Not gonna lie ...
The NFL Draft left me feeling even more confident about my pre-draft dynasty IDP rookie rankings.
The rumors that Tyree Wilson would go before Will Anderson Jr. proved wrong.
Jack Campbell not only emerged as the class' top LB. He gained two rounds of separation.
Safety looks gross. DT carries upside.
And there are players sprinkled throughout the board with red flags on:
That includes players in the first half of Round 1.
We'll sort through those issues below, talk through some sleepers, and dig into extended rankings by position.
TIP
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Here's a list of the combined dynasty IDP rookie rankings.
Below you'll find more info on each player, with expanded rankings by position beyond that.
Now let's get to know these guys a little better ...
Anderson not only left the board first among defensive players in the NFL Draft. He motivated the Texans to trade up from No. 12 to No. 3 after making their first selection of the night.
They gave up the 33rd pick, as well as first- and third-rounders next year. They wanted him bad.
And why wouldn't they? Anderson racked up 10.5 tackles for loss and 7 sacks as a true freshman in the SEC.
Then he merely followed that by becoming the first player to ever win back-to-back SEC Defensive Player of the Year awards.
As I said previously, betting against this guy doesn't seem wise.
Speed Score: 113.0
Career Tackles For Loss per game: 1.43
Career Sacks per game: 0.84
Final-year TFL per game: 1.31
Final-year Sacks per game: 0.77
Drew Sanders was commonly mocked ahead of Campbell in the NFL Draft. Instead, he went two rounds later.
That locks Campbell in as the dominant No. 1 LB in this class.
Some have complained about his lack of big-play upside, and it's fair to criticize Detroit for targeting a low-value position. But our dynasty squads don't care about that.
This draft capital means the Lions expect Campbell to start right away and plan to leave him on the field in all packages.
We'll happily take a guy who led the FBS in tackles in 2021 and defensed 15 career passes.
And by the way, we're not giving away athleticism here. Campbell delivered the sixth-best Relative Athletic Score ever among LBs (dating back to 1987).
Speed Score: 106.5
Career Tackles per game: 8.79
Career Solos per game: 4.09
Career Tackles For Loss per game: 0.37
Career Passes Defensed: 10
Final-year Tackles per game: 9.62
Final-year Solos per game: 4.54
Final-year TFL per game: 0.42
Final-year PD: 1
Surprised this isn't Tyree Wilson?
Van Ness is about a year younger than Wilson and left school early, whereas Wilson spent five years at two schools. Van Ness also comes without a foot injury. (Wilson had surgery at the end of last season that included getting a screw inserted.)
Wilson's injury kept him from testing, so we can't compare their athleticism numbers. But we do know that Van Ness produced an 80th-percentile 3-cone drill and a 96th-percentile speed score.
The combo of size, athleticism and youth is exciting. And Rashan Gary's ACL recovery adds room for immediate impact.
Speed Score: 123.6
Career Tackles For Loss per game: 0.73
Career Sacks per game: 0.5
Final-year TFL per game: 0.81
Final-year Sacks per game: 0.46
I thought about knocking Wilson further than this. Really, if you're targeting him fourth among IDPs in your rookie draft, then you're probably not drafting him.
Instead, I'll just tell you that Wilson and the next two edge players form a tier.
He's a good-looking prospect on tape. But that foot injury robbed us of testing numbers that would help compare Wilson with the rest of the class.
I can't help but wonder why a guy talented enough to go seventh overall in the NFL Draft took so long to break out in college.
Wilson redshirted as a freshman and didn't post meaningful production until his fourth college season.
He did rack up 1.4 tackles for loss per game in his abbreviated 2022. Still, I'm probably passing on him and waiting for one of the next two guys on this list.
Speed Score: n/a (no 40 time because of injury)
Career Tackles For Loss per game: 0.91
Career Sacks per game: 0.49
Final-year TFL per game: 1.40
Final-year Sacks per game: 0.7
I questioned Murphy's junior-year production drop (third on his team in pressures) before the draft. But I'm not too concerned about that with a better grasp on the class as a whole.
The knock on Murphy is that he might wind up no more than a "base" DE, the kind of player more likely to tally run tackles and fall short of double-digit sacks.
But he did lead Clemson with 12 tackles for loss as a true freshman in 2020. He declared early for the draft, got picked in Round 1, and brings good size (6'4.5, 268 pounds).
Murphy also tested fairly well. His 7.21-second 3-cone drill proved average for the position, but he delivered a 95th-percentile speed score.
Considering the weakness at other positions and red flags on other edge prospects, Murphy's well worth a shot here. A projected slow start amid a strong Bengals edge group hurts him even in our dynasty IDP rankings, though.
Speed Score: 121.8
Career Tackles For Loss per game: 1.03
Career Sacks per game: 0.53
Final-year TFL per game: 0.85
Final-year Sacks per game: 0.5
Getting picked at the end of Round 1 jumped Anudike-Uzomah from "intriguing" to "exciting."
He didn't produce a 40 time in predraft testing. But the former Kansas State pass rusher delivered a 70th-percentile burst score and 84th-percentile agility score with his other measurements.
That included the class' second-best 3-cone time (6.94 seconds).
Most importantly, Anudike-Uzomah produced on the field. He ranks 10th in the edge class in career tackles for loss per game and fourth in career sacks per game.
Inside-outside versatility should only help him get onto the field.
Speed Score: n/a
Career Tackles For Loss per game: 0.98
Career Sacks per game: 0.76
Final-year TFL per game: 0.79
Final-year Sacks per game: 0.61
If you know Kancey, then you know he's tiny for the position: 6'1, 281 pounds. His 1st-percentile arm length won't help.
It's possible he just winds up too small for a full, productive NFL role. And the Bucs taking him in the middle of Round 1 didn't make him less risky.
But it does mean they -- and likely other teams -- believe that Kancey's explosiveness makes up for his ... (ahem) ... shortcomings.
Kancey's top-shelf speed produced much bigger pressure numbers than his DT class mates, including 0.9 tackles for loss per game for his career and 1.2 per game last season.
If he hits, he could be a difference maker in your DT slot. If you're not required to play a DT, then feel free to skip over him.
Speed Score: 118.2
Career Tackles For Loss per game: 0.93
Career Sacks per game: 0.43
Final-year TFL per game: 1.32
Final-year Sacks per game: 0.68
Why does the 15th overall pick slot behind several guys here who were drafted later?
McDonald's almost 24. He's slim for the position (239 pounds). He posted just a 31st-percentile speed score. Even if you take the weight component out of that, McDonald's 40 time rated just 58th percentile among edge prospects.
He did post the class' best 3-cone time, an elite 6.85 seconds. And his 0.71 sacks per game for his career ranks fifth in the class.
So there's upside but also questions about McDonald's immediate readiness and long-term NFL ceiling.
Speed Score: 93.9
Career Tackles For Loss per game: 0.84
Career Sacks per game: 0.71
Final-year TFL per game: 0.63
Final-year Sacks per game: 0.42
The case against Carter in fantasy: He posted just OK numbers in college. That included 15.5 tackles for loss in 27 games over the past two years.
The argument for him: The game tape shows a player capable of embarrassing blockers, and then he landed inside the top 10 on a team with a loaded front seven.
Carter is definitely capable of posting bigger numbers in the pros than he did at Georgia.
He's also likely only for DT-required dynasty leagues.
Speed Score: n/a
Career Tackles For Loss per game: 0.53
Career Sacks per game: 0.17
Final-year TFL per game: 0.54
Final-year Sacks per game: 0.23
TIP
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While everyone focused on Will Levis, this should have been the much more surprising "fall" -- especially relative to Jack Campbell's draft position.
Sanders landed in Round 3, with a Denver defense that returns LB Josey Jewell and re-signed Alex Singleton.
I've knocked him down these rankings much more for draft tumble than the landing spot, but Sanders will likely need one of those guys to get hurt if he's to return fantasy value in 2023.
Long term: Sanders' pass-rush ability (9.5 sacks last season) offers attractive upside. But it's questionable how much that applies for a non-edge LB. Devin
White delivered a 9-sack second season in Tampa Bay. He has nine total sacks since. And he's still on the upper extreme of sack production for the position.
All that said, Sanders presents enough upside to be worth a shot at this stage of your draft, amid a weak LB class.
Speed Score: 101.4 (Drew Sanders 40 time from pro day)
Career Tackles per game: 5.04
Career Solos per game: 2.07
Career Tackles For Loss per game: 0.59
Career Passes Defensed: 7
Final-year Tackles per game: 8.58
Final-year Solos per game: 3.33
Final-year TFL per game: 1.13
Final-year PD: 5
It's OK if you still don't want to spend a pick at CB this high in your dynasty rookie draft. But we can only push the top guy so far down the board in this class.
Witherspoon left the board first among corners in the NFL Draft, which is obviously good for his chances of playing quickly.
He also delivered nice college numbers, including:
Going to Seattle also lands Witherspoon across from 2022 revelation Tariq Woolen. The incumbent's 72.1 passer rating allowed last season ranked seventh-best among 86 CBs who played at least 500 snaps, according to Pro Football Focus.
Don't be surprised if opponents lean away from targeting Woolen and toward testing the rookie.
40 time: 4.50 seconds
Career Tackles per game: 3.83
Career Solos per game: 2.80
Career Passes Defensed per game: 0.60
Career INTs: 5
Final-year Tackles per game: 3.42
Final-year Solos per game: 2.67
Final-year PD per game: 1.17
I had reservations about the fantasy outlook for this 6'2, 238-pounder when it was assumed he'd go in the first half of Round 1. That he lasted until Pick 30 confirms my hesitation.
The size-speed combo makes him unique -- which is good and bad.
Smith could deliver just what the Eagles are hoping for and yet not play enough snaps to help in most of our IDP leagues.
We really have no basis for what to expect from a player like Smith, because we haven't seen a player like Smith.
His just OK college production leaves me more wary than excited.
Speed Score: 128.2
Career Tackles For Loss per game: 0.53
Career Sacks per game: 0.33
Final-year TFL per game: 0.875
Final-year Sacks per game: 0.375
Looking for an unfair advantage?
Foskey's primary selling point is speed. He tallied a 91st-percentile 40 time at the Scouting Combine, which produced a 94th-percentile speed score.
He also turned that speed into college production. Foskey ranks seventh in the class in career sacks per game and sixth in final-season sacks per game.
He closed out his Notre Dame run with two years of 10+ sacks and forced 6 fumbles in 2021.
New Orleans should be working youngsters into the edge rotation, with Cameron Jordan near the end (34 in July), and Marcus Davenport and Kaden Elliss gone.
Foskey has a shot to make an impact even in the 2023 IDP rankings.
Speed Score: 120.0
Career Tackles For Loss per game: 0.76
Career Sacks per game: 0.68
Final-year TFL per game: 1.125
Final-year Sacks per game: 0.875
After a quiet first two years at Auburn, Hall turned it on over the past two.
He tallied 24 tackles for loss and 15.5 sacks over that span, averaging 0.96 TFLs and 0.62 sacks per contest.
Hall then rocked a 93rd-percentile speed score at the Scouting Combine and 72nd percentile in both burst and agility.
Combine all that with landing in Seattle, where they have an immediate need, and you have a guy who could quickly break out in the NFL.
If Hall stood 6'5 instead of 6'3, he might have gotten into Round 1.
Speed Score: 118.5
Career Tackles For Loss per game: 0.74
Career Sacks per game: 0.49
Final-year TFL per game: 0.96
Final-year Sacks per game: 0.54
Tuipulotu wasn't nice enough to give us any predraft testing numbers because of a right hamstring injury.
But his final college season gave us plenty to be intrigued by:
That followed freshman All-America and first-team All-Pac-12 nods the previous two years.
Tuipulotu doesn't look like the fastest or quickest guy on film. But the Chargers believed enough to take him in Round 2.
And at not yet 21 years old, Tuipulotu comes in as easily the youngest prospect in an Edge-DL group that averages a draft age of 22.9. That means room for further development and -- let's hope -- improvement.
Speed Score: n/a
Career Tackles For Loss per game: 1.03
Career Sacks per game: 0.68
Final-year TFL per game: 1.57
Final-year Sacks per game: 0.96
Let's start with the downside: He's already 24. And that came with a strange path.
White didn't play edge until his senior year of high school. Even then, he was recruited as a TE. After two years (one redshirt) there, he switched to defense in spring 2019 and broke out with 19 tackles for loss.
ODU canceled the 2020 season amid the pandemic. Then White hurt an ankle playing basketball and basically wiped out his 2021 season (four games).
So we're left judging him by the one ODU season and last year's 7.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss at Georgia Tech.
White runs well for his size -- 60th-percentile speed score among edge prospects -- but might fit as more of a 3-4 DE type.
Landing with a team that values defensive versatility will help. But the Patriots also do a lot of front-seven rotating. So we'll see how soon he can carve out a big enough role to affect our fantasy lineups.
Speed Score: 103.9
Career Tackles For Loss per game: 0.99
Career Sacks per game: 0.32
Final-year TFL per game: 1.17
Final-year Sacks per game: 0.625
Branch's lack of speed pushed him all the way to the 45th overall selection. He ran just a 45th-percentile 40 time among Scouting Combine safeties. At 190 pounds, that comes out to just an 18th-percentile speed score.
But will that limit Branch's performance -- and, in turn, playing time -- or just his role?
If it just means he'll stick at safety instead of CB, that'd be good for his fantasy outlook.
Branch defensed 23 passes over his three Alabama seasons, with 7+ each year. In 2022, he also delivered 90 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, and 2 INTs.
Branch might have a shot to crack the lineup this season, with starting safety Tracy Walker working back from an Achilles' tear.
Speed Score: 86.4
Career Tackles per game: 4.91
Career Solos per game: 3.17
Career Tackles For Loss per game: 0.56
Career Passes Defensed per game: 0.66
Final-year Tackles per game: 6.92
Final-year Solos per game: 4.46
Final-year TFL per game: 1.08
Final-year PD per game: 0.54
Jartavius Martin goes by Quan (his middle name). And his NFL position might be more ambiguous.
According to USA Today's Commanders Wire: "His future in Washington appears to be in the slot — at least for 2023. But there are so many things the Commanders can do with Martin, making the secondary deeper and stronger next season."
That'd be a great place for a rookie corner to collect tackles. We'll see what happens beyond that (and whether there's a new coaching staff).
Martin tallied 17 passes defensed and 4 INTs over the past two seasons. He also grabbed 3 picks back in his 2018 freshman campaign.
40 time: 4.46 seconds
Career Tackles per game: 4.50
Career Solos per game: 2.96
Career Passes Defensed per game: 0.44
Career INTs: 7
Final-year Tackles per game: 4.92
Final-year Solos per game: 3.92
Final-year PD per game: 0.85
At 6'1, 166 pounds, Forbes challenges your sensibilities.
A corner THAT skinny can't possibly survive in the NFL ... right?!?
But the guy declared early and then got drafted in the middle of Round 1. And oh the big plays ...
Forbes even delivered 5 tackles for loss as a sophomore.
This class isn't long on strong IDP bets, so it's easier to take a shot on a type we normally shouldn't like.
40 time: 4.35 seconds
Career Tackles per game: 4.29
Career Solos per game: 2.69
Career Passes Defensed per game: 0.57
Career INTs: 14
Final-year Tackles per game: 3.83
Final-year Solos per game: 2.17
Final-year PD per game: 0.83
If you don't need to start a DT, then skip ahead to the next guy on the list.
If you do, then might I interest you in a guy who can make plays in the backfield?
Benton put up 10 tackles for loss (including 4.5 sacks) in his final season at Wisconsin. Pro Football Focus also credited him with 11 QB hits, tied for fourth-most among all FBS interior D-linemen.
Benton turns 22 this summer and went 80th percentile or better in the 3-cone drill and broad jump at the Scouting Combine, showing impressive agility and explosion for a 6'4, 309-pounder.
Speed Score: 92.8
Career Tackles For Loss per game: 0.49
Career Sacks per game: 0.23
Final-year TFL per game: 0.83
Final-year Sacks per game: 0.375
21. Marte Mapu, Patriots (LB)
22. Daiyan Henley, Chargers (LB)
23. Adetomiwa Adebawore, Colts (DT) ***
24. Dorian Williams, Bills (LB)
25. Trenton Simpson, Ravens (LB)
26. DeMarvion Overshown, Cowboys (LB)
There's not much separating this block of Day 3 LBs.
Mapu tops the tier because he's interesting. NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah called Mapu his "favorite player in the entire draft." Jeremiah called him "fluid" and "instinctive" and said he "just makes plays."
The former safety tallied 13 career tackles for loss, 22 passes defensed and 7 INTs, showing "box" and coverage ability. He looks like a strong candidate for three-down usage.
Henley and Williams land in transitioning LB corps that could present immediate opportunity.
Simpson's athletic testing beat his on-field performance, which is why he lasted until the third round despite an impressive Scouting Combine.
Overshown lands in a crowded Cowboys LB room but brings promise. He racked up 30.5 tackles for loss and 17 passes defensed over five years at Texas.
This group sat as a nice Top 25 at first publishing. But I have since moved Adeboware up a bit for two reasons:
First, I believe there's a little separation between the two sets of LBs in this tier, primarily because of immediate opportunity.
Mapu and Henley look like better bets to challenge for significant 2023 playing time than the other three.
Williams could challenge for a spot with a good summer, but it seems like the Bills are anticipating 2022 third-rounder Terrel Bernard leading the charge to start next to Matt Milano.
The other reason is Adebawore himself. His college production didn't match his flashy Combine performance: He did eclipse 9 tackles for loss or 5 sacks in a college season.
That plus uncertainty over his NFL position pushed the athletic marvel to Round 4.
But the further you get into a rookie draft, the easier it is to just take a shot on a player because of some reason to like him.
In this case, that's the athleticism. And the college numbers weren't bad. They just didn't pop.
Indy reportedly plans to play him at 3-technique DT. If he develops into a starter there, that would boost Adebawore's value in IDP leagues that require DT starters.
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