Fantasy Football Sleepers 2024

 

Is there a better feeling than nailing a fantasy football sleeper?

You get a few puzzled looks from your leaguemates when you draft him.

By November, that same guy is dumping fantasy points on your opponents.

There are lots of ways to define a fantasy football sleeper. We’re going with any player typically available in the double-digit rounds of drafts.

But the key point is -- these guys are set to return big value for your fantasy team as late-round picks.

Without further ado, here are our four favorite 2024 fantasy football sleepers.

    

QB Sleepers

Jayden Daniels, Rookie

Born to score fantasy points

Daniels has yet to play an NFL snap. We don’t even know which team he’ll be suiting up for in 2024.

So how can we already feel confident in tabbing him a fantasy football sleeper?

Because Daniels’ college profile suggests he’ll be excellent in two areas that are key for QB fantasy production: Deep passing and running.

Deep-Ball Maven

Daniels led all 125 qualifying FBS QBs with a huge 11.5 yards per pass attempt last year.

He was deadly throwing deep, completing 35 of 55 passes 20+ yards downfield for 1,347 yards, 22 TDs, and 0 INTs.

Daniels led the FBS in throws 20+ yards downfield in all of these categories:

An Elite Runner

Daniels also racked up 1,134 rushing yards with 10 TDs in his Heisman-winning 2023 campaign.

And if we remove the negative yardage from sacks taken, Daniels climbs to 1,250 rushing yards on 10.4 yards per carry. 

Explosive as any QB we’ve seen since at least Lamar Jackson, Daniels had eight runs of 15+ yards last year, including this 85-yard TD vs. Florida.

How High is the Fantasy Ceiling?

We’ll see exactly where Daniels lands in this spring’s draft, but he’s widely expected to be a top-3 pick.

And if he gets that type of draft capital, he’ll likely start most or all of the season. 12 of the 15 QBs picked with a top-3 selection over the past 10 years have started at least 12 games as rookies.

When Daniels is on the field, he’ll be a good bet for top-10 fantasy production, with upside well beyond that.

Of 31 QBs with 500+ rushing yards in a season over the last 10 years:

    

RB Sleepers

Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints

Rookie Season Wiped Out by Injuries

Miller’s 2023 rookie season was marred by injury.

A sprained MCL suffered in his final college game kept Miller sidelined for much of last offseason. He reinjured that knee in the preseason opener and then hurt his hamstring late in August.

He missed the first two games of the season, played in the next seven, and then missed the next seven with an ankle injury.

Miller wound up with just 41 carries and 11 targets across eight outings.

Reasons for Optimism

He saved his best for last, though.

With Alvin Kamara sidelined for the season finale, Miller split work with Jamaal Williams, taking 13 carries for 73 yards (5.6 YPC) and a score against a Falcons team that finished 11th in run defense DVOA.

Consider it a reminder of this guy’s talent.

Miller averaged 7.4 yards per carry across his first two seasons at TCU and then had a huge 2022 junior campaign. He ranked top 15 in the nation in rushing yards (1,399) and TDs (17). Miller ripped off 6.2 yards per carry and ranked 27th among 168 qualifying RBs in PFF rushing grade.

Declining Competition

Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams remain under contract with the Saints for 2024 – which might be good news for Miller.

Kamara will turn 29 in July. And, although he has remained effective as a pass-catcher, he’s clearly declining as a runner. Kamara averaged just 3.9 yards per carry last year, finishing with career lows in both missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt.

Williams was simply one of the worst runners in the NFL last year. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:

This backfield is ripe with opportunity for the explosive, fresh-legged Miller. His ceiling projection is 230 PPR points, which would have landed him inside the top-12 RBs last season.

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3D Projections help you land the fantasy football sleepers you need to win your league.

   

WR Sleepers

Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers

A Sneaky-Strong Rookie Season

Wicks didn’t see consistent enough playing time to be a real fantasy factor as a rookie last year.

But his underlying metrics show a guy we want to invest in heading into Year 2.

Wicks drew a target on 20% of his pass routes and averaged 1.94 yards per route.

Those marks ranked 43rd and 22nd, respectively, among 78 qualifying WRs.

More importantly, Wicks beat teammates Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs in both targets and yards per route.

Target Competition

Jayden Reed led all three guys in both of those categories as part of a strong rookie season. He’s likely locked into a big 2024 role. Watson’s big-play ability and second-round draft capital make him a good bet for heavy snaps.

But there’s an opportunity for Wicks to snatch the No. 3 WR job from Doubs, who has been just OK through two NFL seasons.

An Ascending Passing Game

This is a passing game that we want pieces of in 2024.

Last year’s Packers ranked 12th in passing yards and third in TDs. 

QB Jordan Love was especially excellent over the second half of the season, ranking top 3 league-wide in completion rate, passing yards, passing TDs, and PFF passing grade.

Still just 25 and entering his second season as Green Bay’s starter, Love could certainly take another step forward in 2024.

        

TE Sleepers

Cole Kmet, Bears

Better Than You Think

Kmet has quietly developed into one of the better pass-catching TEs in the league.

He has improved his yards per target, yards per route, and PFF receiving grade each season.

Among 45 TEs with 30+ targets last year, Kmet ranked:

Only three other TEs ranked top-9 in all three categories: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and George Kittle.

Nice company!

Kmet has fared well in target share, too, ranking among the top 12 TEs in each of the last three seasons.

A Volume Problem

But his fantasy production has been capped by Chicago’s low passing volume.

The Bears ranked eighth in pass attempts in Kmet’s 2020 rookie season but have finished 23rd, 27th, and 32nd the past three years.

That’s bound to change in 2024.

Play-Calling Boost

Chicago canned OC Luke Getsy shortly after the 2023 season wrapped up and hired OC Shane Waldron a couple of weeks later.

Waldron spent the past three seasons as Seattle's OC, where the Seahawks ranked 31st, 15th, and 17th in pass attempts. Waldron’s attack finished top-14 in passing yards the last two years and top-9 in pass-offense DVOA in all three.

He should bring a more voluminous and effective passing game to Chicago.

(Likely) QB Upgrade

Perhaps more importantly, the Bears look set to make a change at QB, from run-prone Justin Fields to rookie Caleb Williams, who has as much arm talent as any QB to enter the league in recent memory.

That move would likely shift the Bears in an even pass-heavier direction.

If Kmet can maintain his previous target shares and efficiency metrics on increased passing volume, he could threaten for top-5 fantasy production.

TIP

See where Cole Kmet sits in the 2024 fantasy football TE rankings.

     

Deep Sleepers to Monitor

Michael Carter, RB, Cardinals

James Conner remained very effective last year and will return as Arizona’s lead back in 2024.

But there’s room for Carter to carve out a secondary role behind Conner and, more importantly, win the fantasy handcuff job.

Conner has had trouble staying healthy, missing multiple games in all seven of his NFL seasons.

That gives Carter plenty of handcuff appeal. He sports a solid 4.2 career yards-per-carry average and has tallied 101 receptions across his first three pro campaigns.

Zay Jones, WR, Jaguars

Jones missed eight games and most of another with injuries last year.

But he averaged 7.4 targets on an 18.5% share in eight healthy games. That’s a full-season pace of 126 targets that would have landed Jones 21st among WRs.

He’s capable of repeating that level of volume in 2024. Remember that Jones saw 121 targets back in 2022, posting an 82-823-5 line and WR26 PPR finish.

Jacksonville swapped out Calvin Ridley for Gabriel Davis in free agency, which is a net gain for Jones' target potential.

Marvin Mims, WR, Broncos

Mims flashed a few times as a rookie last year, finishing with a big 17.1 yards per catch. 

He didn’t see enough playing time or claim enough targets to be a real fantasy factor, but we’re not ruling out the possibility of a big second-year leap from a guy who entered the NFL with a strong prospect profile.

Mims broke out as a true freshman at Oklahoma and led the Sooners in receiving yards in all three years on campus. He left school with a huge 19.5 yards-per-catch average and blazed a 4.38-second 40 time at the Combine.

Mims’ fantasy value got a big boost when the Broncos traded WR Jerry Jeudy to the Browns in March.

Demario Douglas, WR, Patriots

After a buzzy summer, Douglas caught 49 balls as a sixth-round rookie last year. 

In eight games with a snap rate of 60+%, he averaged:

Those numbers look more impressive when you consider that New England ranked 28th in passing. Douglas’ 49 catches were actually second-most on the team, behind only RB Ezekiel Elliott’s 51.

If the Patriots find an answer at QB this offseason, Douglas could take a nice second-year leap.      

      

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