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A.J. Brown - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsA.J. Brown's Basic Stats

A.J. Brown
ADP: 1.10
Bye: 5
Experience: 5
Age: 26.9
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 226
40 Time: 4.49
Speed Score: 109.70

SPARQx (Rank): 119.50 (89%)
Burst Score (Rank): 122.10 (54%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.25 (51%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.08 (65%)

A.J. Brown's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.7 82.3 0.51 11.2
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.4 85.1 0.6 12.4

A.J. Brown's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#8 Wide Receiver

254.9 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
1.10 85.5 1234.5 7.65 3 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsA.J. Brown's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Brown ranks third in receiving yards over the past two seasons. At 27, he remains a dynamic fantasy asset with week-winning ability.

While he’ll learn a new offense under OC Kellen Moore, Brown’s volume should ultimately remain north of 130. That type of volume supplies a clear-cut WR1 outlook.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Brown appeared in all 17 games for the second straight season.
    • He went down in Week 18 with a knee injury that cost him the Wild Card round.
  • Overall, the former Titan posted career highs in targets (158) and catches (106).
    • He finished fifth among WRs in yards (1,456) but was just OK as a TD scorer (7).
  • Jalen Hurts’ rushing prowess played a role in the TD output.
    • Twenty-two pass catchers saw more red zone targets than Brown.
    • The Eagles ranked last in pass rate inside the 10 and inside the 20.
    • However, Brown ranked 10th in red zone target share; 4th in goal-to-go target share.
  • All told, Brown finished as a fantasy WR1 in eight weeks.
    • He finished outside the top-36 WRs only three times (removing Week 18).
  • Brown's underlying profile showed no cause for concern.
    • His catch rate, contested catch rate, targets per route run, and yards per route run all fell in line with career averages.
    • Only one WR beat Brown’s 31.1% target share (Davante Adams).

What to Expect in 2024

  • The Eagles return QB Jalen Hurts, WR2 DeVonta Smith, and TE Dallas Goedert.
  • Hurts’ passing performance dipped last year, but we’re optimistic he can rebound with better health. (He played a chunk of the year with a knee issue.)
  • OC Brian Johnson was replaced by Kellen Moore, who called plays for the Chargers in 2023.
    • He’s expected to bring more formation diversity and pre-snap motion to a team that rarely used it in ‘23.
    • Here’s a comment from Smith at OTAs: “I would say it just gives you more space at times…When you’re getting bunches and things like that, guys don’t press as much. And it kind of confuses the defense, so it gives you more space and opportunity to do things.”
    • The 2023 Chargers ranked 8th in neutral pass rate. Philly sat 26th.
    • The Chargers ranked 6th in first-down pass rate, while the Eagles slotted 13th.
  • The Eagles enter the summer with an uninspiring group of potential WR3s.
  • GM Howie Roseman invested serious money in RB Saquon Barkley. It’s a clear signal that the team will remain committed to the run.

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Johnny Wilson, WR PHI

4:36pm EDT 4/27/24

Johnny Wilson joins Eagles WR corps

The Eagles selected Florida State WR Johnny Wilson in Round 6 of the NFL Draft. Wilson started out as an Arizona State Sun Devil, recruited by current Raiders HC Antonio Pierce. But the four-star California native would require patience before making his mark. 2020 turned up a pandemic-shortened season. Then in 2021, Wilson missed seven games with a hamstring. His fortunes changed in 2022 following a move to Florida State. The 6’6, 231-pounder broke through with 43-898-5 in 13 games. That’s 20.9 yards per catch – plus an eye-popping 3.36 yards per route run. Wilson’s production predictably dipped in 2023 (41-617-2). FSU welcomed in transfer WR Keon Coleman, while Wilson missed three games with an injury. Despite the up-and-down college career, the 23-year-old has a chance to stick as an outside WR in the pros. He’s a rare athlete at his size, and he proved it at the Combine with a 9.70 Relative Athletic Score. His 84.5-inch wingspan is simply enormous. This isn’t a great spot for Wilson’s dynasty value, though. The Eagles have WR A.J. Brown signed through 2029 and WR DeVonta Smith through 2028.

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The Eagles and WR A.J. Brown agreed to a three-year extension worth $96 million, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. It makes Brown the league's highest-paid WR, taking that title from Amon-Ra St. Brown, who held the crown for one day. Brown is now under contract with Philadelphia through the 2029 campaign. WR DeVonta Smith is signed through 2028. The Brown extension solidifies his dynasty value, as well as QB Jalen Hurts'.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

The Eagles and WR DeVonta Smith agreed to a three-year $75 million contract extension with $51 million guaranteed, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Smith had two years remaining on his rookie deal but is now signed with Philadelphia through the 2028 campaign. The 2021 first-round pick has opened his NFL career with WR29, WR9, and WR16 PPR finishes. The presence of WR A.J. Brown (signed through 2026) caps Smith's upside a tad. But he's a rock-solid fantasy WR2 in the short and long term. The contract extension is also excellent news for QB Jalen Hurts' dynasty value.

View all DeVonta Smith Shark Bites »

The Eagles are set to hire Kellen Moore as their new OC, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Moore is coming off a disappointing season in Los Angeles, where his Chargers finished an underwhelming 18th in total yards and 21st in points. He had a much more productive stint in Dallas the four years prior, with three of those Cowboys teams ranking top-6 in points, including first- and fourth-place finishes in his final two seasons. Moore deployed a slightly run-leaning offense (in terms of Pass Rate Over Expected) in Dallas and went slightly pass-leaning in Los Angeles last year. But his offenses have consistently played fast. In fact, all five of them ranked top-4 in both pace and situation-neutral pace. That should mean a significant shift in Philadelphia after the Eagles finished 18th in pace and neutral pace last year. We'll see exactly how much say Moore has in the offense under HC Shane Steichen.

View all Jalen Hurts Shark Bites »

The Eagles will be ruling WR A.J. Brown (knee) out for Monday night’s game against the Buccaneers. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that Brown "wants to fully heal as much as he can and give it a go next week." Philly would obviously need to win at Tampa to make that second game happen. Brown’s absence leaves targets available for WR DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert. WR Julio Jones gains intrigue as a DFS play. QB Jalen Hurts loses upside without his top wideout (and is dealing with his own finger injury). Brown makes for a weak play across playoff fantasy contests.

Update: Brown missed practice again on Saturday and has officially been ruled out.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

A.J. Brown, WR PHI
Dynasty MVP 134.3
Position Rank #17 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
438
702
1,167
Dynasty Write-up
As a first-year Eagle in 2022, Brown shoved aside injury concerns to set a career-high in catches and yards. Year two in Philly gave way to career-highs in targets (158) and catches (106), despite a late-season dip. While Brown suffered a Week 18 knee injury, he wound up appearing in all 17 games for the second straight season. He's under contract through the 2029 season.
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