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Caleb Williams Dynasty Value

By Kevin English | Updated on Fri, 26 Apr 2024 . 8:22 AM EDT

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Williams enters the NFL following a dynamic college career.

2022 was the peak, punctuated by first-team All-American honors and a Heisman Trophy.

2021 and 2023 showed further evidence of his enticing fantasy ceiling.

Let's review Williams’ college journey and project his dynasty value.

Caleb Williams Dynasty Values

To see Caleb Williams' value for your exact league setup, check out our Dynasty Draft War Room.

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Caleb Williams Draft Profile

Caleb Williams Combine Results

Percentiles vs Combine QBs since 1999, per MockDraftable

Williams passed on throwing or working out at the NFL Combine. He also declined to undergo medical exams.

In Indianapolis, Williams said he would get medical checkups on team visits. Insider Albert Breer reported on one of those: A meeting with Chicago following USC's March 20 pro day. 

Caleb Williams College Stats

High School Prodigy Turned Oklahoma Sooner

Widely regarded as QB1 of the 2021 class, Williams chose Oklahoma over 21 other offers.

He joined young coaching star Lincoln Riley – plus another star recruit in QB Spencer Rattler.

Still, Williams earned the starting gig midway through his first year. What transpired next: seven spectacular starts and Freshman All-American honors.

Williams, though, was just getting warmed up.

Superstar Status Unlocked

Riley took the HC job at USC in November 2021. Williams followed months later, setting the stage for a phenomenal Heisman campaign.

Alongside transfer WR Jordan Addison, Williams ranked first nationally in passing TDs (42) and third in yards (4,537). Special play-extending ability has garnered comps to Patrick Mahomes. 

Williams led the nation in time to throw -- 3.24 seconds, per Pro Football Focus. 

He ranked third in yards on deep passing (20+ air yards), a nod to his calculated aggressiveness.

Now, would Williams’ momentum continue in 2023?

Williams Shows He’s Human

Review Williams’ 2023 stats above. 

On the surface, they look strong. His completion rate and yards per attempt even increased.

But talent-wise, this Trojan supporting cast regressed.

Jordan Addison left for the NFL. An underperforming and reshuffled O-line didn’t help, either.

So Williams encountered a stretch of adversity for the first time at USC, a three-game lull highlighted by a 199-yard, 3-INT performance at Notre Dame. 

Note that PFF ranked Notre Dame fourth in coverage grade; eight in pass rush grade.

Ultimately, Williams wasn’t able to repeat his magical 2022. But he certainly showed enough to forecast a bright NFL future.

Caleb Williams Highlights

Games watched: Stanford (2022), Utah (2022), Tulane (2022), Washington (2023), Oregon (2023), Notre Dame (2023), UCLA (2023)

You could make a feature film out of Williams’ highlights. They’re simply legendary.

But do they tell the whole story on his dynasty fantasy value?

Caleb Williams: Highlight Master

Williams’ ability to turn a sack or throwaway into an explosive play makes him special.

Take this first throw below. Williams escapes a free rusher, then uncorks a strike from an awkward arm angle. 

You can find similar throws littered throughout his tape. His combo of arm strength and arm talent is simply beyond comparison.

Pocket Presence

While some evaluators question his play inside the pocket, I saw nothing to suggest any red flag. 

Check out this next highlight against Washington’s top-tier defense. 

Williams climbs the pocket, keeps his eyes downfield, and hits 5’10 WR Tahj Washington in stride.

Comfortable in Any Situation

Williams’ situational PFF grades show his lack of a true passing weakness.

The 22-year-old earned a 90+ grade in each of the following areas:

• Clean pocket
• Standard dropback
• Early downs
• No play-action

Williams’ performance vs. pressure dropped off in 2023. But you can assign some blame to the high bar he set in '22 and some to a weaker supporting cast.

Must Improve Ball Security

Williams could certainly improve his ball security. Across three seasons, he fumbled 33 times -- about one per 39 dropbacks.

The final clip below shows what can happen when he tries to do too much. Of course, it's a delicate line to walk and a huge part of what makes Williams so special.

Here's a silver lining, though: Williams' turnovers didn't extend to INTs. He threw only 14 INTs on 1,108 career attempts. And a 2.6% turnover-worthy play rate, per PFF, is far from concerning -- especially when you consider his aggressiveness.

Dynasty Value Conclusion

Williams displays everything you want in a dynasty QB prospect.

Production, arm talent, and experience are just a few of the reasons he should enter fantasy lineups in Year 1. He even flashed rushing upside in college, totaling 27 TDs and one rush of 45+ yards in all three seasons.

Long term, there’s a roadmap that leads Williams to top-5 fantasy production.

Sure, the road to get there might take patience. We're in a golden age of QB play.

But on skill alone, Williams already slots top-10 in our dynasty QB rankings.

Caleb Williams Team Fit: Chicago Bears

As expected, the Bears drafted Caleb Williams with the first overall pick.

In Chicago, he'll work under new OC Shane Waldron, a Sean McVay disciple and the play-caller for Geno Smith’s breakout 2022.

The pass-catching talent is undeniable. D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet return, while GM Ryan Poles really loaded up by adding Keenan Allen and ninth overall pick Rome Odunze. 

Mix in Chicago's improved O-line, and this is an ideal environment for a rookie QB.

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