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Dynasty Trade Targets: Buy Low/Sell High

By C. H. Herms 11:39am EST 2/24/24
Rachaad White sits prominently among this month's dynasty trade targets -- as a SELL.

 

Players to Buy, Rookie Picks to Sell & More

Now's a great time to make trades in your dynasty league.

Free agency hasn't opened yet, and the NFL Draft is still two months away. But that uncertainty creates opportunity.

Our latest round of dynasty trade targets suggests players you should buy or sell -- as well as moves you can make with upcoming rookie-draft picks.

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Need help pushing your deals over the finish line?

 

Buy Low Fantasy Football Targets

Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts

Pittman posted some career-best totals in 2023:

  • 109 catches
  • 1,152 receiving yards
  • 2.04 yards per route run

And he did so despite a QB situation that was less than ideal.

Rookie Anthony Richardson appeared in just four games due to a concussion and season-ending shoulder surgery, leaving backup Gardner Minshew to start for most of the season.

Through that mess, Pittman ranked 39th in NFL passer rating when targeted (86.3) among 49 WRs with at least 80 targets.

Pittman Feasting on Volume

Still, Pittman was able to finish tied for 15th in PPR points per game (15.6) and seventh in targets per game (9.8).

Since 2021, he ranks seventh among WRs in total targets (426) and has seen no fewer than 129 in any season during that span.

Pittman enters 2024 set to become a free agent. Per NFL.com, he says he wants to explore his options but is not opposed to getting the franchise tag.

Currently valued as the WR20 on KeepTradeCut, Pittman sits top-12 in our dynasty WR rankings. He’ll turn just 27 in October.

Trade Value Chart Check

There's a dynasty trade value chart to fit your format, with customized values for every player and upcoming rookie pick.

  • 1-QB, 1-PPR: 62
  • 1-QB, Half-PPR: 61
  • Superflex, 1-PPR: 56
  • Superflex, Half-PPR: 50
Similar Value:
  • Ken Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks
  • 2024 mid-Round 1 rookie pick

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Let’s start with the negatives: Higgins recorded career lows in just about every stat category in 2023, including:

  • Drop rate (12.5%)
  • Yards per route run (1.66)
  • Games played (12)

The wideout dealt with hamstring and rib issues that prevented him from ever finding a groove.

On top of that, QB Joe Burrow’s calf strain to open the season and season-ending wrist injury in Week 11 further damaged the Bengals’ offense.

Despite these issues, Higgins did post the highest yards after catch per reception (5.6) and yards per reception (15.6) of his career and tallied four top-10 PPR weekly finishes.

Don’t Fret; Buy The Dip

We’re talking about a guy who opened his career with three consecutive seasons of 900+ receiving yards, recently turned 25, and will enter free agency this offseason.

We don’t know yet where he’ll land, but that uncertainty could mean a further price reduction on Higgins, who sits:

  • 23rd among WRs on KeepTradeCut
  • 18th in FantasyPros' ECR dynasty WR rankings
  • 16th in our dynasty WR rankings (for PPR)

Trade Value Chart Check

Similar Values:
  • Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
  • 2025 early-Round 1 rookie pick

Greg Dulcich, TE, Denver Broncos

Dulcich’s sophomore season disappointed, as a hamstring injury limited him to two games.

It’s easy for dynasty managers to fade a player who hasn’t posted significant numbers for a while, but let’s remember how good Dulcich was as a rookie.

From Week 6-16 of 2022, Dulcich ranked:

  • 13th in target share (17.1%)
  • sixth in team air yards share (21.7%)
  • and third in aDOT (11.3) among all TEs.

Additionally, the 1.30 yards per route run he posted as a rookie ranks 12th among 27 rookie TEs with 30+ targets over the past six seasons.

Small Price to Pay

Dulcich is currently valued as the TE25 per KeepTradeCut, equivalent to a late 2023 third-round rookie pick.

Dynasty managers spending a rookie pick that late can only hope for a player with this kind of upside, so why not just send it away for a guy we’ve seen do it already?

Trade Value Chart Check

  • 1-QB, 1-PPR: 23
  • 1-QB, Half-PPR: 28
  • Superflex, 1-PPR: 23
  • Superflex, Half-PPR: 24
  • TE Premium: 28
Similar Values:
  • Miles Sanders, RB, Carolina Panthers
  • Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
  • 2024 late-Round 3 rookie pick

 

Sell High Fantasy Football Targets

Picks: Mid-To-Late 2024 Firsts

First-round rookie picks can inject youth into your roster.

But not all rookie picks are created equally.

QBs Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels look exciting. Same with WRs Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers -- as well as TE Brock Bowers. Maybe WR Rome Odunze.

Beyond that sits a drop-off in talent.

Don’t (Always) Believe The Hype

Even the recent past indicates that hit rates on rookies outside the top 5 picks aren’t always great.

Just look at the first round of DLF’s superflex rookie draft ADP from this time last year as a prime example:

  • 1.01: Bijan Robinson
  • 1.02: Bryce Young
  • 1.03: C.J. Stroud
  • 1.04: Jahmyr Gibbs
  • 1.05: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
  • 1.06: Jordan Addison
  • 1.07: Anthony Richardson
  • 1.08: Will Levis
  • 1.09: Quentin Johnston
  • 1.10: Zach Charbonnet
  • 1.11: Kayshon Boutte
  • 1.12: Josh Downs

If you're not in position for a top-6 player, consider moving down in your rookie draft for a similar prospect or flip that pick for a proven veteran.

Thinking about flipping rookie picks?

Put some names to those assets.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

White’s finish as the RB10 in PPR points per game (15.8) last year looks great on the surface.

He ranked second among RBs in games with 20+ carries (six). Only Kyren Williams had more (seven), and just two other RBs (Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley) had more than five.

But White remained an inefficient runner.

Among 49 RBs with 100+ carries, White ranked:

  • 43rd in PFF rushing grade
  • 42nd in yards after contact per attempt (2.53)
  • tied for 40th in yards per carry (3.6)
  • 34th in PFF elusive rating

Value Dip Ahead?

We're not betting White loses his backfield lead. But we would bet on Tampa Bay pursuing a better No. 2 RB than Chase Edmonds was last year.

Edmonds averaged just 3.8 carries and 1.1 receptions per game. Ke'Shawn Vaughn totaled just 26 touches; Sean Tucker 17.

That lack of backfield depth helped White rank sixth league wide in opportunity share.

Better competition in 2024 would almost certainly cut into that share -- especially given White's two years of lackluster rushing efficiency.

On top of that, dynasty managers don't have much patience for aging RBs. Any perceived value dip in 2024 could be exacerbated by White simply being a year older at a position with a high churn rate in dynasty.

Trade Value Chart Check

Similar Values:
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
  • 2024 mid-to-late-Round 1 rookie pick

Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens

Likely has shined as a spot-start TE when Mark Andrews has been injured over the past two seasons.

In nine games without Andrews, Likely has averaged 3.4 receptions, 50.3 receiving yards, 0.67 receiving TDs, and 12.5 PPR points.

The issue is that Likely's rendered irrelevant when Andrews is healthy. 

In 24 games together, Likely has averaged just:

  • 1.5 receptions
  • 13.8 receiving yards
  • 0.08 receiving TDs
  • 3.3 PPR points

Don’t Play the Waiting Game

Likely sits TE16 on KeepTradeCut, ahead of veteran options such as Dallas Goedert and Dalton Schultz.

Likely and Andrews are both under contract through 2025. When exactly is Likely supposed to find his way to weekly relevance in lineups?

Find the person in your league that's willing to pay up for a backup and make the swap.

Trade Value Chart Check

  • 1-QB, 1-PPR: 12
  • 1-QB, Half-PPR: 17
  • Superflex, 1-PPR: 12
  • Superflex, Half-PPR: 15
  • TE Premium: 14
Similar Values:
  • Josh Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
  • 2025 mid-Round 3 rookie pick

(Note: You should aim higher in your trade requests.)

 

Players To Hold

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles’ season finished poorly, but that didn’t really hurt their QB’s numbers.

For the third straight year, Hurts scored at least 10 rushing TDs and ranked among the top 4 QBs in rushing yards.

Hurts only had three 2023 regular-season games in which he didn’t account for multiple TDs (rushing and/or passing).

See if the Hurts Manager Will Sell Low

There’s “buy” potential here if the Hurts manager in your league is worried about C Jason Kelce retiring (he hasn’t officially announced yet), the change to new OC Kellen Moore coming over from a failed stint with the Chargers, or the NFL trying to outlaw the “Tush Push.”

Since 2021, no other player has scored more rushing TDs (38) than Hurts. Not even a RB. And most of those scores found no one pushing his tush.

Hurts is heading into just his age-26 season and has avoided major injuries so far in his career.

Trade Value Chart Check

Similar Values:
  • Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets + 2025 Round 2 rookie pick
  • Multiple 2024 Round 1 rookie picks

 

Build with These Dynasty Tools

The Trade Navigator -- with Dynasty Trade Calculator -- is just one of the tools available to help you build and maintain your perennial contender. Learn more in this short video ...

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