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Williams boasts an exciting fantasy ceiling, with elite arm talent, sneaky rushing ability, and an excellent play caller in HC Ben Johnson. But he’s still an inconsistent passer playing in a run-leaning offense with a thin supporting cast.
Williams is a fine target if you’re chasing upside, but he’s not a priority pick at his current cost.
Customize his projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.Williams threw for 3,942 yards and 27 TDs last year. Those marks ranked seventh and sixth league-wide.
He added 383 yards and three scores on the ground. Only 6 QBs ran for more yards.
Williams ranked sixth at his position in total fantasy points and 10th in points per game.
He flashed plenty of weekly upside, finishing as a top-4 QB four times. Williams had eight total top-12 scoring weeks, although he also finished 20th or worse five times.
Williams ranked fifth league-wide with 568 total pass attempts and eighth with 33.4 attempts per game.
The Bears leaned on the run in the red zone, though, finishing bottom-6 in pass rate and pass rate over expected. That left Williams:
He did, however, rank fourth in passes into the end zone.
Williams also ranked eighth among QBs with 77 carries.
He finished seventh in expected fantasy points per game.
Williams’ accuracy was a problem last year. Among 42 QBs with 150+ pass attempts, he ranked:
Williams looks a bit better once you account for his 8.9-yard average target depth, which ranked 10th among those 42 QBs. Even so, he finished 22nd in yards per pass attempt and 15th in adjusted yards per attempt.
He ranked 19th in Pro Football Focus pass grade.
Williams also made a big leap in terms of sack avoidance. After taking 68 sacks at a 10.8% sack rate as a rookie in 2024, Williams was sacked just 24 times (4.1% sack rate) last year.
HC Ben Johnson’s scheme and a better offensive line deserve some credit, but Williams improved, too. He cut his pressure-to-sack rate from 28.2% to 10.8%, the third-lowest mark among 42 qualifying QBs last year.
The 2025 Bears finished sixth in total yards and ninth in points. It was a run-leaning offense, ranking:
But the Bears ranked sixth in offensive pace (seconds per play) and second in total plays. That vaulted them to 10th in pass attempts.
Williams played behind an excellent offensive line that finished first in ESPN pass-block win rate and sixth in PFF pass-blocking grade.
The pass-catching corps was less reliable. The Bears ranked 17th in PFF receiving grade and dropped 29 passes, third most league-wide.
Williams finished 24th in fantasy points per game as a rookie in a much worse Bears offense that ranked 28th in points and dead last in total yards.
Williams’ accuracy metrics declined from 2024 to 2025, but he improved everywhere else:
Williams’ rushing production also sank a bit from 28.8 yards per game in 2024 to 22.8 in 2025. His 25.8 yards per game over the last two seasons rank 12th among QBs.
Williams has played all 34 games across his first two NFL seasons.
He didn’t miss any games with injury in college, either. Williams did suffer a hamstring injury in the 2022 Pac-12 championship but played through it and was ready for USC’s bowl game.
Williams returns as Chicago’s starter in 2026. HC Ben Johnson sounds excited about his trajectory.
“The things that we highlighted for Caleb to start the season, I do think they improved as the season went on,” Johnson said at his end-of-season press conference in January. “We revamped the footwork a little bit last spring. I think the comfort level grew from that. He certainly got more comfortable with the concepts we were running over the course of the season. That’s something that we can build upon. I’m really encouraged about the steps he took this year. I’m Caleb Williams’ #1 believer. I have a lot of faith in him, what he’s capable of doing, and the player that he’s still striving to become.”
The Bears traded last year’s leading WR to Buffalo in March. D.J. Moore led the WR corps with 50 catches and 682 yards.
Rome Odunze and Luther Burden beat Moore in yards per game, though, as well as yards per route and PFF receiving grade.
Odunze and Burden return as Williams’ top two WRs this season. The youngsters are still relatively unproven but have flashed exciting upside. Odunze averaged 74.0 yards and 1.3 TDs over last year’s first four games before a foot injury got in the way. Burden never captured a full-time role as a rookie last season but averaged an elite 2.69 yards per route.
TE Colston Loveland might be Williams’ most exciting weapon after finishing top five among 38 qualifying TEs in yards per route and PFF receiving grade as a rookie. He then closed the season by averaging 7.0 catches, 94.5 yards, and 0.5 TDs over his final four games, including the playoffs.
There’s very little behind that trio (WRs Kalif Raymond, Jahdae Walker, and Zavion Thomas and TEs Cole Kmet and Sam Roush), so this is a thin but high-upside pass-catching corps.
On the offensive line, there are two questions heading into 2026.
The first is at LT, where Ozzy Trapilo went down with a ruptured patellar tendon in the Wild Card win over the Packers. That has him unlikely to be ready for the start of this season and leaves Braxton Jones, Theo Benedet, and Jedrick Wills competing for the starting job this summer.
The Bears also lost C Drew Dalman to retirement this offseason. He’s expected to be replaced by Garrett Bradbury, who was acquired from New England via trade in March. Bradbury started all 17 games for the Patriots last year but ranked just 21st among 36 qualifying centers in PFF pass-blocking grade last year.
Chicago returns three 2025 starters in RT Darnell Wright, RG Jonah Jackson, and LG Joe Thuney. But this unit could take at least a slight step back this season.
HC Ben Johnson returns for Year 2 with the Bears. Chicago went from bottom-5 in points and yards in 2024 to top-9 in both categories under Johnson. That followed this three-year run in Detroit for Johnson:
Johnson has been a run-leaning play caller, with all four of his offenses finishing between 20th and 25th in neutral pass rate.
But Johnson has also landed all four of those offenses inside the top-14 in total plays, including top-2 finishes in 2024 and 2025. That’s helped each of Johnson’s teams rank in the top half of the league in pass attempts.
Williams finished 10th among QBs in fantasy points per game last year, despite relatively inefficient passing.
If he improves as a passer in Year 3, paired with plus rushing ability and a strong scheme, Williams could vault into the top five at his position this season.
That inefficient passing adds risk to Williams’ profile, especially since he doesn’t project for huge volume.
The Bears also have a thin pass-catching corps. An injury to Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, or Colston Loveland could sink Williams’ production.
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Is Caleb Williams a Top Fantasy QB in 2026?
Is Caleb Williams a Top Fantasy QB in 2026?
Bears QB Caleb Williams has had a volatile fantasy season, but he capped it with a strong performance against the 49ers. Williams went 25/32 for 330 yards and 2 TDs. He also went 5-18-0 on the ground. With HC Ben Johnson returning along with a bevy of young weapons, the Bears offense could take a step forward WRs Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and D.J. Moore along with TE Colston Loveland could create an elite unit for Williams to throw to.
Rome Odunze & Luther Burden Out For Week 16
Rome Odunze & Luther Burden Out For Week 16
Bears WRs Rome Odunze (foot) and Luther Burden (ankle) are out for Saturday's game vs. the Packers. Neither guy practiced all week. That strips QB Caleb Williams of two of his top targets and leaves D.J. Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus as Chicago's top two WRs. TE Colston Loveland is also a candidate for more work in the passing game. We've had Odunze and Burden projected out all week, so there are no changes to the Week 16 rankings.
Bears-Eagles Weather Update
Bears-Eagles Weather Update
The forecast for today's Bears-Eagles game calls for 15-25 mph winds with gusts up to 35 mph. That's enough to impact deep passes and kicks. We're not adjusting any projections, but you could use the weather as a tiebreaker against guys from this game.
Caleb Williams Struggles vs. Vikings
Caleb Williams Struggles vs. Vikings
Bears QB Caleb Williams threw for just 193 yards in Sunday's win over the Vikings, with no TDs and no INTs. He fumbled once, but a teammate recovered it. Williams added 26 yards on four carries. He lost another 11-yard scramble to an illegal-formation penalty that wiped out the play.
Caleb Williams Delivers in Lopsided Outing
Caleb Williams Delivers in Lopsided Outing
Bears QB Caleb Williams delivered a strong fantasy outing in Sunday’s comeback win over the Giants. The second-year pro tallied 220 passing yards and 1 TD, plus 63 yards and another score on the ground.
See whether Caleb Williams is available in your leagues.
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