Fantasy Football Breakouts 2024

  

These 7 Guys Carry Season-Changing Potential

Drafting Rachaad White worked out pretty well last year … right?

You were able to grab our favorite 2023 breakout candidate in Round 6 – maybe even later. And if you did, you landed a guy who finished eighth among non-PPR RBs; fourth in PPR.

That’s the kind of pick that wins fantasy championships.

Ready to get a jump on the fantasy football breakouts for 2024?

 

Breakout QB: Jayden Daniels

Daniels has yet to play an NFL snap. So how can we already feel confident in tabbing him a fantasy football breakout?

Because Daniels’ college profile suggests he’ll be excellent in two areas that are key for QB fantasy production: Deep passing and running.

Deep-Ball Prowess Adds Upside

Daniels led all 125 qualifying FBS QBs with a huge 11.5 yards per pass attempt last year.

He was deadly throwing deep, completing 35 of 55 passes 20+ yards downfield for 1,347 yards, 22 TDs, and 0 INTs.

Daniels led the FBS in throws 20+ yards downfield in all of these categories:

An Elite Runner

Daniels also racked up 1,134 rushing yards with 10 TDs in his Heisman-winning 2023 campaign.

And if we remove the negative yardage from sacks taken, Daniels climbs to 1,250 rushing yards on 10.4 yards per carry. 

Explosive as any QB we’ve seen since at least Lamar Jackson, Daniels had eight runs of 15+ yards last year, including this 85-yard TD vs. Florida.

Washington a Nice Landing Spot

Daniels was the No. 2 overall pick of this year's draft and landed in a solid situation for immediate production.

The Commanders return WRs Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson; they added free-agent Austin Ekeler, who's still a capable pass-catching back; and they spent Day 2 picks on TE Ben Sinnott and WR Luke McCaffrey.

Daniels will also be working with a play-caller who has experience with young, mobile QBs. Kliff Kingsbury was Cardinals OC for QB Kyler Murray's rookie season, when he ranked 12th among QBs in fantasy points per game.

How High is the Fantasy Ceiling?

Daniels' rushing ability alone makes him a good bet for top-10 fantasy production, with upside well beyond that.

Of 31 QBs with 500+ rushing yards in a season over the last 10 years:

 

Breakout RB: Jonathon Brooks

Brooks headed toward the draft as the favorite to lead RBs off the board. He achieved that by a healthy margin.

The Panthers traded two fifth-round picks to the Colts just to move up six spots in Round 2 and secure Brooks -- 20 spots ahead of RB2 Trey Benson.

Good Situation for Opportunity

"He's got it all," new Panthers HC Dave Canales said after drafting Brooks. "He's a bigger back. He's got range. There's so much that he brings from a versatility standpoint."

Canales comes to Carolina after running the Tampa Bay offense that allowed Rachaad White to finish RB4 in PPR points -- even while ranking among the league's least-efficient runners (sixth-worst in rush yards over expected per attempt).

White benefited most from the Bucs lacking other options. Carolina's backfield isn't as bad as that team's. But Brooks' competition isn't scary:

• Chuba Hubbard
• Miles Sanders
• Raheem Blackshear
• Rashaad Penny

Plenty of Talent; One Big Question

Of course, this is about more than just a dearth of other options. Brooks averaged 6.2 yards per carry and 12.0 per catch for his college career.

After Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson left in 2023, Brooks emerged ahead of fellow backfield talent C.J. Baxter to lead the group in carries, catches, scoring, and yardage efficiency.

Brooks' season ended with an early November ACL tear, though. He'll need to prove he's all the way back from that. But the Panthers expect him to be ready for training camp.

  

Breakout RB: Jaylen Warren

Your first question here might be: Didn’t Warren already break out? Well, that depends …

He did finish 21st among RBs in total PPR points last year … but just 29th in points per game.

If you believe that’s close to his ceiling, then yes. He already broke out. I’ll bet the ceiling reaches higher …

Warren Looks Like Best Steelers RB

Warren edged Najee Harris in PPR points last year, while trailing him by 0.8 points per game in half-PPR and 1.7 per game in non-PPR.

He remained behind Harris in carries and scored half as many TDs but vaulted past his teammate in receiving:

• 74 targets to 38
• 61 receptions to 29
• 370 yards to 170

Warren ranked sixth among all RBs in targets and fifth in receptions.

Warren also outperformed Harris across rushing-efficiency metrics last season. That included leads in:

• Yards per carry: 5.3 to 4.1
• Rush yards over expected per carry: 1.11 to 0.31 (per NFL Next Gen Stats)
• Yards after contact per carry: 3.68 to 3.03 (per PFF)
• Missed tackles forced: 56 to 53 (PFF)

He also saw his workload increase dramatically over 2022, with his efficiency improving as well.

Pittsburgh Offense Should Be Good for RBs

No one’s thrilled about the Steelers’ offense for 2024, but it should be more productive than last year.

Russell Wilson’s an unequivocal improvement over Kenny Pickett.

New OC Arthur Smith should be better than Matt Canada. Pittsburgh’s offense went from 12th in scoring the year before Canada took over to 21st, 26th, and 28th with him at the helm.

And Smith has favored the run game across two NFL stops.

His Atlanta offenses ranked 30th in neutral-situation pass rate over the past three years. His two years as Titans OC found that offense ranking 31st.

Breakout WR: Drake London

London tried to break out as a rookie in 2022. The guy ranked sixth among all wideouts in target share.

But playing for the run-heavy Falcons with limited QB Marcus Mariota capped his production. London …

• Tied for just 22nd among WRs in targets
• Tied for 26th in receptions
• Ranked 28th in yards
• And checked in 47th in PPR points per game.

Then it got even worse in 2023.

London Will Benefit from Arthur Smith’s Departure

Mariota wasn’t great, but London actually saw his rate of “catchable” targets fall in Year 2, from 70.9% to 66.4%. That change doesn’t equate to a lot of passes, but it’s a well-below-average rate and signals the poor quality of quarterbacking.

London also dipped to 28th among WRs in target share and finished outside the top 40 in fantasy scoring for the second straight year.

Fortunately, Atlanta dumped HC Arthur Smith and imported coaches from Sean McVay's Rams staff. That includes new OC Zac Robinson.

WRs coach Ike Hilliard didn't come from L.A. but did work under McVay in Washington (among other stops). In Atlanta, Hilliard quickly identified London as a player he's excited to work with.

Hilliard said he wants London to “dictate the coverage, make it easier for the quarterback to see what’s going on, command the ball when you get 1-on-1 attention, make plays, and be a legitimate factor on a week-to-week basis.”

Big-Time QB Upgrade

New QB Kirk Cousins led the league in adjusted completion rate for 2023, according to Pro Football Focus. His previous five Vikings seasons found Cousins ranking:

• 12th
• sixth
• seventh (tied)
• fourth
• second

Cousins' 2023 ended prematurely with an Achilles' tendon tear. But the $100 million Atlanta guaranteed him on a multi-year deal says they expect the vet to be ready.

And eighth-overall pick Michael Penix Jr. should immediately be better than Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke if he's forced into action.

 

   

Breakout WR: Jayden Reed

Didn’t Reed already break out? … you might be thinking.

And sure, he ranked top-25 among WRs across fantasy formats as a second-round rookie. But that’s exactly what makes him a breakout candidate still in Year 2.

Packers held Jayden Reed Back in 2023

Reed played a significant role right away, but he also remained limited.

He ranked just third among Packers WRs in snap share across games played. Reed’s 56.1% trailed pretty significantly behind Romeo Doubs (77.1%) and Christian Watson (77%).

Reed’s 424 total routes ranked just 61st among all WRs, behind players such as Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp (in five fewer games), and Robert Woods.

But Reed Won with Efficiency

The rookie led the team, however, in yards per route run and targets per route. Among 84 WRs who drew 50+ targets, he ranked a well-above-average 25th in YPRR. 

And among 105 WRs with 250+ routes, Reed’s 22.9% rate of targets per route checked in 23rd. The next Packers wideout was Dontayvion Wicks at No. 43, and he played even less than Reed.

Green Bay also handed Reed the ball 11 times, the first time a Packers WR has reached double-digit carries since HC Matt LaFleur arrived in 2019.

Expect Reed to Get More Time

Will Reed’s role grow in 2024? We can’t know that yet. Perhaps Green Bay keeps Doubs ahead of Reed in playing time. And perhaps a healthier Watson stays ahead as well.

But Reed arrived as an impressive prospect who delivered quickly at each of his college stops and then delivered quickly in the NFL.

He certainly profiles as a guy who should command more playing time in his second season.

       

Breakout WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Even if you don’t believe in the ultimate breakout case for this second-year Seahawk, you can still treat him as a mid-round WR sleeper.

The Cliffs Notes version of his upside case goes like this:

• First-round talent
• Coaching changes should mean more WR-friendly scheme
• Role likely to improve vs. disappointing rookie year

JSN will probably need help beyond that to become a “breakout WR,” so let’s dig further into potential.

What if Lockett Tumbles?

We love Tyler Lockett, and he’s in the midst of a terrific career. But he’ll also turn 32 before the end of September.

Our historical aging data includes six different buckets of WRs, and none averages more than 86% of peak production in that age-32 season. Several dip below 80%.

Lockett delivered his fewest yards per route last year (1.61) since 2017, ranking just 46th among 96 WRs with 40+ targets, according to PFF.

There’s potential for the new coaching staff to shift targets away from the aging wideout – or for Lockett to simply reach the cliff.

What if Metcalf’s Not a True No. 1?

DK Metcalf has been very good in the NFL and productive in fantasy. He has finished four straight seasons among the top 21 PPR scorers at WR, with a peak of WR6 in 2020.

But Metcalf’s annual target-share rankings reveal a player who probably doesn’t reach “true” No. 1 status:

• 2023: 29th
• 2022: 20th
• 2021: eighth
• 2020: 19th
• 2019: 26th

Leave Room for the Unknown

Smith-Njigba sits tied with Lockett in our PPR points per game rankings and third among Seattle wideouts in our target projections.

But he’s close to Lockett there and passes him in our 3D Value rankings, which add upside to the equation.

We’re not betting that JSN beats Metcalf in targets. But that wouldn’t be a shocking outcome. He already led a 2021 Ohio State receiving corps that included Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave.

It would be far less shocking than 2023 Puka Nacua; more in line with Davante Adams’ 2016 breakthrough.

That’s when Adams – then 24 – racked up a 75-997-12 stat line despite while trailing Jordy Nelson in targets but jumping ahead of a 26-year-old Randall Cobb (after two strong strong Cobb seasons).

Breakout TE: Dalton Kincaid

The Bills let Gabe Davis walk in free agency. Then they sent Stefon Diggs to Houston. That removed Nos. 1 and 3 from their 2023 target rankings, accounting for 41.6% of QB Josh Allen's total attempts.

No. 2 on that list was Kincaid, who logged the fourth-most receptions ever for a rookie TE (73).

He did so despite a slower start on the target front while sharing the field with TE Dawson Knox. But the work picked up.

More Value After OC Switch

Kincaid drew 12.5% of Bills targets across six games shared with Knox to open the season. That jumped to 19.8% after Knox got hurt.

Even with Knox back over the final seven games, Kincaid still drew 17.7% of targets. He also saw his average target depth nearly double after the Bills switched from OC Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady.

Kincaid went from a 4.19 aDOT under Dorsey to 8.36 under Brady. His yards per catch climbed as well (8.7 to 10.1), but there's room for further growth if that trend continues.

Iffy Receiving Corps

After shedding last year's top two WRs, Buffalo imported Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and second-round rookie Keon Coleman.

None of those players is likely to seize a Diggs-type role. How the targets get divided will be the biggest question in Buffalo ... likely into the season.

But when you're just 24 and coming off a No. 2 ranking in that category ... you're in pretty good shape.

  

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