Bo Nix - Fantasy Points Outlook

The Broncos spent the second pick of Round 4 on Oregon WR Troy Franklin. The No. 3 WR in the 2021 recruiting class broke out as a sophomore in 2022, leading the Ducks with 61 catches, 891 yards, and 9 TDs. He blasted by those numbers this past year, finishing top-6 in the country in receiving yards (1,383) and TDs (14). Franklin’s 3.32 yards per route ranked sixth among 286 qualifying WRs. His 87.3 Pro Football Focus receiving grade ranked 15th. Franklin was dominant going deep, averaging a huge 17.1 yards per catch and ranking top-10 in the nation in catches (14), receiving yards (558), and TDs (7) on targets 20+ yards downfield. He ran a 4.41-second 40-yard dash at the Combine and looks at least that fast on tape. Franklin regularly ran by DBs in man coverage and defeated angles vs. zone coverage. That speed also makes him a weapon after the catch. The concerns: Franklin is a wiry 6’2, 176-pounder and struggles with drops (8.0% career drop rate). He’s not a good bet to emerge as a No. 1 WR in the NFL. But his big-play ability gives him the potential to score a bunch of fantasy points without big target volume. Franklin’s dynasty value obviously takes a big hit after he fell to Round 4. But he landed with the team that drafted his QB of the past two years, Bo Nix, in Round 1. The Broncos traded away WR Jerry Jeudy this offseason. They still have WR Courtland Sutton under contract through 2025. He has been a subject of trade rumors, however, and sports a cuttable dead-cap number ($3.825 million) for the final year of his deal. WR Marvin Mims arrived in the second round of 2023 but has yet to truly break through. Ultimately, there's room for Franklin to earn a prominent role over the next few years. He'll carry upside if he slides far enough in your rookie draft. Expect his rookie ADP to decline vs. where it was pre-NFL Draft. How much that declines will be key to whether you should target him.

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The Broncos selected Oregon QB Bo Nix in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Nix hit the college scene as one of the top 2019 recruits. Success never arrived at Auburn, though. Across three seasons, Nix never topped 2,500 yards or 20 TDs. You can put some of the blame on an underwhelming supporting cast. Or a coaching staff that simply didn’t highlight Nix’s strengths. Here’s how ESPN college football analyst Paul Finebaum reacted after Nix left Auburn. “I think he has an opportunity to have a really big year somewhere, under the right coach,” Finebaum predicted. “Now, who is the right coach? Certainly, someone who can mirror his game. That was really his problem this year, he was playing in a system that really didn’t suit him.” Well, a complete 180 happened in Oregon under HC Dan Lanning. Nix exploded in 2022 with 3,589 yards, 29 TDs, and only 7 INTs. He popped with an 82.3% adjusted completion rate and 8.8 yards per attempt. Nix’s numbers reached another level in 2023, as he enjoyed another campaign alongside Round 1 WR Troy Franklin. One thing to note: Nix wasn’t one to consistently push the ball downfield. 23% of his attempts at Oregon came on screens. And in 2023, his aDOT hit a shockingly low 6.8 yards. On tape, Nix looks like a polished pro whose timing, accuracy, and decision-making give him a chance to stick as a long-term starter. Landing in Denver gives Nix a good shot at starting Week 1, with Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson as his (meager) competition. This draft position boosts Nix as a dynasty rookie pick. Check our rookie rankings to see where he lands.

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Oregon QB Bo Nix measured in at just over 6'2, 214 pounds at the NFL Combine. He threw in front of scouts but passed on athletic testing. Nix stayed at college for five years, although his career took off following a 2022 transfer to Oregon. Over the past two seasons, he’s combined for 8,101 yards and 74 TDs (27 games). NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah believes Nix will start "pretty early on," citing his accuracy, decision-making, and experience. While Nix isn't a top-end athlete, he showed flashes of being able to evade heavy pressure on tape. Recent Round 1 buzz suggests at least a chunk of teams view him as a long-term starter. We're just not buying into a high-end fantasy ceiling here.

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