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Tyler Allgeier - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsTyler Allgeier's Basic Stats

Tyler Allgeier
ADP: 13.12
Bye: 12
Experience: 3
Age: 24.1
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 220
40 Time: 4.60

SPARQx (Rank): 110.10 (49%)
Burst Score (Rank): 116.10 (37%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.45 (46%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 7.09

Tyler Allgeier's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
23.4 0.14 0.8 6.5 0.03 3.6
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
33.8 0.2 0.7 5.1 0 5.2

Tyler Allgeier's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#53 Running Back

84.4 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
13.12 100.5 412.3 2.52 0.2 0 13.8 111.6 0.52

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsTyler Allgeier's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Allgeier frustrated Bijan Robinson managers last year when Arthur Smith turned to him in key situations.

The new offense for the Falcons leans heavily on the primary RB, so Allgeier’s production will be sparse this year unless Robinson gets hurt.

His ADP reflects the need for injury to be relevant. He is only being drafted as an end-of-the-draft flier.

We have him ranked similarly in our 2024 RB rankings due to the new offensive scheme.

Allgeier could snipe a TD or two, but he won’t be reliable as a week-to-week starter without a Robinson injury.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Allgeier’s 876 total yards ranked 36th among RBs. His 18 catches ranked 51st.
  • He did not miss any games due to injury.
  • Allgeier ranked as the PPR RB32 in total fantasy points (131.2) and RB37 in points per game (7.3).
    • He finished RB12 or better twice. He recorded three games between RB13 and RB24.
  • He ranked 25th among all ball carriers in rushing success rate.
  • Allgeier had 180 rushes to Bijan Robinson’s 203.
  • He played 32% of the Falcon’s offensive snaps last season.
  • He averaged:
    • 11.3 carries
    • 41.2 rushing yards
    • 0.25 rushing TDs
    • 1.25 targets (4.2% share)
    • 0.94 catches
    • 11.44 receiving yards
    • 0.06 receiving TDs
  • Allgeier was efficient as a runner. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year, he ranked:
    • 20th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
    • 19th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
    • 39th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
  • He was surprisingly very good as a receiver. Among 59 RBs with 20+ targets, Allgeier ranked:
    • 4th in PFF receiving grade
    • 2nd in yards per route run

What to Expect in 2024

  • Allgeier will play under HC Raheem Morris and first-time OC and play-caller Zac Robinson.
    • Robinson has been on the Rams’ staff since 2019 under Sean McVay, working as the QB coach and pass game coordinator since 2022.
    • While Robinson was on staff, the Rams averaged 456.6 rushes per season.
    • The backup RB had 22.21% of the rushing attempts during that time.
  • Kirk Cousins signed with the Falcons and will provide a significant QB upgrade
    • Last season Cousins had a superior 85.1 PFF passing grade compared to Desmond Ridder (53.2) and Taylor Heinicke (48.5)
  • The Falcons are expected to be pretty good. They lead the NFC South with a 9.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
  • This expectation of success is largely due to Cousins joining the team. The Falcons’ Super Bowl odds jumped from +4000 before Cousins to +2800 after he signed.
  • Allgeier enters his 3rd season at 24 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average RB with his profile produces at peak value in his age-24 season.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Bijan Robinson, RB ATL

10:08pm EST 12/24/23

Bijan Robinson's usage rebounds

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson rushed a team-high 12 times for 72 yards in Sunday's win over the Colts. He added team highs in targets (10), receptions (7), and receiving yards (50). That followed his 7-carry, 1-catch Week 15 but marked his fourth game of 19+ touches among the past six contests. Robinson didn't find the end zone, watching RB Tyler Allgeier log the team's only rushing score. That came from 31 yards out, though. Robinson got all four RB opportunities from inside the 10-yard line for the game. That's good. It's less good that Allgeier garnered 9 carries and Cordarrelle Patterson 7 to Robinson's 12. Week 17 takes the Falcons to Chicago to face a defense that ranks third in rush DVOA.

View all Bijan Robinson Shark Bites »

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson took a season-high 22 carries for 95 yards (4.3 per rush) and a TD in Sunday's loss to the Cardinals. That beat his previous high by 3 carries and marked eight more rushing attempts than he had received in a game since Week 2. Robinson's TD came from 5 yards out, just his third carry from inside the 10-yard line all season -- and his first since Week 6. Tyler Allgeier carried just nine times in a game that found Atlanta leading throughout the first half and the lead going back and forth after the break. Robinson added just one 11-yard catch among 2 targets, but only two teammates drew more targets as Atlanta attempted only 21 passes (vs. 41 rushes). If this signals a change in work split, then Robinson could be a fantasy difference maker the rest of the way. Atlanta now gets a Week 11 bye but faces four strongly positive matchups among the final six games after the bye.

View all Bijan Robinson Shark Bites »

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson saw 11 carries for 51 rushing yards and 2 catches for 8 receiving yards in Week 9 vs. the Vikings. Fellow RB Tyler Allgeier was again a thorn in the side of the rookie, tallying 30 total yards and a rushing TD on a combined 14 touches in the contest. Allgeier’s involvement has cut into Robinson’s fantasy scoring lately. Over the past four games, Robinson only accounts for 34% of the Falcons’ RB touch opportunities. With how frustrating this offense is in the hands of HC Arthur Smith, it’s become tougher to project whether or not the former Texas standout is a low-end RB1 or middling RB2 each week. At least Week 10’s showdown vs. the Cardinals (third-easiest RB matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed) should present a get-right spot for Robinson.

View all Bijan Robinson Shark Bites »

Tyler Allgeier operated as the Falcons' workhorse RB in Tampa Bay on Sunday, with RB Bijan Robinson barely playing due to an illness. Allgeier struggled to get anything going on the ground, totaling just 59 yards on 21 carries. He added 53 yards on three catches, most of that coming on a 46-yard catch and run in the fourth quarter. We'll look for further updates on Robinson but would expect Allgeier to be back in his prior role next week. He averaged 12.5 carries and 1.7 targets over the first six games of the season. Week 8 brings a tough matchup vs. the Titans' ninth-ranked RB defense.

View all Tyler Allgeier Shark Bites »

Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier recorded 13 carries for a team-leading 51 rushing yards in Week 6’s loss vs. the Commanders. His rookie teammate Bijan Robinson logged an equal number of carries with 31 rushing yards and roped in 5 of 8 targets for 43 receiving yards as a pass-catcher in the contest. Though the Falcons’ run game wasn’t super effective on Sunday, Robinson’s contributions in the receiving game elevated him to 13 PPR points. Fantasy managers can hope for a better outing in Week 7 vs. the Buccaneers.

View all Tyler Allgeier Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Tyler Allgeier, RB ATL
Dynasty MVP 42.9
Position Rank #103 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
143
217
374
Dynasty Write-up
Allgeier's proven effective as a two-down thumper, but Bijan Robinson's presence leaves him as more of a handcuff. We'll see if Atlanta's new staff gives us any clues on Allgeier's future.
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