Fantasy Football Dynasty

Dynasty Trade Targets (September 2023)

By C. H. Herms 5:06pm EDT 9/21/23

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Doesn't it feel nice to know that fantasy football is back?

We're not sitting around reacting to slow-motion training camp videos anymore. Every blurb about a player being "in the best shape of their life" is behind us.

The NFL is back again.

Now that your leagues are back in motion, are you looking to make some deals? Let us give you some advice.

We've taken our dynasty rankings and compared them to the Expert Consensus to help you identify maximum value on the dynasty trade market.

You'll see some charts throughout that highlight the various players we are either higher or lower on by position. Whether you're looking for a QB, RB, WR, or TE, we're here to help!

Check out this list of dynasty trade targets – or players to sell – early in the 2023 season.

Draft Sharks Dynasty QB Rankings Vs. Expert Consensus

There aren't a ton of surprises here. We're mostly out on some of the older players, like Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins, who are either already slowing down or near a point of decline.

One name that jumps out that may continue to be a faller is Bears QB Justin Fields. Unless OC Luke Getsy and company figure out some ways to play more to Fields' strengths as a runner, the young signal-caller is going to have a rough go of things for a while.

Here are a couple of names in specific that we'd like to highlight:

Dynasty Trade Target: Mac Jones, QB, Patriots

It’s tough to go out and make colossal blockbuster deals at this point in the season.

Over-leveraging your future by dealing a package that includes multiple first-round rookie picks for Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert is tough to justify, even if you’re currently 2-0.

But if you need QB help, why not look further down the list and check out what Mac Jones and the Patriots’ offense have been doing lately?

Philosophical Shift

This team has been throwing far more often under the tutelage of OC Bill O’Brien. The Patriots’ +1.6% Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) is the highest it's been over the last several years.

For context, this is how the Patriots’ offense has ranked in PROE over the last three seasons alone:

• 2021: -1.2%
• 2020: -5.1%
• 2019: -11.8%

This change in offensive philosophy has had a fantasy impact, too. Jones is averaging 18.9 fantasy points per game thus far in 2023, with a career-high mark in passing yards per game (273.5).

Can we expect Jones to throw the ball between 40-50 times a game all year? Probably not. Even so, he’s shown the makings of a quality QB2 option that managers can feel comfortable starting in superflex leagues.

We’re only a couple of spots above the market on Jones. This isn’t a super high-priority move, but it’s a smart economy buy that you’ll be glad you made.

SELL/HOLD Jordan Love, QB, Packers

Far be it from us to get in the way of a delightful real-life NFL storyline.

Jordan Love posting two straight games with 3 TDs and no turnovers to begin his tenure as the Packers’ starting QB is undoubtedly entertaining, especially considering that his No. 1 WR, Christian Watson, has missed the first two games due to a hamstring injury.

Regarding fantasy football, however, there exist some pokable holes in his production thus far.

Fantasy Mirage?

Though he sits as the fantasy QB2 overall, Love ranks 23rd in passing yards per game (198.9), 24th in PFF passing grade, and dead-last in adjusted completion percentage (62.0%) while boasting an 11.5% passing TD rate. For context, the league-wide average TD rate is about 4.5%.

Those familiar with the teachings of Sesame Street will quickly realize one of these things is not like the others.

The Packers’ offense ranks 18th in PROE (-1.8%) so far in 2023, and Love maintaining such a high scoring rate with such poor cursory production in this environment would be a very difficult ask.

The eventual return of Watson will help Love, but fantasy managers assuming the impact of one player’s presence can float this output are placing a large wager in doing so.

A Tough Call

We are +2 spots above market on Love, though.

It's possible that he could just be good, and he is young enough that he may hold long-term value.

Trading him away is not something you absolutely have to do right here right now.

There's no harm in waiting out what happens once Watson comes back into the fold. He's the type of WR that brings a field-stretching element to their offense, and Love could feasibly see a bump in his passing yardage totals with Watson present.

But if you're as skeptical as I am about his ability to sustain this success, consider selling now.

Love is a unique example of being somewhere between a sell and a hold candidate. The types of offers you receive will dictate the ultimate decision you make.

Draft Sharks Dynasty RB Rankings Vs. Expert Consensus

Even as a self-proclaimed De'Von Achane enthusiast, it's a little wild to see that consensus is so high on him.

While very fast and exceptionally agile, Achane is a smaller back that has yet to see much work on the field as he works his way back from a shoulder injury. Being -21 spots lower vs. consensus is a far more reasonable outlook.

Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet is another example of a young RB that has a ton of potential and hasn't seen the field much yet. As you can see, we're -8 spots lower vs. consensus on him. If you can sell Charbonnet for borderline RB2 prices, feel free to do so.

Here are a couple of other players we'd like to highlight specifically:

Dynasty Trade Target: Brian Robinson, RB, Commanders

The Commanders’ backfield looks like a committee from a birds-eye view.

Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson have registered similar snap shares of 56.2% and 41.6%, respectively.

Their production tells a different story, however.

A Commanding Lead

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Robinson has seen the field on 38 of the Commanders’ 47 offensive snaps in which a run play was called. On the other hand, Gibson has seen the field on just 6.

This massive gap in tangible involvement becomes even more apparent in the box scores. Robinson has dominated this backfield with a 77.7% share of the Commanders’ touch opportunities (carries + targets) through two games as a functional workhorse.

From a fantasy perspective, Robinson’s dominance amounts to ranking sixth in total touches (40) among all RBs on top of being the RB5 in PPR points per game (21.2). He’s leaving Gibson in the dust out there on the field.

In the interest of transparency, we did list Gibson as one of our favorite preseason fantasy sleepers for 2023.

It’s still entirely conceivable that he’ll be able to carve out a role as the season unfolds. One could easily argue that Gibson’s lack of involvement thus far can be traced back to a crucial lost fumble he recorded in Week 1 vs. the Cardinals.

We’re certainly not throwing in the towel and giving up on Gibson.

But we can't ignore Robinson's central role in this offense until his counterpart works his way out of HC Ron Rivera’s figurative doghouse. This usage isn’t unprecedented, either.

Robinson saw 52.2% of the Commanders’ carries to Gibson’s 27.1% in 2022 after the former made his season debut in Week 5. Granted, that was with a different offensive coordinator in a different scheme, but it speaks to the franchise's faith in Robinson as a runner.

SELL D'Andre Swift, RB, Eagles

This one is a quick-hitter.

Yes, Swift was tremendous on Thursday Night Football in Week 2, logging 28 of the team's 36 RB carries (78%) for 175 rushing yards and a TD against the Vikings. Managers who held onto Swift after his trade from the Lions are assuredly thrilled.

But let's not get too far out over our skis here.

Market Bubble?

Remember, this is an Eagles team that went through all of OTAs, training camp, and preseason games that watched Swift and still gave Kenneth Gainwell the RB1 job.

Gainwell missed Week 2 due to a rib injury. Are the Eagles simply going to abandon Gainwell and ride Swift the rest of the way? Maybe.

But there's inherent risk to holding onto him while folks who play fantasy football are excited about him. If this backfield becomes a committee, or Gainwell just waltzes back into a big workload, this value bubble will burst.

There's too much uncertainty surrounding this situation to advise anything besides moving on from Swift while he's hot.

Draft Sharks Dynasty WR Rankings Vs. Expert Consensus

These Rams WRs are hot ticket items right now!

In case you missed it, I wrote extensively about rookie Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell in the latest edition of our Dynasty Player Spotlight series. Check out that article if you haven't read it yet.

And in case you haven't noticed, the Nico Collins emergence in Houston is very real. Through two games, he's secured a 23.5% target share and currently ranks as the WR7 in PPR points per game (20.8).

As long as the Texans continues to play from behind on a weekly basis, there’ll be plenty of fantasy scoring opportunities for Collins, Robert Woods, and Tank Dell. We're well ahead of consensus on all three wideouts.

Let's check back in with one WR in specific:

HOLD Drake London, WR, Falcons

Falcons HC Arthur Smith is a pain in the ass for fantasy managers.

This offense is funneled through the RBs, making it difficult for anyone to trust their lead pass-catchers in weekly lineups.

I wrote plenty about how this environment affects WR Drake London in last week’s Dynasty Player Spotlight article. Our official stance on London in dynasty is to hold on if you’re a contender or a mediocre team that doesn’t rely on them. His performance on Sunday showed us why this advice makes sense.

London finished Week 2 as the PPR WR21 with 6 catches on 8 targets for 67 receiving yards and 1 TD vs. the Packers.

Rather than rehash the case for holding onto London, let this be a reminder to keep up with our weekly Dynasty Player Spotlight column. Draft Sharks is committed to providing insight for fantasy managers who play in all formats throughout the year.

Draft Sharks Dynasty TE Rankings Vs. Expert Consensus

Not a ton to take away from here, but don't forget this fun fact:

• Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson leads all NFL players with 8 red zone targets thus far in 2023.

He's not the type of guy you necessarily want to trust in your lineup each week, but those of you who play in deeper leagues with a TE premium really ought to give this guy a look.

And for as much usage as Bears TE Cole Kmet has seen through two games (20.3% target share, second among TEs), this is not an offense we're particularly trustworthy of.

All of the same reasons we talked about being nervous about QB Justin Fields apply here to Kmet. Something is functionally broken with the Bears' offense. If you can sell Kmet at a decent profit, go for it.

And with that, get out there and make some deals!

Ready to make some dynasty trades?

Check out our Dynasty Trade Value Charts for any league format:

PPR Trade Value Chart

Half-PPR Trade Value Chart

Non-PPR Trade Value Chart

TE-Premium Trade Value Chart

Superflex Trade Value Chart