse. You can still pursue him for cheap in a multi-player deal if you'd like. But don't expect league-winning impact from Jones.
Jaylen Warren left Week 11 early with an ankle injury and has watched Kenneth Gainwell deliver consecutive top-9 fantasy finishes. But Warren supplied his own quality fantasy line last week (18-68-1 rushing) and could get a further playing-time bump with the ankle issue another week behind him. A tremendous Week 13 matchup with Buffalo makes him more attractive, while the Gainwell scoring could lower the price.
Woody Marks' mere 1-catch outings the past two weeks look more fluky than change-signaling. He remained in control of backfield passing-down work. That he managed just 51 total yards against the Titans and 69 against the Bills -- two of the league's softest run defenses -- reveals his limited upside, however.
I mentioned last week that it was probably too late to buye Nico Collins, after three straight games of 7+ catches. But perhaps there's another window after his mere 3-55 receiving line against the Bills. Collins also has just 1 TD among his past four games, so he's probably not untouchable. He's not a "whatever it takes" buy but remains worth a look.
TreVeyon Henderson maintained the backfield lead in playing time, rushing work, and receiving amid Rhamondre Stevenson's Week 12 return from injury. That's encouraging if you have him, but he's still probably not a reasonable buy -- especially with a Week 14 bye yet to come.
Kenneth Walker doubled Zach Charbonnet's playing time against the Titans last week and beat him 4-0 in targets. He also watched Charbs get the lone TD between them off consecutive rushes from the 11 and the 5, on a drive that opened with Walker runs of 19 and 11, and a 29-yard Waker catch-and-run. The improved playing time means you can make Walker part of a trade package, but expect frustrations.
Sell These Players?
Let's see if it still makes sense to send these guys away.
Let's dig in a little on James Cook. First, he clearly delivered in the first game after my buy call, rushing for 116 yards and a TD at Houston and reaching 3 receptions for the third straight game. We obviously can't count on 45-yard TD runs most weeks, but it's certainly not a knock on Cook that he can dash for a long score against one of the league's best defenses. He did trail Ty Johnson in pass snaps and routes once again, though. And it's worth noting that his offense struggled overall in the loss. I never posited Cook as a guy you needed to dump and still wouldn't come close to saying that. It's fine if you'd rather just ride him from here, especially as a Week 14 home date with the Bengals glistens. But risk factors remain in his passing-game usage and non-Bengals matchups. I'm still willing to look at potential moves, as long as you'd get a strong return.
The Christian Watson sell was specifically targeted to follow his 2-TD line against the Giants. He remains a fine sell if you can get a decent return. His lead-target role also makes him fine to keep around if you can't.
Deebo Samuel might get easier to sell this week now that his bye has passed. TDs in two straight games boost his profile, while the impending return of Terry McLaurin could challenge his target share.
Yikes. Probably gonna be tough to sell D'Andre Swift off a nine-touch, 29-yard day that calls his role into question (because rookie Kyle Monangai outperformed him). But if you still can, I'd certainly go for it.
Xavier Worthy hasn't done anything to change my mind about selling him. He also hasn't done much to boost his price, with receiving lines of 3-25 and 4-59 since our initial listing. Check to see if Thursday's Dallas matchup can net you a spike in perceived value.
This is why we were trying to sell Rome Odunze off his 6-86-1 performance against the Giants. The two games since have found lines of 2-41 and 3-53 -- in a pair of Bears victories, by the way. Odunze's down to a 50% catch rate for the season; 39.3% over the past four games. Sell if you can, but it probably won't be easy.
Breece Hall has scored better than I would have guessed since we listed him in Week 10, notching RB7 and RB13 PPR finishes among the past three games. But he got fairly fortunate with a 42-yard TD reception to power that first outing and a 40-yard catch at Baltimore this past Sunday. Overall, the past three games have included just 3.6 yards per rush and 2.3 receptions per contest -- with a RB33 finish between the two strong ones. He remains a sell on my board.
Me: "Matthew Stafford can't keep throwing 3+ TDs every week. Stafford: "I almost can." This is nearly the QB version of the James Cook sell case. You're not moving Stafford to avoid an incoming crash. You'd be offering him in search of a strong return that would boost your roster overall, because the values/production run flatter at his position than most.
Was it weird for RJ Harvey to become a buy two weeks after we made the case for selling him? Maybe. But I laid out the reasoning last week, and nothing's changed coming out of his bye.