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Keon Coleman Dynasty Value

By Jared Smola | Updated on Wed, 01 May 2024 . 2:42 PM EDT
Keon Coleman Dynasty Value: The next Mike Williams?

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Keon Coleman boasts some of the most impressive highlights in this year's WR class. He combines a big frame with high-end ball skills to make some awesome contested catches.

But you might be surprised to find out how often Coleman lost 50/50 balls. And that's not even the most concerning thing about his profile ...

Read on to find out why Coleman looks like one of the riskier WR prospects in the 2024 class.

         

Keon Coleman Dynasty Values

Dynasty 1-qb Dynasty Superflex
Non-PPR 35.3 Non-PPR 22.5
PPR 36.3 PPR 26.5
TE Premium 35.9 TE Premium 26.6

To see Keon Coleman's value for your exact league setup, check out our Dynasty Draft War Room.

       

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Keon Coleman Draft Profile

Position: WR
Height: 6'3
Weight: 213
BMI:
26.6
Draft Age: 20.9
NFL Draft Pick: Round 2, Pick 1


Draft Sharks Model Score: 7.42
Analytics Score: 0.44
Film Score: 0.41
Production Score: 0.44

Keon Coleman Combine Results

Wingspan Arm Length HAnd Size 40-yard Dash 10-yard split
78.1" 32.1" 9.4" 4.61 seconds 1.54 seconds
Bench Press Vertical Broad Jump 3-cone drill 20-yard shuttle
DNP 38.0" 10'7 DNP DNP

Percentiles vs Combine wide receivers since 1999, per MockDraftable

     

Keon Coleman College Stats

games targets receptions rec yards yards per catch rec tds
2021 10 9 7 50 7.1 1
2022 12 88 58 798 13.8 7
2023 12 87 50 658 13.2 11

Highly Sought After Recruit

Coleman played on both sides of the ball at Opelousas Catholic High School. He had a huge 2019 junior season, racking up 1,143 yards and 22 TDs on offense and picking off seven passes on defense.

Coleman ultimately garnered a four-star grade from most recruiting services and scholarship offers from over 40 schools.

Michigan State Breakout

He opted to head to Michigan State but played just 87 snaps as a freshman on a WR corps led by future NFLers Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor.

But Coleman emerged as the Spartans’ No. 1 WR the following season, ahead of then-senior Jayden Reed. Coleman led the squad in all major receiving categories, accounting for:

  • 22.5% of the receptions
  • 27.7% of the receiving yards
  • 30.4% of the receiving TDs

He also beat Reed 2.07 to 1.83 in yards per route, although Coleman ranked just 107th among 198 qualifying WRs nationwide. He ranked 79th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Coleman Transfers to Florida State

Coleman opted to enter the transfer portal in April 2023 and made the move to Florida State in May.

Michigan State was in the midst of a QB competition at that point, but Coleman cited Florida State’s culture as the reason for his transfer.

“Out of high school, they were recruiting me pretty hard. They have a great quarterback, great receiving room. Most of all, I love the coaching staff. They’ve got 90 percent of the team coming back this year so we have a chance to do something very special and I just wanted to be a part of that.”

Underwhelming 2023 Season

Coleman missed one game with an undisclosed injury last year and opted out of the Orange Bowl. He still led the Seminoles in all major receiving categories. His market shares in 12 games played:

  • 22.0% of the receptions
  • 21.9% of the receiving yards
  • 45.8% of the receiving TDs

Coleman’s 11 TDs tied for 11th most in the country.

But, by many measures, Coleman wasn’t even the best WR on his own team last year. Check out how he compared to Johnny Wilson in key metrics:

Coleman wilson
Targets Per Game 7.3 7.0
Catches Per Game 4.2 4.1
Yards Per Game 54.8 61.7
TDs Per Game 0.9 0.2
Targets Per Route 0.23 0.27
Yards Per Target 7.6 8.8
Yards Per Route 1.74 2.42
PFF Receiving Grade 70.6 74.7

It’s certainly worth noting that Wilson was a 22-year-old senior while Coleman was a 20-year-old junior. And Wilson had a full season of experience in Florida State’s offense. Coleman didn’t even get a full 2023 offseason in the system after arriving in May.

But it was still a fairly underwhelming season for Coleman. He ranked 149th in PFF receiving grade among 286 WRs in the country with 50+ targets and 175th in yards per route. 

A final note: 39.8% of Coleman's yardage for the season came in two games. He failed to reach 50 yards in six of his 12 outings.

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The Draft War Room is your fantasy football cheat sheet for dynasty rookie drafts. Sync your league today to see how Keon Coleman and the rest of the rookies rank in your league.

        

Keon Coleman Highlights

Games watched: LSU, Clemson, Wake Forest, Southern Miss, Virginia Tech

A Highlight Factory

Coleman can be dominant in contested situations, leading to some of the most impressive highlights in this year’s WR class.

He combines a big vertical, impressive body control, and strong hands to win 50/50 balls over smaller DBs.

Here’s Coleman using a subtle pushoff just before the ball arrives and making a strong grab through contact.

Keon Coleman's strong hands will be a boon to his dynasty value.

On this TD, Coleman tracks the ball and times his leap perfectly to make a high-point grab over his defender.

Keon Coleman will derive plenty of dynasty value from his jump-ball skills.

But Highlights Can Be Misleading

Coleman is a classic example of why it’s important to watch every route a WR runs, rather than just the highlights.

Because he wasn’t as good in contested situations as the highlights make it seem. In fact, Coleman came down with just 20 of 46 (43%) contested targets over the last two seasons, according to Pro Football Focus. That includes just 10 of 30 last year.

Separation Problems

Just as concerning as the subpar contested catch conversion rate is the fact that so many of Coleman’s targets were contested. 26% of them for his career, to be exact.

On one hand, it’s a positive that Coleman’s QBs trusted him to make plays even when covered.

On the other hand, that 26% career contested target rate is a direct result of Coleman’s struggles separating from defenders.

He’s below average in terms of agility and long speed. You rarely see him create big space from a defender. And when he does, the defender is often able to make that ground back up with superior speed.

Keon Coleman's dynasty value will be challenged by his struggles separating from defenders.

Per Pro Football Focus, Coleman’s separation rate vs. single coverage falls in the 47th percentile among all FBS WRs.

Good After The Catch

Coleman plays more athletically after the catch than before it. He has decent burst and plenty of power to break tackles.

Florida State designed plays to get the ball in his hands last year, targeting him 20 times on screens. Coleman average a solid 6.4 yards after the catch on his screen receptions.

On this big catch and run, Coleman makes one defender miss and hurdles another.

Keon Coleman will add dynasty value with his after-the-catch skills

          

Keon Coleman Team Fit:  Buffalo Bills

Coleman was a post-draft riser. He didn't quite get first-round draft capital but was the first pick of Round 2. And he landed on a Bills squad in need of WR help.

The offseason departures of WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis leave behind:

  • 42% of last year's targets
  • 40% of the catches
  • 45% of the receiving yards
  • 52% of the receiving TDs

Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir are not No. 1 WRs. If Coleman hits, he'll quickly emerge as the top dog in Buffalo.

The Perfect QB

Coleman couldn't have landed with a better QB than Josh Allen, an aggressive passer willing to throw into tight windows. Allen has ranked top three in three straight seasons in Pro Football Focus’ Big Time Throw stat, which is defined as "a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window."

This pair should mesh well, giving Coleman a good shot to maximize his target and TD upside.

  

Dynasty Value Conclusion

Coleman is a polarizing prospect.

There are certainly things to like about his profile. He’s a big-bodied, physical receiver with impressive ball skills. He turned in a promising sophomore season at Michigan State, outproducing then-senior Jayden Reed. And he’s a 21-year-old, early declare.

But there are also concerning warts here. Coleman never reached a 30% share of his team’s receptions or receiving yards. He was outperformed in most metrics last year by WR Johnny Wilson, a projected Day 3 pick. Coleman consistently struggled to separate from college DBs. And he actually converted fewer than 50% of his contested targets over the past two seasons.

We’ve seen plenty of WRs with this profile bust. Coleman looks like one of the riskier prospects in this WR class.

But he couldn't have landed in a better spot, which boosts his chances of hitting. Coleman is ultimately worth taking a shot on late in Round 1 of dynasty rookie drafts.

See where Coleman is going in current startup dynasty ADP -- and best ball ADP.

        

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