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Draft Strategy: Tips & Tricks
7 Expert-Level Drafting Tips
1. Use Unique Rankings To Give Yourself an Edge
Many of your competitors will be drafting off of the same rankings (think: ESPN or Yahoo). Tough to get an edge that way. Put in the work. Stay up-to-date on the news. And don’t be afraid to break away from the herd when it comes to your rankings. It’s an easy way to out-draft your competition.
2. Weaponize ADP To Outsmart Your Competition
ADP is like having your opponent’s playbook. Whether subconsciously or not, ADP has a huge influence on draft behavior. Drafters rarely stray too far from it. Knowing which players your opponents are likely – and unlikely – to draft next can give you a big strategic advantage.
3. Catch League-Winning Breakout Candidates
Leagues are won by nailing one or two breakout late-round picks. Think Puka Nacua or Nico Collins last year. When you’re on the clock and deciding between two or more players, always ask yourself: “Which of these guys is more likely to be the league-winning, had-to-have player?” Then take that guy.
4. Learn to Predict Your Opponents’ Picks
Drafting is part science (rankings, ADP, positional value) and part art. No two drafts will play out same. It’s your job to recognize the flow of your draft and react accordingly. It’s especially important to track positional needs. For example, if teams near you have selected a bunch of WRs but few RBs, you can assume they’ll be targeting RBs soon. Get out ahead of them and snag a RB with your next pick.
5. Discover the Next Kyren Williams
Let your league mates waste later-round picks on handcuffing their own RBs. You can get the jump on them by targeting RBs behind fragile starters. That was Williams, Devin Singletary, and Ty Chandler this time last year. And we’re eyeing some intriguing new candidates for 2024.
6. Draft Immobile QBs in 2024 (Wait … What?!)
Running QBs are fantasy gold. Problem is, that’s no longer a secret. In many cases, the pendulum has swung too far toward those guys. And that’s turned some non-mobile QBs into values. Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, and Matt Stafford pop as undervalued QBs in 2024 drafts – despite their lack of rushing yards.
7. Chase opportunity at RB… and talent at WR
Fantasy scoring at RB is closely tied to playing time and touches. Target RBs who project to get the rock a lot. WR is a more talent-driven position. Targets are earned, not given. That’s why advanced metrics like targets per route and yards per route run should be key factors in your WR rankings.
3 Fatal Draft Mistakes
1. Base Your Rankings On What Has Changed … Not Last Year’s Stats
Weighing last year’s final stats into this year’s player rankings could cost you on draft day. Too much changes from year to year. That includes coaching staffs, offensive schemes, rookies, free agents, etc. That’s why it’s crucial that you live in the present – and weigh all the offseason changes when creating your 2024 player rankings.
2. Don’t Be Stubborn About Your Pre-Draft Plan
Instead, be flexible. You might go in with a Zero-RB strategy. But if enough teams grab WRs by the second round – a workhorse RB might fall into your lap. That’s when it’s time to scoop up the player who will best help your team win … not reach for a position because it was part of your pre-draft plan.
3. Don’t Pass Up Player Value to Chase Positional ‘Need’
NFL teams that try to fill “needs” (instead of adopting the BPA “best player available” model) most often crap out on their draft picks. Same holds true for you. Reaching for a “need” player most often blows your chances at winning. And remember: Drafting the BPA gives you valuable trade chips down the road.
Advanced Draft Strategy
7 Key Strategies for Tailored Player Rankings
The most advanced fantasy football draft strategy for any format, and any league, is a “Value Based Draft Strategy.” It can take different forms, and be based on any number of draft-value indicators.
Draft Sharks' value-based draft strategy actually has 17 Draft Value Indicators. Here are 7 crucial ones you can use in your draft:
1. Master Cross Positional Value
Which positions are most valuable in your league? Maybe QBs in a superflex. How do RBs stack up vs. WRs in PPR leagues? Understanding values across positions involves using a specific algorithm to analyze player values. It weighs various factors like scoring rules, starting-lineup requirements, ADP, and league settings.
2. Track Positional Scarcity on the Fly
This one is super important but also super hard. To measure positional scarcity, you need to track each pick – and see how it impacts the player pool. If there are nine QBs taken by the fourth round, that position becomes scarce. And QBs suddenly increase in value in your draft.
3. Prioritize Players With Greater Upside
You’re in the 11th round and torn between three players with roughly the same draft value. You need to highlight the player with the highest fantasy ceiling. Then make sure he doesn't slip by you in the heat of the draft. It might sound simple, but it’s mission-critical to identify these breakout players and pull the trigger when the time is right.
4. Look Out for “Bust” Red Flags
You probably know the red flags of a potential bust. But are you factoring them into your value of each player? Age, declining production, bad offensive line, competition for touches, a new offensive scheme that de-emphasizes a player’s role. Don’t blow your draft capital on a player who is screaming “bust!”
5. Use a Scientific Injury Risk Assessment
You know the scenario… You spend a second-round pick on a stud WR – and in Week 2, he suffers a soft-tissue injury and misses the next four weeks. Brutal. Injuries aren’t 100% predictable. But you can get reliable scientific data to avoid the biggest potential injury risk players.
6. Always Use Correlated ADP
This one is huge. Using ADP (Average Draft Position) is the ultimate measure to find value. The problem is this: If you use a redraft PPR ADP to prepare for your non-PPR Dynasty league, you’re doing yourself more harm than good. Find reliable ADP that is correlated to your specific rules and format.
7. Avoid Bye-Week Conflicts
You’d think this one would be so easy. But you know the truth. You’re in the heat of your draft, you’re on the clock, and bang … you double-up on the same bye week at a crucial position. You’re now forced to fix that mistake at some point in your draft – or later in your season.
Key Insights: There are a lot of factors that go into drafting for true player value. It’s not just about using “position tiers” or employing a “Zero” or “Hero” RB strategy. It’s about using some scientific metrics and educated guesses in predicting player production. And how you and your opponents behave during critical times in your draft.
How To Execute This Strategy: You’ve got a lot to focus on if you want to execute these draft strategies in real-time – amid the chaos of your draft. In fact, it’s humanly impossible for anyone to implement every key strategy… AND work out every algorithm essential to a winning draft. The real solution is to get real-time help from an AI “Draft War Room.”
Discover the Live-Draft Sync That Strategizes While You Draft
If what you’ve read so far makes sense, here’s a draft tool you need to learn more about.
It’s actually TWO tools that pair together so you can dominate your draft with one super tool!
A live-draft sync super-powered by a “Draft War Room” (DWR)
This super draft tool automatically re-ranks players on your draft board in real-time. Those dynamic player values are based on a variety of factors including positional scarcity, team needs, injury risk, breakout potential, and bust risk. In fact, there are 17 draft-value indicators it calculates in real-time to come up with your player suggestions.
How It Works:
You literally click 3 times, and your league and draft are live-synced. From there, you’re on the road to draft domination. And it works across multiple platforms (ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, Underdog, and Sleeper, to name a few). For multiple league formats (dynasty, rookie, keeper, best ball, auction, superflex – and, of course, redraft).
What It Means For You:
Bottom line is, you get dynamic player values customized to your league. Simply. And in real-time. When it's your turn to pick, the Draft War Room offers instant player suggestions tailored to everything happening in your draft. You’ll be unburdened from the pressure of being "on the clock." While at the same time getting specific player suggestions that are scientifically based and strategically sound.
Key Insights: No one who’s serious about winning their draft can use 2014 technology in the competitive environment of 2024. It’s really that simple. We know too much about the science behind successful drafting to keep basing decisions on “gut” and “educated guesses.” Yes, sometimes we roll with those two things. But we need to have a lot more (technology) at our disposal to be consistent fantasy football champions.
Way to Execute This Strategy: Make sure you pick a “live-draft sync” over a simple “league sync.” A league sync has too many steps to set up, can break down during your draft, and doesn't adjust player values in real-time throughout your draft. To learn more about the live-sync option, check out this page explaining our live-sync tool.
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Round-by-Round Draft Guide
Fantasy drafts are hard. There’s a lot to think about each time you’re on the clock:
- Scoring system
- Positional value
- Team needs
- ADP
- Upside
- Injury risk
It’s easy to be overwhelmed and make costly draft mistakes.
And is there anything worse than seeing your top picks falter while your opponents land the late-round league winners?
The solution: A round-by-round draft strategy guide to maximize value with every pick.
The 12-team PPR draft strategy guide below will take you through top targets for every pick of your draft.
We’re using our Dynamic Most Valuable Player values and recent ADP to pinpoint the best picks in each round.
Consider this your game plan heading into your draft.
No fantasy football draft goes exactly as planned, of course. You’ll likely need to adjust your strategy throughout the draft to maximize value.
That’s where the customized, dynamic cheat sheet on your Draft War Room comes into play, instantly analyzing 17 value indicators each time you’re on the clock to help you make the best pick.
The Draft War Room is the most powerful drafting tool in fantasy football.
Combine the Draft War Room with this round-by-round game plan and you’ll be armed with the ultimate fantasy football draft guide.
Note: This strategy guide assumes a 16-round draft and starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K and 1 DST. The Draft War Room will help you adjust your strategy if your league settings are different.
Fantasy Draft Guide for Pick 1, 2, or 3
Round 1
Top target: Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey’s 24.7 PPR points per game last year beat all other RBs by more than 3.0. He set career highs in numerous categories, including:
- Yards per carry
- Yards after contact per attempt
- Missed tackles forced per attempt
McCaffrey turns just 28 this June and should still have at least one more big fantasy season in him.
Next best: CeeDee Lamb
If you miss out on McCaffrey, turn your attention to an elite WR. Lamb tops our fantasy football WR rankings after leading the position in PPR points last year.
The 25-year-old has grown his target share and yards per route run each season.
Lamb returns to the same offense with the same QB in 2024, making him a safe fantasy selection.
Other option: Tyreek Hill
Rounds 2 & 3
Top targets: Jaylen Waddle & Josh Jacobs
Waddle missed three games and parts of a couple more last season. And he got unlucky in the TD department, scoring on just four of 72 catches. Yet he still finished 22nd among WRs in PPR points per game. Waddle set a career high and ranked eighth among 84 qualifying WRs in yards per route run. This is a young, explosive WR in a strong offense that still boasts WR1 upside.
Jacobs might look like a reach based on ADP, but this is where he should be going in drafts. He inked a big four-year, $48 million deal with the Packers in free agency and is seemingly set up for a workhorse role in an ascending offense.
Next best: Travis Etienne & Cooper Kupp
Etienne is a nice fallback if you miss on Jacobs. He ranked third at his position in PPR points last year., tallying the fourth-most carries and seventh-most targets among RBs. The 25-year-old former first-round pick is a safe bet for another hefty workload in 2024.
Puka Nacua might be the Rams' new No. 1 WR. But the gap between he and Kupp likely isn't as big as current ADP suggests. In 11 healthy regular-season games together, Nacua out-targeted Kupp just 95 to 94. Kupp's 14.6 PPR points per game in those outings ranked 20th among WRs.
Other options: Deebo Samuel, Chris Olave
Rounds 4 & 5
Top targets: Isiah Pacheco & Travis Kelce
A pair of Chiefs? Why not?
Pacheco finished RB14 in PPR points per game last year – and was even better in games without RB Jerick McKinnon, who is still a free agent. We'll see if Kansas City adds a RB in the draft, but Pacheco is a good bet to operate as lead back in 2024.
Kelce’s best days are clearly behind him at 34. He no longer projects to dominate TE in fantasy points. But he still sits atop the fantasy football TE rankings and is coming two or three rounds cheaper than last year.
Next best: Mark Andrews & Tee Higgins
If you miss out on Kelce, Andrews is a nice Plan B as an elite fantasy TE. His PPR scoring average in nine healthy games last year would have ranked third at his position.
Higgins battled through injuries last year but still flashed week-winning upside with four top-10 finishes among his 12 outings. He ranked top-14 in PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022 and is just 25.
Other options: James Cook, Rachaad White, Christian Kirk, Keenan Allen
Rounds 6 & 7
Top targets: James Conner & Joe Burrow
Conner remained productive and efficient last year.
Conner tallied career highs and ranked top 5 among 49 qualifying RBs in:
- Yards per carry
- Rush yards over expected per attempt
- Yards after contact per attempt
- Pro Football Focus rushing grade
He's set to again operate as Arizona's clear lead back in 2024 and is a big-time value at this point of your fantasy draft.
Burrow and his WRs dealt with injuries throughout last season. But he’s an easy rebound candidate with better health after finishing QB7 and QB4 the previous two years.
Next best: Dak Prescott & DeAndre Hopkins
Prescott sits just behind Burrow in the fantasy football QB rankings, and there’s a sizable gap behind them. You could even consider taking Prescott over Burrow if you took CeeDee Lamb in Round 1.
The Titans paid up for WR Calvin Ridley in free agency -- but Hopkins easily beat Ridley in key metrics last year like yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. We're betting on Hopkins leading the team in targets this season. And there will be more targets to go around with the arrival of pass-leaning HC Brian Callahan.
Other options: Alvin Kamara, D'Andre Swift, Diontae Johnson, Chris Godwin
Rounds 8 & 9
Top targets: Javonte Williams & Jaylen Warren
This is a nice spot for RB value. Don’t be afraid to grab Williams and Warren here if you only took one RB in the first seven rounds.
Williams’ 2023 inefficiency was no surprise coming off a nasty knee injury. He should be much closer to pre-injury form this season. He averaged 4.4 yards per carry and caught 59 passes across his first 21 NFL games.
Warren finished 21st among RBs in PPR points last year on the strength of 61 catches. He could get a boost in rushing volume in 2024 with the arrival of new OC Arthur Smith.
Next best: Courtland Sutton & Jake Ferguson
Sutton probably won't score another 10 TDs like he did last year -- especially with Denver's question mark at QB. But Jerry Jeudy's departure leaves him as the Broncos' clear No. 1 WR. He's a value in the eighth or ninth round of your draft.
Ferguson finished TE9 in PPR points last year, despite underachieving in the TD department. He’ll remain a big part of Dallas’ passing game in 2024 and is a nice value here if you didn’t land Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews.
Other options: Zamir White, Jakobi Meyers, Mike Williams
Rounds 10 & 11
Top targets: Tyler Lockett & Jonathon Brooks
Death, taxes, and Tyler Lockett being undervalued. He finished with his fewest PPR points last year since 2017 but still ranked 34th among WRs. He’s currently outside the top 50 WRs in ADP.
Brooks is our top-rated rookie in the 2024 RB class. He's recovering from a November ACL tear but is expected to be ready for the start of the season. The talented 6'0, 216-pounder has three-down potential and is an upside target at this point of your draft.
TIP
Prioritizing high-upside players in the later rounds is 1 of 7 key tenets of our fantasy football draft strategy.
Next best: Curtis Samuel & Trevor Lawrence
Samuel inked a three-year, $24 million deal in free agency with Buffalo, where he'll reunite with OC Joe Brady. Brady was Panthers OC in 2020 when Samuel turned in a career-best WR23 PPR finish in 2020. He's locked in as the starting slot receiver for a high-scoring Bills offense.
Lawrence is a nice value here if you're still looking for a QB1. He's finished as a top-10 fantasy QB in each of the past two seasons.
Other options: Jared Goff, Gabriel Davis, Jerry Jeudy, Dallas Goedert
Rounds 12 & 13
Top targets: Kendre Miller & Dontayvion Wicks
Injuries marred Miller's rookie season. But he was an exciting prospect heading into the league last offseason and flashed in Week 18. Miller finds himself in a 2024 Saints backfield with a pair of declining veterans in Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams. He's one of our favorite 2024 fantasy football sleepers.
You'll also find Wicks in that Sleepers article. He beat both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs in targets per route and yards per route as a rookie last year and has a chance in 2024 to win a top-3 WR job on an ascending Packers offense.
Next best: Jahan Dotson & Pat Freiermuth
Dotson is coming off an underwhelming 2023 season but is now super cheap for a 24-year-old, former first-round pick. He remains a strong bet for a top-two WR job this year. And Washington will upgrade at QB with the second overall pick of this spring's draft.
Freiermuth disappointed last year, but this offseason has been good to him. The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson.
Other options: Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, MarShawn Lloyd, Jaylen Wright, Brandin Cooks, Zay Jones, Darnell Mooney, Joshua Palmer, Michael Mayer
Rounds 14, 15 & 16
Top targets: High-upside bench stash, K & DST
Pinpoint a player with upside in Round 14. Your Draft War Room will flip to Upside Mode in the second half of your draft and highlight players with lofty ceilings.
Use your final two picks on a K and DST. Aim for a K on a high-scoring offense and a DST with sack and takeaway upside.
We’ll have more advice on K and DST targets after the NFL schedule comes out.
Fantasy Draft Guide for Pick 4, 5, or 6
Round 1
Top target: Ja'Marr Chase
With a healthy Joe Burrow over the first nine games of last season, Chase averaged 7.7 catches, 91 yards, and 0.6 TDs per game.
An elite talent in the prime of his career, Chase is a safe pick with the upside to lead all WRs in fantasy points.
Next best: Justin Jefferson
Injuries cost Jefferson seven games and parts of two others last year. But his PPR scoring average in the other eight would have led all WRs.
Jefferson also set career highs last year in:
- Target share (30.0% in eight healthy games)
- Yards per route run
- Pro Football Focus receiving grade
Minnesota's QB situation sans Kirk Cousins is a slight concern for Jefferson's outlook. But note that he averaged 7.5 catches, 119 yards, and 0.5 TDs across four healthy games without Cousins last year.
Other options: Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson
Round 2
Top target: Drake London
London disappointed fantasy owners last year but remained strong on a per-target and per-route basis.
Now he's freed from Arthur Smith and in what should be a much pass-heavier offense under new HC Zac Robinson. And he got a big QB upgrade with the arrival of Kirk Cousins.
London is a prime 2024 bounce-back candidate.
TIP
London headlines our list of 2024 fantasy football breakouts.
Next best: De’Von Achane
Achane’s 11 games last year included PPR explosions of:
- 51.3 points
- 27.0 points
- 25.3 points
- 23.7 points
- 23.5 points
He averaged an absurd 7.8 yards per carry and took 13 of his 103 attempts (12.6%) for 15+ yards.
The 188-pounder will never be a workhorse. But he doesn’t need to be to deliver bunches of fantasy points thanks to his big-play ability.
Other options: Deebo Samuel, Chris Olave
Round 3
Top target: Josh Jacobs
Jacobs struggled last year but is just two seasons removed from a RB3 PPR finish.
He's still just 26 and is teed up for a bounce-back campaign after inking a big four-year, $48 million deal with the Packers that should set him up for workhorse duties.
Next best: Jaylen Waddle
Waddle missed three games and parts of a couple more last season. And he got unlucky in the TD department, scoring on just four of 72 catches.
Yet he still finished 22nd among WRs in PPR points per game. Waddle set a career high and ranked eighth among 84 qualifying WRs in yards per route run.
This is a young, explosive WR in a strong offense that still boasts WR1 upside.
Other options: Travis Etienne, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel
Round 4
Top target: Travis Kelce
Kelce’s 14.8 PPR points per game last year were his fewest since 2016 – but still led all TEs.
The 34-year-old’s best days are behind him. But he’s still a good bet to provide a significant weekly and season-long advantage at his position.
In fact, Kelce sits atop our 2024 TE rankings – and is coming two or three rounds cheaper than last year.
Next best: Isiah Pacheco
Pacheco finished RB14 in PPR points per game last year – and was even better in games without RB Jerick McKinnon, who is still a free agent.
We'll see if Kansas City adds a RB in the draft, but Pacheco is a good bet to operate as lead back in 2024.
Other option: Tee Higgins
Round 5
Top target: Mark Andrews
If you didn’t land Travis Kelce in Round 4, prioritize Andrews here.
His 1.96 yards per route run last year ranked third among 33 TEs with 40+ targets. He has now ranked top 6 in YPRR at his position in all six of his NFL seasons.
And Andrews’ PPR scoring average in nine healthy games last year would have ranked third at his position.
Mark Andrews' ranks among TEs in yards per route:
- 2018 - 4th
- 2019 - 2nd
- 2020 - 4th
- 2021 - 3rd
- 2022 - 3rd
- 2023 - 3rd
Next best: Christian Kirk
Kirk finished 12th among WRs in his 2022 Jaguars debut and was sitting 24th through 11 healthy games last year.
He's back in the same offense with the same QB this season. And Jacksonville's swap of Gabriel Davis for Calvin Ridley gives Kirk more target upside.
Other options: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Mixon
Round 6
Top target: Joe Burrow
Burrow looks like one of the best QB values in early fantasy drafts.
He and his WRs dealt with injuries throughout last season. But he’s an easy rebound candidate with better health after finishing QB7 and QB4 the previous two years.
Next best: DeAndre Hopkins
The Titans paid up for WR Calvin Ridley in free agency -- but Hopkins easily beat Ridley in key metrics last year like yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
We're betting on Hopkins leading the team in targets this season. And there will be more targets to go around with the arrival of pass-leaning HC Brian Callahan.
Other options: Alvin Kamara, Diontae Johnson, Chris Godwin
Round 7
Top target: James Conner
Conner remained excellent in his age-28 season last year, setting career highs and ranking top 5 among 49 qualifying RBs in:
- Yards per carry
- Rush yards over expected per attempt
- Yards after contact per attempt
- PFF rushing grade
Conner finished 13th at his position in PPR points per game and should again be Arizona's clear lead back in 2024. He's a big-time value here.
DMVP values identify exactly what a player is worth in YOUR league.
Next best: Dak Prescott
His future in Dallas beyond 2024 might be uncertain, but Prescott is a strong fantasy value for this year.
He's coming off a QB3 finish and returns his top three targets in WR CeeDee Lamb, TE Jake Ferguson, and WR Brandin Cooks.
Other options: Diontae Johnson, Chris Godwin, Evan Engram
Round 8
Top target: Javonte Williams
This is a nice range for RB value.
Williams’ 2023 inefficiency was no surprise coming off a nasty knee injury. He should be much closer to pre-injury form this season.
Remember that Williams averaged 4.4 yards per carry and caught 59 passes across his first 21 NFL games.
Next best: Jaylen Warren
Warren finished 21st among RBs in PPR points last year. He caught 61 balls while also ranking third among 49 qualifying RBs in yards per carry, rush yards over expected per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt.
Warren could get a boost in rushing volume in 2024 with the arrival of OC Arthur Smith.
Other options: Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Courtland Sutton, Jake Ferguson
Round 9
Top target: Tyler Lockett
Death, taxes, and Tyler Lockett being undervalued.
He finished with his fewest PPR points last year since 2017 but still ranked 34th among WRs. He’s currently outside the top 50 WRs in ADP.
Next best: Zamir White
White exits free agency as the clear favorite for the Raiders' starting job. Josh Jacobs is done, and HC Antonio Pierce labeled Alexander Mattison a depth piece.
White ranked ninth among RBs in PPR points as Vegas' lead back over the final four weeks of last season.
Other options: Brian Robinson, Courtland Sutton, Jake Ferguson, Dallas Goedert
Round 10
Top target: Jonathon Brooks
Brooks is our top-rated rookie in the 2024 RB class. He's recovering from a November ACL tear but is expected to be ready for the start of the season.
The talented 6'0, 216-pounder has three-down potential and is a high-upside shot at this point of your draft.
Next best: Curtis Samuel
Samuel inked a three-year, $24 million deal in free agency with Buffalo, where he'll reunite with OC Joe Brady. Brady was Panthers OC in 2020 when Samuel turned in a career-best WR23 PPR finish in 2020.
He's locked in as the starting slot receiver for a high-scoring Bills offense.
Other options: Trevor Lawrence, Chuba Hubbard, Gabriel Davis, Jerry Jeudy
Round 11
Top target: Jayden Daniels
With a lethal combination of deep passing and rushing, Daniels will have top-five fantasy upside as soon as he hits the field.
And as a likely top-three pick in the draft, he has a good shot to start Week 1.
Washington would be an excellent landing spot.
Next best: Gabriel Davis
Davis will never be a well-rounded, consistently productive WR.
But that doesn't mean he can't help your fantasy team. Even in what felt like a disappointing 2023 season, he scored as a top-14 WR in PPR points in five different weeks.
The Jaguars gave him a three-year, $39 million deal in free agency, essentially guaranteeing Davis a big role this season.
Other options: Chuba Hubbard, Zach Charbonnet, Jerry Jeudy
Round 12
Top targets: Dontayvion Wicks
Wicks beat both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs in targets per route and yards per route as a rookie last year.
He has a chance in 2024 to win a top-three WR job on an ascending Packers offense.
Next best: Pat Freiermuth
Freiermuth disappointed last year, but this offseason has been good to him.
The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson.
Other options: Aaron Rodgers, Jaylen Wright, Jahan Dotson, Brandin Cooks, Joshua Palmer
Round 13
Top target: Kendre Miller
Injuries marred Miller's rookie season. But he was an exciting prospect heading into the league last offseason and flashed in Week 18.
Miller finds himself in a 2024 Saints backfield with a pair of declining veterans in Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams.
He's one of our favorite 2024 fantasy football sleepers.
Next best: Zay Jones
Jones averaged 7.4 targets on an 18.5% share in eight healthy games last year. That’s a full-season pace of 126 targets that would have landed Jones 21st among WRs.
That followed an 82-823-5 line and WR26 PPR finish in 2022.
Jacksonville swapped out Calvin Ridley for Gabriel Davis in free agency, which is a net gain for Jones' target potential this year.
Other options: Deshaun Watson, MarShawn Lloyd, Darnell Mooney, Michael Mayer
Rounds 14, 15 & 16
Top targets: High-upside bench stash, K & DST
Pinpoint a player with upside in Round 14. Your Draft War Room will flip to Upside Mode in the second half of your draft and highlight players with lofty ceilings.
Use your final two picks on a K and DST. Aim for a K on a high-scoring offense and a DST with sack and takeaway upside.
We’ll have more advice on K and DST targets after the NFL schedule is released.
Fantasy Draft Guide for Pick 7, 8, or 9
Round 1
Top target: Breece Hall
Hall is coming off a PPR RB6 finish ... a year after tearing an ACL ... on an offense that lost QB Aaron Rodgers and finished bottom four in total yards and points.
Rodgers is back for 2024, and the Jets made some significant upgrades on the offensive line this offseason.
Hall has the upside to challenge Christian McCaffrey for the RB scoring lead.
Next best: Amon-Ra St. Brown
St. Brown has boosted his catches, receiving yards, receiving TDs, yards per target, and yards per route in each of his first three NFL seasons.
Last year’s monster 119-1,515-10 line landed him third among WRs in PPR points.
With QB Jared Goff and OC Ben Johnson back for 2024, St. Brown is one of the safest picks in fantasy football.
Other option: Puka Nacua
3D projections factor in ceiling and floor to give you a comprehensive look at every player's true fantasy value.
Round 2
Top target: Drake London
London disappointed fantasy owners last year but remained strong on a per-target and per-route basis.
Now he's freed from Arthur Smith and in what should be a much pass-heavier offense under new HC Zac Robinson. And he got a big QB upgrade with the arrival of Kirk Cousins.
London is primed for a career-best season in 2024.
Next best: Jonathon Taylor
Taylor has been dogged by injuries the past two years, missing 12 total games.
But he's still averaged 90 total yards and 0.6 TDs per game across that span -- after topping 2,100 total yards and leading all RBs in fantasy points in 2021.
Still just 25, Taylor is an easy 2024 bounce-back bet in an ascending Colts offense.
Other option: Saquon Barkley, De’Von Achane
Round 3
Top target: Josh Jacobs
Jacobs struggled last year but is just two seasons removed from a RB3 PPR finish.
He's still just 26 and is teed up for a bounce-back campaign after inking a big four-year, $48 million deal with the Packers that should set him up for workhorse duties.
Next best: Jaylen Waddle
Waddle missed three games and parts of a couple more last season. And he got unlucky in the TD department, scoring on just four of 72 catches.
Yet he still finished 22nd among WRs in PPR points per game. Waddle set a career high and ranked eighth among 84 qualifying WRs in yards per route run.
This is a young, explosive WR in a strong offense that still boasts WR1 upside.
Other options: Jalen Hurts, Travis Etienne
Round 4
Top target: Travis Kelce
Kelce’s 14.8 PPR points per game last year were his fewest since 2016 – but still led all TEs.
The 34-year-old’s best days are behind him. But he’s still a good bet to provide a significant weekly and season-long advantage at his position.
In fact, Kelce sits atop our 2024 TE rankings – and is coming two or three rounds cheaper than last year.
Next best: Cooper Kupp
Puka Nacua might be the Rams' new No. 1 WR. But the gap between he and Kupp likely isn't as big as current ADP suggests.
In 11 healthy regular-season games together, Nacua out-targeted Kupp just 95 to 94.
Kupp's 14.6 PPR points per game in those outings ranked 20th among WRs.
Other options: Isiah Pacheco, Tee Higgins
Round 5
Top target: Mark Andrews
If you didn’t land Travis Kelce in Round 4, prioritize Andrews here.
His 1.96 yards per route run last year ranked third among 33 TEs with 40+ targets. He has now ranked top 6 in YPRR at his position in all six of his NFL seasons.
And Andrews’ PPR scoring average in nine healthy games last year would have ranked third at his position.
Next best: Christian Kirk
Kirk finished 12th among WRs in his 2022 Jaguars debut and was sitting 24th through 11 healthy games last year.
He's back in the same offense with the same QB this season. And Jacksonville's swap of Gabriel Davis for Calvin Ridley gives Kirk more target upside.
Other options: Joe Mixon, Ken Walker, Terry McLaurin
Round 6
Top target: Joe Burrow
Burrow looks like one of the best QB values in early fantasy drafts.
Burrow and his WRs dealt with injuries throughout last year. But with better health, he's an easy rebound candidate after finishing QB7 in 2021 and QB4 in 2022.
Next best: DeAndre Hopkins
The Titans paid up for WR Calvin Ridley in free agency -- but Hopkins easily beat Ridley in key metrics last year like yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
We're betting on Hopkins leading the team in targets this season. And there will be more targets to go around with the arrival of pass-leaning HC Brian Callahan.
Other options: Alvin Kamara, Diontae Johnson, Chris Godwin
Round 7
Top target: James Conner
Conner remained excellent in his age-28 season last year, setting career highs and ranking top 5 among 49 qualifying RBs in:
- Yards per carry
- Rush yards over expected per attempt
- Yards after contact per attempt
- PFF rushing grade
Conner finished 13th at his position in PPR points per game and should again be Arizona's clear lead back in 2024.
Next best: Dak Prescott
His future in Dallas beyond 2024 might be uncertain, but Prescott is a strong fantasy value for this year.
He's coming off a QB3 finish and returns his top three targets in WR CeeDee Lamb, TE Jake Ferguson, and WR Brandin Cooks.
Other options: Diontae Johnson, Chris Godwin, Evan Engram
Round 8
Top target: Javonte Williams
This is another nice spot for RB value.
Williams’ 2023 inefficiency was no surprise coming off a nasty knee injury. He should be much closer to pre-injury form this season.
Remember that Williams averaged 4.4 yards per carry and caught 59 passes across his first 21 NFL games.
Next best: Jaylen Warren
Warren finished 21st among RBs in PPR points last year. He caught 61 balls while also ranking third among 49 qualifying RBs in yards per carry, rush yards over expected per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt.
Warren could get a boost in rushing volume in 2024 with the arrival of OC Arthur Smith.
Other options: Kyler Murray, Jake Ferguson, Mike Wiliams
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Round 9
Top target: Tyler Lockett
Death, taxes, and Tyler Lockett being undervalued.
He finished with his fewest PPR points last year since 2017 but still ranked 34th among WRs. He’s currently outside the top 50 WRs in ADP.
Next best: Zamir White
White exits free agency as the clear favorite for the Raiders' starting job. Josh Jacobs is done, and HC Antonio Pierce labeled Alexander Mattison a depth piece.
White ranked ninth among RBs in PPR points as Vegas' lead back over the final four weeks of last season.
Other options: Brian Robinson, Zack Moss, Courtland Sutton, Jakobi Meyers, Dallas Goedert
Round 10
Top target: Jonathon Brooks
Brooks is our top-rated rookie in the 2024 RB class. He's recovering from a November ACL tear but is expected to be ready for the start of the season.
The talented 6'0, 216-pounder has three-down potential and is a high-upside shot at this point of your draft.
Next best: Curtis Samuel
Samuel inked a three-year, $24 million deal in free agency with Buffalo, where he'll reunite with OC Joe Brady. Brady was Panthers OC in 2020 when Samuel turned in a career-best WR23 PPR finish in 2020.
He's locked in as the starting slot receiver for a high-scoring Bills offense.
Other options: Trevor Lawrence, Chuba Hubbard, Gabriel Davis, Jerry Jeudy, Dallas Goedert
Round 11
Top target: Jayden Daniels
With a lethal combination of deep passing and rushing, Daniels will have top-five fantasy upside as soon as he hits the field.
And as a likely top-three pick in the draft, he has a good shot to start Week 1.
Washington would be an excellent landing spot.
Next best: Gabriel Davis
Davis will never be a well-rounded, consistently productive WR.
But that doesn't mean he can't help your fantasy team. Even in what felt like a disappointing 2023 season, he scored as a top-14 WR in PPR points in five different weeks.
The Jaguars gave him a three-year, $39 million deal in free agency, essentially guaranteeing Davis a big role this season.
Other options: Chuba Hubbard, Zach Charbonnet, Jerry Jeudy
Round 12
Top target: Dontayvion Wicks
Wicks beat both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs in targets per route and yards per route as a rookie last year.
He has a chance in 2024 to win a top-three WR job on an ascending Packers offense.
Next best: Pat Freiermuth
Freiermuth disappointed last year, but this offseason has been good to him.
The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson.
Other options: Aaron Rodgers, Jaylen Wright, Jahan Dotson, Brandin Cooks, Joshua Palmer
Round 13
Top target: Kendre Miller
Injuries marred Miller's rookie season. He dealt with knee, hamstring, and ankle injuries, missing nine regular-season games.
But he was an exciting prospect heading into the league last offseason, running for 1,399 yards and 17 TDs on 6.2 yards per carry as a junior in 2022.
And he flashed in last year's finale with 73 yards and a score on 13 carries (6.0 YPC)
Miller finds himself in a 2024 Saints backfield with a pair of declining veterans in Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams.
The youngster could capture a big role and is a top value pick near the end of fantasy drafts.
Kendre Miller headlines our list of 2024 Sleepers
Next best: Zay Jones
Jones averaged 7.4 targets on an 18.5% share in eight healthy games last year. That’s a full-season pace of 126 targets that would have landed Jones 21st among WRs.
That followed an 82-823-5 line and WR26 PPR finish in 2022.
Jacksonville swapped out Calvin Ridley for Gabriel Davis in free agency, which is a net gain for Jones' target potential this year.
Other options: Deshaun Watson, MarShawn Lloyd, Darnell Mooney, Michael Mayer
Rounds 14, 15 & 16
Top targets: High-upside bench stash, K & DST
Pinpoint a player with upside in Round 14. Your Draft War Room will flip to Upside Mode in the second half of your draft and highlight players with lofty ceilings.
Use your final two picks on a K and DST. Aim for a K on a high-scoring offense and a DST with sack and takeaway upside.
We’ll have more advice on K and DST targets after the NFL schedule is released.
Fantasy Draft Guide for Pick 10, 11, or 12
Rounds 1 & 2
Top targets: Kyren Williams & Garrett Wilson
It might feel a bit unnerving to spend a first- or second-round pick on a guy who was a waiver-wire darling just a year ago. But Williams was excellent last season, ranking top 10 among 49 qualifying RBs in yards after contact per attempt, rush yards over expected per attempt, and PFF rushing grade. Just as importantly, Williams’ volume was excellent. Only Christian McCaffrey averaged more expected PPR points per game.
Williams could lose 10-15% of his workload from last year and still pay off this price tag. The Rams made no RB additions in free agency. We'll see what the draft brings.
Wilson has topped 80 catches and 1,000 receiving yards in two straight seasons to open his NFL career, despite crappy QB play. A healthy Aaron Rodgers could mean a breakout into elite fantasy status in 2024.
Next best: Jonathan Taylor & A.J. Brown
It’s ideal to leave these first two rounds with one RB and one WR. So if you miss on one or both of Williams and Wilson, target these guys.
Despite ankle and thumb injuries, Taylor finished 11th among RBs in PPR points per game last year. He’s still in his prime at 25 and will remain a huge part of an ascending Colts offense.
Brown has posted back-to-back PPR WR7 finishes with the Eagles. Philadelphia should play faster and run more plays in 2024 under new OC Kellen Moore
Other options: Saquon Barkley
Rounds 3 & 4
Top targets: Travis Etienne & Cooper Kupp
Etienne ranked third at his position in PPR points last year. He tallied the fourth-most carries and seventh-most targets among RBs. The 25-year-old former first-round pick is a safe bet for another hefty workload in 2024.
Puka Nacua might be the Rams' new No. 1 WR. But the gap between he and Kupp likely isn't as big as current ADP suggests.
In 11 healthy regular-season games together, Nacua out-targeted Kupp just 95 to 94.
Kupp's 14.6 PPR points per game in those outings ranked 20th among WRs.
KUPP VS. NACUA IN 11 HEALTHY GAMES TOGETHER
Kupp
94 targets
58 catches
726 yards
5 TDs
Nacua
95 targets
57 catches
874 yards
3 TDs
Next best: Travis Kelce & Jalen Hurts
This is a good spot to consider an elite TE or QB.
Kelce’s 14.8 PPR points per game last year were his fewest since 2016 but still led all TEs. The 34-year-old’s best days are behind him. But he’s still a good bet to provide a significant weekly and season-long advantage at his position. In fact, Kelce sits atop our 2024 TE rankings – and is coming two or three rounds cheaper than last year.
Hurts has finished QB3 and QB2 in fantasy points the past two years. He’s an especially attractive pick here if you nabbed WR A.J. Brown with one of your first two selections.
Other options: Isiah Pacheco, Mark Andrews
Rounds 5 & 6
Top targets: Joe Mixon & Christian Kirk
The Texans traded for Mixon before he could hit the open market -- and then signed him to a three-year, $27 million extension. That all points to Mixon operating as the clear lead back for a Texans offense that could explode in QB C.J. Stroud's second season.
Kirk finished 12th among WRs in his 2022 Jaguars debut and was sitting 24th through 11 healthy games last year. He's back in the same offense with the same QB this season. And Jacksonville's swap of Gabriel Davis for Calvin Ridley gives Kirk more target upside.
Next best: DeAndre Hopkins & Joe Burrow
The Titans paid up for WR Calvin Ridley in free agency -- but Hopkins easily beat Ridley in key metrics last year like yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. We're betting on Hopkins leading the team in targets this season. And there will be more targets to go around with the arrival of pass-leaning HC Brian Callahan.
Burrow looks like one of the best QB values in early fantasy drafts. He and his WRs dealt with injuries throughout last season. But he’s an easy rebound candidate with better health after finishing QB7 and QB4 the previous two years.
Other options: Alvin Kamara, Ken Walker, Terry McLaurin, Diontae Johnson, Chris Godwin
Rounds 7 & 8
Top targets: James Conner and D'Andre Swift
This is a nice spot for RB value.
Conner remained excellent in his age-28 season last year, setting career highs and ranking top 5 among 49 qualifying RBs in:
- Yards per carry
- Rush yards over expected per attempt
- Yards after contact per attempt
- PFF rushing grade
Conner finished 13th at his position in PPR points per game and should again be Arizona's clear lead back in 2024.
Swift got a hefty three-year, $24 million deal from the Bears in free agency that makes him a strong bet for clear lead duties. The offense could take a big leap forward this season with Swift, WR Keenan Allen and (likely) QB Caleb Williams joining WR D.J. Moore and TE Cole Kmet.
Next best: Christian Watson & Jake Ferguson
Watson again struggled with injuries last year. But he also remained a valuable spike-week player, with WR8 and WR12 PPR finishes among his eight healthy outings. He's multiple rounds cheaper this year than last.
Ferguson finished TE9 in PPR points last year, despite underachieving in the TD department. He’ll remain a big part of Dallas’ passing game in 2024 and is a nice value here if you're still looking for your starting TE.
Other options: Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton
Rounds 9 & 10
Top targets: Tyler Lockett & Brian Robinson
Lockett is being undervalued by fantasy drafters. Again. He finished with his fewest PPR points since 2017 last year but still ranked 34th among WRs. He’s currently outside the top 50 WRs in ADP.
RB Austin Ekeler figures to handle most passing-down snaps for Washington this season. But you were never drafting Robinson for his pass-catching production. He should remain Washington's lead ball-carrier this season after averaging 4.1 yards per carry and ranking 21st among 49 qualifying RBs in Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt last year. (Ekeler ranked 36th.)
Next best: Curtis Samuel & Dallas Goedert
Samuel inked a three-year, $24 million deal in free agency with Buffalo, where he'll reunite with OC Joe Brady. Brady was Panthers OC in 2020 when Samuel turned in a career-best WR23 PPR finish in 2020. He's locked in as the starting slot receiver for a high-scoring Bills offense.
Goedert is coming off a down 2023 but still finished as a top-12 PPR TE for the fourth straight season. He's a relatively safe bet at this cost and still has the upside to score as a top-six fantasy TE as a big part of a high-scoring Eagles offense.
Other options: Trevor Lawrence, Zack Moss, Jonathon Brooks, Gabriel Davis, Jerry Jeudy
Rounds 11 & 12
Top targets: Jayden Daniels & Gabriel Davis
With a lethal combination of deep passing and rushing, Daniels will have top-five fantasy upside as soon as he hits the field. And as a likely top-three pick in the draft, he has a good shot to start Week 1. Washington would be an excellent landing spot.
Jayden Daniels' 397-point ceiling projection ranks eighth highest among QBs
Davis will never be a well-rounded, consistently productive WR. But that doesn't mean he can't help your fantasy team. Even in what felt like a disappointing 2023 season, he scored as a top-14 WR in PPR points in five different weeks. The Jaguars gave him a three-year, $39 million deal in free agency, essentially guaranteeing Davis a big role this season.
Next best: Dontayvion Wicks & Pat Freiermuth
Wicks quietly beat both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs in targets per route and yards per route last year. He has a chance in 2024 to win a top-3 WR job on an ascending Packers offense.
Freiermuth disappointed last year, but this offseason has been good to him. The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson.
Other options: Chuba Hubbard, Zach Charbonnet, Jerry Jeudy, Jahan Dotson, Brandin Cooks
Rounds 13 & 14
Top targets: Kendre Miller & Zay Jones
Injuries marred Miller's rookie season. But he was an exciting prospect heading into the league last offseason and flashed in Week 18. Miller finds himself in a 2024 Saints backfield with a pair of declining veterans in Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams.
Jones averaged 7.4 targets on an 18.5% share in eight healthy games last year. That’s a full-season pace of 126 targets that would have landed Jones 21st among WRs. That followed an 82-823-5 line and WR26 PPR finish in 2022. Jacksonville swapped out Calvin Ridley for Gabriel Davis in free agency, which is a net gain for Jones' target potential this year.
Next best: MarShawn Lloyd & Darnell Mooney
Lloyd is an exciting rookie RB. He ripped off 7.1 yards per carry at USC last year and then clocked a 4.46-second 40 time at 220 pounds at the Combine. He should be a Day 2 pick and could claim a significant role in his NFL backfield this season.
Mooney struggled in bad Bears passing games the past two years. But he drew 98 targets as a rookie and then topped 1,000 yards in his second NFL season. Moving to Atlanta with OC Zac Robinson and QB Kirk Cousins gives Mooney a shot for a rebound season in 2024.
Other options: Deshaun Watson, Antonio Gibson, Wan'Dale Robinson, Demario Douglas, Michael Mayer
Rounds 15 & 16
Top targets: K & DST
Use your final two picks on a K and DST. Aim for a K on a high-scoring offense and a DST with sack and takeaway upside.
We’ll have more advice on K and DST targets after the NFL schedule is released.
The Ultimate Fantasy Football Draft Guide: A Customized, Dynamic Cheat Sheet
Having round-by-round strategy heading into your draft is important.
But fantasy football drafts are unpredictable. You need to be nimble. You need to adjust on the fly to capture the most value.
You need a customized, dynamic cheat sheet.
The Draft War Room takes our award-winning player projections and applies them to your league’s exact rules to give you a precise set of rankings.
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Frequently Asked Questions About Draft Strategy
Who is the number one fantasy pick in 2024?
The number one fantasy pick in 2024 will almost certainly be RB Christian McCaffery in most leagues. But some managers might be tempted to pick WR CeeDee Lamb, WR Tyreek Hill, or even RB Breece Hall.
What position should I draft first in PPR league?
The position you should draft first in a PPR league is either a WR or a pass-catching RB like Christian McCaffery or Breece Hall.
What is the best position order to draft in fantasy football?
The best position order to draft in fantasy football has traditionally been first. But some scientific data suggests that a later position like 6 or 7 can actually be optimal.
How many WR and RB should I draft?
How many WRs and RBs you should draft is typically 5, 6 or 7 in traditional formats with a 20-round draft. Of course, that can change depending on your scoring rules and starting lineup requirements.
What round should I draft a QB?
You should generally draft a QB in the middle rounds – unless you’re in a Superflex league. You can always find value in mid-round QBs like Jordan Love or Kyler Murray.
When should I draft a kicker or defense in fantasy?
You should commonly draft a kicker or defense in the very late rounds in fantasy. Sometimes it might even be a good idea to pick up kickers and defenses on the waiver wire and stream them.
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