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Xavier Worthy Dynasty Value

By Kevin English | Updated on Mon, 22 Apr 2024 . 10:39 AM EDT
Xavier Worthy Dynasty Value: Can speed outweigh Worthy's deficient size in the NFL?

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Worthy produced across all three seasons at Texas.

He totaled 197 catches, 2,755 yards, and 26 TDs with four different QBs.

Worthy dusted Big 12 DBs with rare speed, burst, and acceleration.

He weighs only 165 pounds, though – the same as the day he stepped on campus.

Is Worthy on a DeVonta Smith path? Or does his profile make him a bust?

 

Xavier Worthy Dynasty Values

Dynasty 1-qb Dynasty Superflex
Non-PPR 55.0 Non-PPR 35.5
PPR 48.4 PPR 38.5
TE Premium 49.2 TE Premium 37.3

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Xavier Worthy Draft Profile

Position: WR
Height: 5'11
Weight: 165
BMI:
23.0
Draft Age: 21.0
NFL Draft Pick: TBD


Draft Sharks Model Score: 7.78
Analytics Score: 0.79
Film Score: 0.38
Production Score: 0.62

Xavier Worthy Combine Results

Wingspan Arm Length HAnd Size 40-yard Dash 10-yard split
74 1/4" 31 1/8" 8 3/4" 4.21 1.49
Bench Press Vertical Broad Jump 3-cone drill 20-yard shuttle
- 41" 10' 11" - -

Percentiles vs Combine WRs since 1999, per MockDraftable

 

Xavier Worthy College Stats

Games targets receptions receiving yards yards per catch RECEIVING tds
2021 12 103 62 981 15.8 12
2022 13 113 60 760 12.7 9
2023 14 119 75 1,014 13.5 5

Worthy Starts Fast

The four-star recruit chose Texas over other high-profile offers such as Alabama and Michigan.

He delivered immediately alongside first-year starting QB Casey Thompson:

  • 28.7% of the receptions
  • 36.2% of the receiving yards
  • 41.3% of the receiving TDs

The undersized speedster hit the national stage with big games against Kansas (14-152-3) and Oklahoma (9-261-2).

But would his momentum carry into 2022?

QB Change Leads to Lower Efficiency 

Worthy remained the lead receiver for Texas, pacing the team in catches, yards, and TDs.

He didn’t build off the excellent freshman campaign, though.

Worthy’s catch rate dropped from 63% to 52.2% with five-star transfer Quinn Ewers at QB.

One reason why: Worthy’s average depth of target spiked to 17.6 -- but produced a career-low 12.8 yards per catch. He also tallied a career-worst drop rate (10.6%).

HC Steve Sarkisian later shared that Worthy played roughly half of the season with a fractured finger.

Another Productive Campaign in ‘23

For the third straight season, Worthy led Texas in catches and yards. A career-high 119 targets certainly helped. 

And that was with the arrival of WR Adonai Mitchell, a potential Round 1 pick. Worthy also battled a late-season ankle injury.

The junior even cleaned up the drops a bit (6.3%), although he posted his worst season in contested situations (23.8%).

In a three-year sample, Worthy’s at a subpar 34.1% contested catch rate.

Call it unsurprising for a 5’11, 165-pounder. Still, Worthy’s NFL team should be able to work around that deficiency.

Let’s see how Texas utilized him …

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The Draft War Room is your fantasy football cheat sheet for dynasty rookie drafts. Sync your league today to see how Xavier Worthy and the rest of the rookies rank in your league.

 

Xavier Worthy Highlights

Games watched: Kansas State (2023), BYU (2023), Texas Tech (2023), TCU (2023), Iowa State (2023), Alabama (2023 and 2022)

Pure Speed

Speed is clearly Worthy's biggest strength. 

He's the fastest WR in the draft and will instantly be one of the fastest athletes league-wide.

In the first clip, we see Worthy's elusiveness on screens. He makes the catch behind the line of scrimmage against BYU and maneuvers well past the first-down marker.

Xavier Worthy's dynasty value gets a boost thanks to his run-after-catch ability. He flashes that with a nice gain on this screen against BYU.

Texas recognized that and fed him easy opportunities. Nearly 23% of his catches came on screens. For his career, Worthy averaged a strong 7.3 yards after catch per reception.

On tape, you can see how defenses respect Worthy's deep speed. In this second clip, he does well to sell a vertical route before snapping it off. Then, we see him easily evade an oncoming DB before turning on the jets. 

Xavier Worthy threatens defenses vertically -- adding a big-play element to his dynasty value. He creates space for this mid-range catch against Kansas State by threatening a deeper route.

Quite simply -- he's dangerous in one-on-one situations.

Worthy had his moments as a downfield weapon, but it's important to note that it wasn't a major part of his game. Shaky QB play contributed to just a 25.5% career catch rate on deep balls (20+ air yards). 

In this next clip, Worthy overcomes tight coverage from fifth-year 'Bama CB Jaylen Key (6'2, 210). Again, this wasn't a common occurrence in his tape. But Worthy's olympic speed supplies a chance to separate from any coverage.

Xavier Worthy didn't catch a ton of deep balls at Texas. But his downfield speed adds to his dynasty value and could take off with better QB play.

In the final clip, we see Worthy's play-strength limitations. You could call this a good play by the Iowa State DB to break it up -- and it is. But Worthy could still have caught it.

Xavier Worthy's not the most physical WR. And a lack of play strength might limit his dynasty value. Here it keeps him from catching a pass against Iowa State.

Worthy measured in with small hands at the Combine: 8.75 inches, placing him in the ninth percentile among WRs.

As the contested numbers say, this clip wasn't an isolated case.

 

Dynasty Value Conclusion

How can I not lead with Worthy’s size?

He’s 5’11, 165 pounds – at least according to his Combine weigh in. 

Maybe he dropped a few pounds to help hit the record-setting 40 time. But keep in mind that his ESPN recruiting page also lists him at 165 pounds. (You can’t trust the University of Texas listing: 6’1, 172.)

Let’s say his NFL team wants him at 170 ...

Even at that weight, only two WRs since 2000 – DeVonta Smith and Tank Dell – have reached 10 PPR points per game.

Of course, not all 165-pounders are created equal. Worthy’s special speed and acceleration give him a chance at an outlier outcome. He’s certainly poised for a sizable role, with most analysts forecasting top-50 draft capital.

We’ll see about the landing spot. But even in the perfect environment, I don’t see the 120+ target player that typically pushes for WR1 outcomes.

Check his current dynasty ADP.

 

Xavier Worthy Team Fit: Dallas Cowboys

I think Worthy would be miscast as a real-life WR1. So joining a team with CeeDee Lamb wouldn’t be a negative – especially considering Dallas’ nonexistent WR depth.

(Note: Brandin Cooks, 31 in September, is entering a contract season.)

As of this writing, Dak Prescott remains without a long-term deal. It sounds like an offseason deal isn’t a guarantee, a storyline for dynasty managers to watch closely.

 

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