FF Tips

Reading the Defenses: Who Are the Tough Matchups for QBs?

By Matt Schauf 11:07am EDT 7/14/17

I have a problem.

So, I have a couple of articles coming up within the next week focused on QBs. For my money, that position swings more on matchups than any other in fantasy football. And that means strength of schedule has been on my mind.

Here’s my problem: I can’t just take last year’s numbers and project the matchups forward. That would be lazy. And lazy ain’t how I do my fantasy stuff. If anything, I swing it too far in the other direction.

So I’ve been digging into QB points-allowed numbers this week and figured I’d share some stuff here before I get to the articles themselves.

Passing Points vs. Total Points

My 1st question: How do you measure the matchups?

Sure, we could just look at the total QB points allowed for each defense. But what about the teams that give up more on the ground? Arizona, for example, allowed 348 yards and 4 TDs rushing to QBs last year. That’s 160 more yards and 2 more TDs than the league averages.

Unless you believe that playing those Cardinals added significant rushing upside to Matt Ryan’s fantasy outlook, then filtering out the points earned only via the pass seems like a good idea.

If you look at only passing points, then 8 defenses rose or fell by 5+ spots in last year’s points-allowed rankings—led by Miami climbing from 28th to 20th and the Jets falling from 17th to 26th.

Over the past 12 years, an average of 6.3 teams per season have climbed or fallen 5+ spots in the passing-points rankings vs. total points. So although the differences proved largely negligible, there were enough movers to make it worth looking at the passing numbers alone. After all, that’s the area we’re most interested in when trying to figure out if a given QB faces a sweet draw that week.

Sorry, the rest of this content is reserved for DS Insiders.

Get instant access to read it all.

Get the insider information

Already a DS Insider? Login now

Share This!

Agree? Disagree? Tell us what you think in the comments:

comments powered by Disqus

Related Fantasy Football

Dynasty Prospect Profile: Rashaad Penny

Fast. Durable. Productive. Is there any reason to doubt Rashaad Penny?

10 hours ago Read More
Dynasty Prospect Profile: Josh Rosen

How good is a QB prospect when you need to invent reasons to pass on him?

2:03pm EDT 3/16/18 Read More
Dynasty Prospect Profile: D.J. Moore

Moore checks all the boxes -- production, measurables, film -- and might just land atop the pre-draft rookie WR rankings.

2:03pm EDT 3/15/18 Read More
Dynasty Prospect Profile: Baker Mayfield

The Heisman Trophy winner just might follow some high-profile NFL starters in breaking the mold at QB.

9:03pm EDT 3/14/18 Read More
Fantasy Football Podcast: Free Agent Frenzy 3-14-18

The podcast crew is back to break down all the early action of NFL free agency.

4:03pm EDT 3/14/18 Read More
Dynasty Prospect Profile: Kerryon Johnson

Johnson carries a 3-down skill set to the NFL. But will a checkered injury history allow him to truly flourish?

9:03am EDT 3/13/18 Read More
Dynasty Prospect Profile: Christian Kirk

Kirk played almost exclusively in the slot at A&M and projects to the same spot as a pro. But that doesn't mean he can't be a big-time fantasy asset.

9:03am EDT 3/12/18 Read More

Read More Articles

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Download on Google Play