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Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsBijan Robinson's Basic Stats

Bijan Robinson
ADP: N/A
Bye: 12
Experience: 1
Age: 22.8
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.46

Burst Score (Rank): 124.90 (82%)

Bijan Robinson's Weekly Outlook

Week 9 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
77.3 0.51 3.3 26.7 0.15 13.8
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
74.2 0.6 3.4 27.4 0.2 14.3

Bijan Robinson's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#2 Running Back

301.9 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
Not Available 280.2 1268.2 9.13 5.7 1.7 59.3 479.8 2.74

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsBijan Robinson's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Robinson escapes an Arthur Smith offense where he was underutilized and is now in an offense that figures to lean heavily on its primary RB.

Upgrading at QB this offseason should also provide more scoring opportunities for Robinson in the red zone and continue his use as a receiver out of the backfield.

His first-round ADP is appropriate for his talent and we have him slotted similarly in our 2024 RB rankings.

Robinson’s volume and talent solidify him as a consistent RB1 producer with potential to be the highest-scoring RB this season.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Robinson’s 1,463 total yards ranked sixth among RBs. His 51 catches ranked 10th.
  • He did not miss any games due to injury.
  • Robinson ranked 14th among RBs in PPR points (220.2) and 16th in points per game (10.6).
    • He finished RB12 or better six times. He recorded six games between RB13 and RB24.
  • He ranked 35th among all ball carriers in rushing success rate at 43.5%.
  • He played 68% of the Falcon’s offensive snaps last season. In those 16 games, he averaged:
    • 12.7 carries
    • 59.25 rushing yards
    • 0.25 rushing TDs
    • 4.9 targets (16.5% share)
    • 3.2 catches
    • 24 receiving yards
    • 0.19 receiving TDs
  • Robinson was a very effective runner as a rookie. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year, he ranked:
    • 28th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
    • 13th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
    • 12th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
  • He showed promise in receiving metrics as well. Among 43 RBs with 30+ targets, Robinson ranked:
    • 25th in PFF receiving grade
    • 20th in yards per route run

What to Expect in 2024

  • Robinson will play under HC Raheem Morris and first-time OC and play-caller Zac Robinson.
    • Robinson has been on the Rams’ staff since 2019 under Sean McVay, working as the QB coach and pass game coordinator since 2022.
    • While Robinson was on staff, the Rams averaged 456.6 rushes per season.
    • The primary RB had 47.17% of the rushing attempts during that time.
  • Kirk Cousins signed with the Falcons and will provide a significant QB upgrade.
    • Last season Cousins had a superior 85.1 PFF passing grade compared to Desmond Ridder (53.2) and Taylor Heinicke (48.5)
  • The Falcons are expected to be pretty good. They lead the NFC South with a 9.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
  • This expectation of success is largely due to Cousins joining the team. The Falcons’ Super Bowl odds jumped from +4000 before Cousins to +2800 after he signed.
  • Robinson enters his 2nd season at age-22. According to our aging curve research, a RB with Robinson’s profile produces at 94% of his peak value at 22.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Bijan Robinson, RB ATL

7:35pm EDT 10/20/24

Bijan Robinson Hitting His Stride

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson looks like he is finally hitting his stride ending with 21 carries against the Seahawks for 103 yards and a TD. He also caught 3-of-5 targets for 40 yards. He had 24 touches while Tyler Allgeier only had six.

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Falcons RB Bijan Robinson (hamstring) is not listed on the final Week 6 injury report. He was added to the injury report on Thursday and limited in practice, but he put in a full practice on Friday. It all suggests that Robinson will be ready for his usual role in Sunday's get-right spot vs. the Panthers' 31st-ranked RB defense.

View all Bijan Robinson Shark Bites »

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson was added to the injury report and limited in Thursday's practice with a hamstring. He was on last week's injury report with a hamstring before playing vs. the Bucs, but this mid-week addition is worrisome. We'll update Robinson's status on Friday afternoon, if not sooner. His absence would make RB Tyler Allgeier a virtual must-start in fantasy lineups in a great matchup against the Panthers.

View all Bijan Robinson Shark Bites »

The Falcons scored 36 points and produced 550 yards of total offense in Thursday night's win over the Bucs. Surely Bijan Robinson had a big game. Right? Nope. He finished with 77 scoreless yards. Atlanta went pass-heavy in this one, throwing 59 passes vs. 18 runs. Robinson handled 12 of those runs and produced 61 yards (5.1 yards per carry). The highlight was a 28-yarder at the end of the third quarter that included impressive burst and balance. Robinson, though, was not very involved in the passing game. His three targets tied for fifth on the team and were just 5.1% of the Falcons' total. Robinson caught all three for 16 yards.

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Falcons RB Bijan Robinson only ran the ball seven times for 28 yards, though he did catch four passes for 46 yards. He was actually outrushed by RB Tyler Allgeier who ran the ball eight times for 60 yards.

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Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Bijan Robinson, RB ATL
Dynasty MVP 93.4
Position Rank #1 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
648
1,045
1,857
Dynasty Write-up
Robinson profiled as the best RB prospect since Saquon Barkley. Thickly built and explosive, the Texas product simply never earned a consistent role under HC Arthur Smith. With Smith out of town, Robinson (and the entire Atlanta offense) could take a sizable step forward in 2024.
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