Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft | 1-QB
WARNING: This is NOT the same dynasty rookie mock draft you read before.
Plenty has changed in the wake of the NFL Draft.
Some guys went a lot later than we anticipated. Some got picked earlier. And some even combined good draft capital with bad landing spots.
How should you react in your dynasty rookie drafts? That's what we're here to sort out.
Tip: Check out the full dynasty rankings to see where all these rookies landed.
Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft – Round 1
1.01 – Alex Korff: Bijan Robinson, Falcons (RB)
Bijan Robinson is an elite prospect in every sense of the word (9.36 model score).
He does everything we want a RB to do on the field. And with a top-8 NFL selection, the Atlanta Falcons agreed.
He lands in an offense that loves to run the ball. Bijan is instantly a top 15 asset in dynasty leagues and the no-brainer 1.01 in 1-QB rookie drafts.
Get the full breakdown of Bijan Robinson’s dynasty value.
1.02 – Kevin English: Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions (RB)
Playing alongside Jared Goff, D’Andre Swift averaged 5.5 targets per game over the past two seasons. Call it an attainable range for Gibbs right away.
The ‘Bama standout combines elite short-area burst with eye-opening long speed. Across three college seasons, he tallied a massive 104-1,217-8 receiving line.
Learn more about the long-term outlook for Jahmyr Gibbs.
1.03 – Matt Schauf: Quentin Johnston, Chargers (WR)
Johnston was my WR1 heading into the draft because of the size-speed-production combo.
I believe he sports the highest ceiling in a weird -- mostly tiny -- WR class. Landing with Justin Herbert certainly didn't knock him down my board at all.
Keenan Allen is 31 and nearing the end of his contract (and maybe career). Mike Williams has never proved to be the target-hogging type (47th among WRs in target share last season). Both have dealt with injuries in recent years.
There will be room for Johnston to carve out an early role, with plenty of growth potential.
Read about the upside – and risk – that make up Quentin Johnston dynasty value.
1.04 – Matt: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks (WR)
The landing spot stinks for 2023 -- bad enough that I think it's OK if you prefer Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison here.
But Tyler Lockett will be 31 when this season starts and carries cap hits of nearly $24 million each of the following two years.
JSN could be Seattle's WR2 as soon as 2024. More importantly, it's generally better to bet on talent in rookie drafts over fretting the landing spot.
Can landing spot really tamp down all that Jaxon Smith-Njigba dynasty fantasy football value?
1.05 – Jared Smola: Jordan Addison, Vikings (WR)
Addison doesn't have alpha-dog upside joining a Vikings WR corps led by Justin Jefferson.
But the rookie should quickly ascend to the No. 2 spot on the depth chart for a Minnesota squad that quietly ranked third in pass attempts last season.
Addison has short- and long-term WR2 potential for dynasty teams.
Get Jared’s full thoughts on Jordan Addison’s dynasty value.
1.06 – C.H. Herms: Devon Achane, Dolphins (RB)
Achane landed in the perfect spot.
I outlined in his prospect profile that he's an excellent runner on the perimeter with dangerous acceleration.
The outside zone scheme that HC Mike McDaniel runs in Miami will accentuate Achane's strengths. And given the current depth chart, it wouldn't be a shock to see the former Texas A&M standout make an impact in Year 1.
1.07 – Luke Sawhook: Dalton Kincaid, Bills (TE)
Patrick Mahomes has Travis Kelce. Now Josh Allen has Dalton Kincaid!
Will they be as good together? Probably not. But Kincaid has the makeup to be a top 5 dynasty TE.
In the desert that is dynasty TE, Kincaid is absolutely worth a shot here.
Dalton Kincaid’s dynasty fantasy football value offers plenty to get excited about.
1.08 – Kevin: Zay Flowers, Ravens (WR)
I loved Flowers’ tape. He’s slippery before and after the catch, and he certainly checks the production box after carrying a poor Boston College offense. He exits school with career totals of 200 catches, 3,056 yards, and 29 TDs.
Baltimore looks like a fine landing spot, too. Lamar Jackson is now locked up long term. And there’s no guarantee the Ravens carry Rashod Bateman or Odell Beckham Jr. beyond 2024.
Find out more about the dynasty outlook for Zay Flowers.
1.09 – Luke: Anthony Richardson, Colts (QB)
While this is a 1-QB draft, fantasy football has been dominated by rushing QBs like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen over the past few years.
Anthony Richardson has a legit top 5 fantasy ceiling with his potential rushing output, making him 100% worth this pick.
Check out our full breakdown of Anthony Richardson’s dynasty value.
1.10 – Kevin: Rashee Rice, Chiefs (WR)
I’m trying hard to trade out of this spot (or the 1.11). Neither Rice (nor Mingo) has the profile of a typical Round 1 rookie pick.
With Rice, I’m hoping he can hone his athletic gifts alongside Patrick Mahomes. At nearly 6’1, 204 pounds, Rice excelled at the Combine with a 41-inch vertical, a 128-inch broad jump, and a 1.49-second 10-yard split.
Each mark ranked in the 86th percentile or better among Combine WRs since 1999. The Chiefs’ WR corps certainly needs someone to step up as a long-term asset.
Rice moved up our dynasty rookie rankings after landing with the Chiefs.
1.11 – Kevin: Jonathan Mingo, Panthers (WR)
Mingo landed in a fine spot for immediate value.
D.J. Chark brings durability questions following two years of ankle trouble. And it’s clear Adam Thielen — 33 in August — is past his prime.
Mingo lacks a desirable production profile coming out of Ole Miss. But I’ll take a shot on his impressive athleticism. At nearly 6’2, 220 pounds, he posted freakish testing numbers at the NFL Combine.
Jared was smitten by Jonathan Mingo when he watched the tape for this profile.
1.12 – Matt: Tyjae Spears, Titans (RB)
Yep, I've heard about the knee. You know who else has? The Titans. And they took him in Round 3, as the fifth RB off the board.
That means they're either less worried about the knee than all the Twitter docs are. Or that they're so excited about his next four years that they want that time and will put off worrying about the future.
Either way, I'm taking a shot on an exciting RB who will at least hit 2023 as the handcuff to Derrick Henry.
Knee revelations aside, dig into Tyjae Spears’ dynasty outlook here.
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Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft – Round 2
2.01 – Jared: Kendre Miller, Saints (RB)
Miller flew under the radar during the pre-draft process because of the knee injury that prevented him from working out. But it probably shouldn't have come as a big surprise that he was the fourth RB off the board.
Miller averaged a huge 6.7 yards per carry across three college seasons and is coming off a 1,399-yard, 17-TD junior campaign.
He has lead-back size at 5'11, 215 pounds. And he's not even 21 yet.
Miller joins a Saints backfield led by a couple of guys that are past their peak: soon-to-be 28-year-old Alvin Kamara and already 28-year-old Jamaal Williams.
Find out why Herms isn’t totally sold on Kendre Miller’s dynasty value.
2.02 – Herms: Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks (RB)
It's less than ideal for Charbonnet to land in the Seahawks backfield.
Teammate RB Kenneth Walker III is going to be difficult for Charbonnet to overtake as the lead guy.
Perhaps we can get a Nick Chubb-Kareem Hunt situation, which would give Charbonnet some value and premium handcuff upside.
Take away Kenneth Walker, and Zach Charbonnet’s dynasty value would look much better.
2.03 – Alex: Bryce Young, Panthers (QB)
Yes, yes, I know. We are doing a 1-QB dynasty rookie mock draft, and I just drafted a quarterback. Boo, this man.
This pick has more to do with the general lack of exciting depth in the 2023 class than it does with the profile of Young.
Charbonnet is the last player in a tier that I am excited to draft. Most players in the second round of rookie drafts have significant competition or just weren’t overly exciting prospects.
Young was drafted No. 1 overall by a team that desperately needed a QB. He had the highest model score (9.53) with great film and analytic scores. I am banking on him being a solid QB for a long time.
Bryce Young drew a Russell Wilson comparison in his dynasty fantasy football value report.
2.04 – Herms: Roschon Johnson, Bears (RB)
Perhaps a bit aggressive, but I believe Johnson is going to fit well with the Bears' offense. Keeping the ball moving with RPOs and play action while protecting QB Justin Fields is vital to executing OC Luke Getsy's offense.
Johnson's strong pass protection – as I highlighted in his profile – should find him plenty of snaps early on.
Add his strong downhill running skills, and Johnson should be at least Chicago’s RB2 – maybe more.
2.05 – Jared: Marvin Mims, Broncos (WR)
Mims was Denver's first pick, coming off the board 63rd overall.
That's especially noteworthy because this was the Broncos' first draft under new HC Sean Payton, who has no allegiance to WRs Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton.
Denver has since picked up Jeudy's fifth-year option, so he’s set to hit free agency after 2024. Sutton is signed through 2025 but has been a consistent subject of trade rumors.
We'll see where the WR situation goes, but it sure seems like Payton and Co. have big plans for Mims, who enters the league with a strong college production profile and sub-4.4 speed.
2.06 – Kevin: Jalin Hyatt, Giants (WR)
You probably know about the negatives with Hyatt.
He’s slender (6’0, 176 pounds). He posted only one season of big-time production. And the Tennessee offense didn’t exactly resemble an NFL offense.
But at this point in the draft, I’m looking for rare traits — and Hyatt has ‘em. Only 21, he tested as one of the most explosive WRs at the Combine with a 4.40-second 40 time, a 40-inch vertical, and a 135-inch broad jump.
New York also supplies both immediate and long-term opportunity given the current depth chart.
Learn more about Jalin Hyatt’s dynasty fantasy football value.
2.07 – Matt: Jayden Reed, Packers (WR)
My colleagues parted like the Red Sea to make sure this union happened.
I've been here the whole time on Reed, and the Packers confirmed my feelings by taking him in Round 2.
The landing spot presents early opportunity. Reed sports inside-outside positional flexibility and a better prospect profile than 2022 fourth-rounder Romeo Doubs.
Reed claimed target share and produced as soon as he got on the field at Western Michigan and Michigan State.
Frankly, he'd sit higher in our site rankings if my buddies here would only listen to me more.
2.08 – Alex: C.J. Stroud, Texans (QB)
Yes, I took another QB in a 1-QB dynasty rookie mock draft. Fight me.
The end of the second round is getting bleak. Stroud has the upside of being a foundational QB for a dynasty team. Set-and-forget type of player.
The hit rate for this draft range's TEs, WRs, or RBs are much lower. Stroud had great college production, athleticism, size, and the draft capital (No. 2 overall) we look for in a rookie QB.
Find out what Kevin thinks C.J. Stroud could add in the pros that would help his dynasty value.
2.09 – Luke: Michael Mayer, Raiders (TE)
I 100% expected Mayer to be a first-round NFL Draft pick. Although he fell to early in the second, he landed in a great spot.
Darren Waller’s departure opens plenty of opportunity. Mayer is arguably the best all-around TE in this class. And that includes good hands.
I expect him to immediately approach TE1 territory in fantasy.
Check out our full breakdown of Michael Mayer’s dynasty fantasy football value.
2.10 – Jared: Sam LaPorta, Lions (TE)
LaPorta got strong draft capital: 34th overall pick as the second TE off the board (ahead of Mayer).
Perhaps that shouldn't have come as a surprise considering his strong production profile and 90th-percentile athleticism.
LaPorta joins an ascending Lions offense looking to replace TE T.J. Hockenson.
2.11 – Luke: Tank Dell, Texans (WR)
I'm a big fan of Dell and this landing spot.
The major knock is size, and it’s a fair concern. He sports 3rd-percentile height and 1st-percentile weight among Combine WRs.
But Dell also racked up 199 catches and 29 TDs over the past two years. And then he got solid (Round 3) draft capital as an early declare.
The Texans’ biggest import at WR was 31-year-old Robert Woods. He, Nico Collins, and John Metchie (who missed his rookie year for leukemia treatment) stand as primary role competition.
In short, there’s opportunity.
2.12 – Matt: Tank Bigsby, Jaguars (RB)
Smile if you can get Bigsby at the end of Round 2.
He averaged 6.0 yards per carry as true freshman in the SEC and then almost literally carried a deteriorating Auburn offense over his final two years.
Bigsby brings solid size for the position, a 73rd-percentile speed score, and an above-average college dominator rating (based on share of team's yards and TDs). He also racked up a 15.3% target share in his final Tigers season.
If Jacksonville likes his receiving anywhere near as much, Bigsby could immediately claim receiving work -- a disappointing area for Travis Etienne in 2022.
At worst, HC Doug Pederson has already said he plans to use multiple RBs. So we at least get a committee back with handcuff upside in an ascending offense and Etienne heading into Year 3 of his four-year rookie deal.
Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft – Round 3
3.01 – Luke: Zach Evans, Rams (RB)
Some might say this is a reach, but I say I have a dream!
Evans is a talented back who I think has a legit chance to compete with Cam Akers in his rookie season. Although the draft capital isn't great, the talent and opportunity are there.
Herms had a lot more to say about Zach Evans in this profile.
Herms & Matt talk Zach Evans
3.02 – Alex: Cedric Tillman, Browns (WR)
Tillman had one of the highest agreement factors (4.8/5.0) in the rookie prospect model. His film, athleticism, and production all basically agreed that he would be a solid – not great – prospect.
He got slightly lower draft capital than we wanted (74th overall), but fell into a WR corps which is interesting with not much behind an aging Amari Cooper.
Tillman is a relatively safe player to grab here at the start of the third round.
Are we underrating Cedric Tillman’s long-term value by letting him stick around this long?
3.03 – Matt: Josh Downs, Colts (WR)
Downs isn't exciting. At 5'9, 174 pounds, he's not likely to command big target shares in the NFL. And he'll need target volume to pay off.
The slot man averaged a just-OK 12.3 yards per catch for his college career. But he did claim a 39% target share in just his second season at UNC. Downs also racked up 195 catches and 19 TDs over the past two years. He's worth a Round 3 shot.
Jared profiles a small WR with big production to determine the potential dynasty value.
3.04 – Luke: Will Levis, Titans (QB)
Alright I'll bite. Levis had a first-round grade in my prospect evaluations, and I believe he'll get his chance to start in Tennessee sooner rather than later behind Ryan Tannehill.
Levis has a phenomenal arm and can run (72nd-percentile 40 time among QBs). That’s enough to present fantasy upside if/when he gets on the field.
What did Kevin find when he put in the research for the Will Levis dynasty fantasy football value report?
3.05 – Herms: Luke Musgrave, Packers (TE)
I don't love the fact that the Packers also drafted South Dakota State TE Tucker Kraft, but Musgrave is still a player I'm willing to bet on.
There's limited evidence of college production in his profile. But with Musgrave's 6'6, 253-pound frame and ability to leverage his body against defenders, I can see QB Jordan Love leaning on him in tough short-yardage situations.
Betting on plus athletes in the third is what it's all about.
3.06 – Jared: Michael Wilson, Cardinals (WR)
Let's follow the draft capital here.
The Cardinals made Wilson a third-round pick as the 13th WR off the board. His college career was marred by injuries, but Wilson draws high marks for his route-running ability and ball skills.
And he blew up the Combine with a 37.5-inch vertical and elite 3-cone time at 213 pounds.
Wilson has a chance to develop into a starter for the rebuilding Cardinals.
3.07 – Herms: Israel Abanikanda, Jets (RB)
It's disappointing to see Abanikanda land in a situation without a clear path to being the backfield leader. RB Breece Hall isn't going away anytime soon.
But fortunately the Pitt product finds himself in an ideal scheme fit. The Jets are fairly heavy on outside zone running, which should fit the rookie’s running style nicely.
If Hall’s ACL recovery spills into the season, or even merely lightens his early workload, then Abanikanda could get a shot at immediate touches.
3.08 – Alex: Chase Brown, Bengals (RB)
We’ve all heard “location, location, location” about buying a home or property. Well, it also applies when looking at late-round RB fliers.
Brown happens to be in a great location. The Bengals lost Samaje Perine to free agency and only have two unproven backs (Chris Evans and Trayveon Williams) behind Joe Mixon.
And wait, there's more!
According to Spotrac, Mixon will cost the Bengals more than $10 million this year with a $5.5 million dead cap hit. If Mixon doesn’t take a pay cut, he could be gone this year. If not in 2023, almost certainly in 2024.
Brown is an athletic prospect with solid film scores and below-average college production metrics. It is a dart throw that could pay off big with minimal opportunity cost.
You could do worse.
3.09 – Kevin: Luke Schoonmaker, Cowboys (TE)
Let’s pretend I’m a TE-needy squad. Schoonmaker offers the chance to contribute in Year 1, as only Jake Ferguson (2022 fourth-round pick) and Peyton Hendershot (2022 UDFA) stand in the way of starting snaps.
Sure, Schoonmaker wasn’t productive at Michigan. But there’s reason to believe he can develop into a spot-start TE1 long-term. He was a RAS darling (9.75 out of 10) at 6’5, 251 pounds.
3.10 – Jared: Tyler Scott, Bears (WR)
Scott was a draft loser, slipping to the end of Round 4 to the run-heavy Bears. I'll take a shot on his skill set at this point of a rookie draft, though.
Scott is a former RB and plays like it, with 4.4 speed and plenty of make-you-miss ability.
Still only 21 years old, he's an intriguing developmental project.
Jared found a player with seemingly unfulfilled potential as the Tyler Scott comp.
3.11 – Alex: Charlie Jones, Bengals (WR)
Ah, Charlie Jones. Or Chuck, as his friends call him.
(I assume. I actually never tried to verify this now fact.)
When I started the scouting process for the 2023 rookie class, I had never heard of our good friend Chuck. I literally never heard the name before. Or I blocked it out. Anything is possible.
A Developing Nerd Crush
Chuck kept popping up weirdly high as I started to populate the fields in the rookie model. He had great production (WR7), above-average athleticism, and his film scores were high (WR11).
Finally, NFL draft night arrives, and with the 29th pick of the 4th round, the Bengals drafted my dude Chuck.
Chuck started playing at Buffalo in 2018. He is old for a rookie wide receiver. He is solid on punt-return duty (PFF grades in the 73-79 range) and has a path for upside in 2024. That’s when Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins are set to hit free agency.
It's the 3rd round of a 1-QB rookie mock draft. Why the hell not grab Chuck?
3.12 – Herms: Sean Tucker, Buccaneers (RB)
Concerns over a potential heart issue ultimately led to the former Syracuse back going undrafted.
Even so, he was scooped quickly by a Buccaneers team devoid of RB depth behind 2022 rookie Rachaad White.
It's worth taking a flier on Tucker at 3.12, assuming he can overtake the likes of Chase Edmonds and Ke’Shawn Vaughn to become the RB2.
What’s the dynasty outlook for Sean Tucker if his heart proves fine? Herms digs in.
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