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Chase Brown - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsChase Brown's Basic Stats

Chase Brown
ADP: N/A
Bye: 12
Experience: 1
Age: 24.6
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 211
40 Time: 4.43

Burst Score (Rank): 131.50 (95%)

Chase Brown's Weekly Outlook

Week 9 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
67.6 0.41 2.3 16.2 0.09 11.2
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
59.3 0.4 1.9 15.1 0.1 9.8

Chase Brown's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#25 Running Back

183 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
Not Available 192.1 862.7 5.44 1.2 1.7 33.7 261.3 1.29

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsChase Brown's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Brown flashed late in his rookie season but is no lock for NFL success. It certainly helps his 2024 outlook that Cincinnati ditched Joe Mixon and that Zack Moss was the only addition. Moss looks like the better bet to lead the backfield early but is no lock. Best ball ADP currently has them further apart – Moss at RB26, Brown at RB36 – than our half-PPR rankings do (RB31 vs. RB38). That’s not enough to make either a specific draft target, though.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Brown arrived in the fifth round of the 2023 draft, as the 10th RB off the board.
  • He barely touched the ball through most of the season, totaling just two carries and three targets before Week 13.
  • A hamstring injury didn’t help. He hurt it in practice coming out of the Week 7 bye and missed the next four games. Brown played no offensive snaps in his first game back.
  • That changed in Week 13, when Brown suddenly took on a decent role.
    • He carried nine, eight, and seven times over the next three games and closed out the year with 25.8% carry share over the final six contests.
    • The rookie also drew 5.7% target share over that span.
    • He caught 14 of his 15 looks or the season, averaging 11.1 yards per reception.
  • Brown flashed his speed with a couple of big plays: a 31-yard run against the Jaguars in Week 13 and a 54-yard catch-and-run TD the following week against the Colts.
  • But he managed just 4.07 yards per rush for the year.
  • Brown tied for 16th in yards after contact per attempt among 78 RBs with 40+ carries. But he checked in just 74th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade.

What to Expect in 2024

  • The Bengals dumped Joe Mixon in the offseason, trading him to Houston just after reports surfaced that they were about to release him.
  • Cincinnati signed Zack Moss soon after that to a two-year, $8 million contract that includes $4.5 million for 2024. That’s still less than the roughly $5.8 million in cap space the team saved by moving Mixon.
  • Moss has never led a backfield in carries per game. Last year marked the first time he led his backfield in targets.
    • Moss produced well by fantasy points when Jonathan Taylor missed time for the 2023 Colts. He performed better as a runner than receiver, though.
    • Moss’ PFF receiving grades have declined each season. He finished last year 67th among 70 RBs who drew 15+ targets. (Brown ranked fourth.)
    • Moss easily beat Brown in rushing grade, ranking 45th among the 78 RBs with 40+ carries.
  • Brown says he took his first full NFL offseason seriously, including regular time with a trainer, a physical therapist, and a masseur: “I have a lot of people now around me to help keep my body in shape. I learned so much from last season and I'm taking that knowledge and doubling it in year two. It's investing in the craft, investing in my body. I think that's where people are wrong, a little bit (in the offseason). They focus a little too much on the extracurriculars, travel, all that.”
  • Reports say the Bengals plan to split work between the backs. It’s likely that Cincinnati’s coaches – including a new OC (former QBs coach Dan Pitcher) – haven’t solidified that workload plan yet. It’s also likely that work share will continue to develop throughout the season.
  • The Bengals’ offense should help RB scoring, as long as the QB stays healthy. Here’s where Cincinnati RBs have collectively ranked in PPR points since Zac Taylor arrived:
    • 2019: 29th
    • 2020: 20th
    • 2021: 13th
    • 2022: 6th
    • 2023: 22nd
    • Guess which two seasons found Joe Burrow staying healthy.
    • Cincinnati finished each of those years seventh in total points.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Chase Brown, RB CIN

9:47pm EDT 10/27/24

Chase Brown TD Masks Work Split

Bengals RB Chase Brown ran for 32 yards and a TD to lead Cincinnati's backfield in Sunday's loss to the Eagles. He averaged just 2.7 yards per carry across his 12 attempts. Brown added 2 receptions for 2 yards. His 4 targets matched Zack Moss.

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ESPN's Dan Graziano hears that there's "pessimism" about Bengals WR Tee Higgins' availability for Sunday's game vs. the Eagles. Higgins was added to the injury report with a quad on Friday, limited in practice, and listed as questionable. "The Bengals are planning to go right up until game time before deciding" on Higgins' status, Graziano adds. We'll look for more updates on Higgins on Sunday morning and get Cincinnati's inactives around 11:30 am ET. His absence would mean more target potential for WR Ja'Marr Chase, WR Andrei Iosivas, and the Bengals RBs and TEs. It'd also be a significant loss for QB Joe Burrow.

View all Tee Higgins Shark Bites »

Bengals RB Chase Brown led the backfield with 44 yards on 15 carries in Week 7. He didn't find the end zone but ended up playing ahead of RB Zack Moss.

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Bengals RB Chase Brown led teammate Zack Moss in basically every category in Sunday night's win over the Giants. He played more snaps (33-24), got more carries (10-6), ran more routes (20-14), drew more targets (3-1), and beat Moss in yards per touch (5.3 to 2.1). The RBs also appeared to get different treatment after their second-half fumbles.

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Bengals RB Chase Brown (quad) is active for tonight's game vs. the Giants. He was listed as questionable but never seemed to be in danger of missing this one. Brown figures to continue splitting backfield work with Zack Moss tonight.

View all Chase Brown Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Chase Brown, RB CIN
Dynasty MVP 28.0
Position Rank #23 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
292
445
726
Dynasty Write-up
Well-built at ~5’9, 209 pounds, Brown produced a monster 328-1,643-10 rushing line at Illinois in 2022. He then blew up the NFL Combine with a 4.43 forty, a 40-inch vertical, and a 127-inch broad jump. After he got over a hamstring injury, Brown showed he belongs as a piece of Cincy's backfield in 2024. While Joe Mixon departed, Zack Moss stands in the way of a significant workload.
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