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Caleb Williams - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsCaleb Williams's Basic Stats

Draft Sharks
ADP: 9.8
Bye: 7
Experience: 0
Age: 22.6
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 214

Caleb Williams's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
260.4 1.56 0.7 14.5 17.6
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Caleb Williams's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#14 Quarterback

282.3 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
9.8 355.2/555.2 4166.4 24.96 11.2 49.6 232 4.8

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsCaleb Williams's Preseason Player Analysis

View QB Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

There’s plenty to like about this rookie QB – even right away. The biggest problem, however, is that the market already likes him very much. Williams already sits inside the top 12 QBs in best ball ADP. That lofty starting position adds risk to his fantasy outlook. If you take him, draft another QB as insurance.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Williams isn’t bulletproof. He entered 2023 near-universally viewed as the safest QB prospect in at least several years. Then he endured his toughest college campaign.
  • After ranking first nationally in passing TDs and third in passing yards in 2022, Williams shaved more than 20 off his yards per game and 0.7 percentage points off his TD rate.
  • Losing WR Jordan Addison to the NFL obviously hurt.
  • Beyond that, the USC O-line took some blame … but maybe too much.
    • The Trojans ranked 10th among FBS teams in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade in 2022.
    • They fell to just 20th in 2023 (among 133 teams).
  • Williams actually struggled throwing under pressure in two of his three college seasons.
  • Overall, though, his passing performance didn’t tank. Check out Williams’ rates by college year:
  • His rushing performance slipped, however. On run plays alone (excluding yards lost on sacks, which official NCAA stats include in QB rushing) …
    • Williams went from 8.7 yards per carry to 6.6 and then 4.8, according to PFF.
    • He went from 4.95 yards after contact per attempt to 3.82 and then 1.97.
  • Williams also set career highs in fumbles and turnover-worthy throw rate.
    • The fumbling was an issue throughout college.
    • The 2023 combo of turnover plays, however, might be another signal of Williams struggling when facing pressure.
  • Williams, of course, still got drafted first overall. And that eventuality never appeared in doubt.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Williams will obviously start for the Bears right away. That indicates the team not only views him as ready, but also an upgrade over Justin Fields.
  • He’ll also find a seriously upgraded WR corps. Chicago traded for veteran Keenan Allen and then drafted Rome Odunze ninth overall. They join D.J. Moore after a season in which Moore set career highs in yards per game, catch rate, TDs, and receiving success rate (according to Pro Football Reference).
    • Chicago also added TE Gerald Everett to TE Cole Kmet in free agency and signed accomplished receiving RB D’Andre Swift.
  • The Bears parted ways with OC Luke Getsy and replaced him with Shane Waldron.
    • Waldron spent the past three years as Seattle’s OC. The Seahawks ranked 10th in neutral-situation pass rate over that span; ninth in expected points added per dropback.
    • Seattle also ranked among the league’s top 8 in play pace (seconds per snap) each of those seasons, according to FTN.
  • All of that bodes well for the situation that Williams steps into. And we’ve seen enough from Williams – as well as scouting evaluations of him – to know he has the skills to leverage the positive situation.
  • We don’t know just how much to expect from his rushing.
    • Williams’ college career on whole looks positive in that area, but he’s coming off his roughest rushing performance.
    • The NFL will obviously present more pocket pressure and better coverage than Williams has faced before.
  • The rookie needs to prove himself against pressure and limit turnovers to maximize his fantasy potential.

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Rome Odunze, WR CHI

9:13pm EDT 4/25/24

Bears round out stellar WR trio with Rome Odunze

The Bears nabbed WR Rome Odunze with the ninth pick of the NFL Draft. Odunze led the Huskies in catches and receiving TDs in 2021 and then broke out as a redshirt sophomore in 2022 with the arrival of OC Ryan Grubb and QB Michael Penix. Odunze tallied 75 catches, 1,145 yards, and seven TDs that year, while ranking top-45 among 286 qualifying WRs in both Pro Football Focus receiving grade and yards per route. He took another giant leap forward this past season, cranking out an FBS-high 1,640 yards and 13 TDs on 92 receptions. Odunze ranked eighth among 286 qualifying WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 18th in yards per route. And he did it all despite suffering a broken rib and punctured lung in his fifth game. Odunze boosted his draft stock with a better-than-expected Combine showing, earning a 9.92 Relative Athletic Score at 6’3 and 212 pounds. A polished route runner with excellent ball skills, there are shades of Davante Adams in Odunze’s game. He looks ready to make an immediate impact and should quickly emerge as a high-volume target. Odunze will have trouble piling up targets as a rookie, with WRs D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen around. But Allen's not a good bet to remain in the picture beyond 2024. If this landing spot makes Odunze slip at all in your dynasty rookie draft -- take advantage.

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The Bears selected USC QB Caleb Williams with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. A five-star recruit and the No. 2 QB in the 2021 recruiting class, Williams took over as Oklahoma’s starter midway through his freshman campaign. He finished that year with 9.1 yards per pass attempt and a sterling 21:4 TD-to-INT ratio. Williams then followed HC Lincoln Riley to USC and turned in a Heisman-winning 2022 season on the back of 4,537 passing yards and 42 TDs. His raw numbers took a step back this past year (losing WR Jordan Addison hurt), but Williams continued to flash a tantalizing skill set. He has the arm to make every throw, Mahomes-ian creativity and improvisation skills, and plenty of rushing ability. Williams will probably need to stay on script a bit more as a pro and clean up his ball security (33 career fumbles). But he has the potential to put up huge passing numbers while also adding fantasy value with his legs. Chicago supplies Williams with an excellent environment for year-one production – especially after the addition of Keenan Allen. The Bears have also built up a solid O-line in recent years. In 2023, they finished fifth in ESPN’s pass-block win rate. There’s top-five upside here long-term, but Williams sits just 21st in our redraft QB rankings, largely because of the position’s depth.

View all Caleb Williams Shark Bites »

USC QB Caleb Williams declined to throw or work out at the NFL Combine. He spoke to the media but passed on medical testing. “I’ll be doing the medical stuff, just not here in Indy,” Williams said. “I’ll be doing that at [individual team visits pre-draft]. You know, not 32 teams can draft me. There’s only one of me. And so the teams that I go to for my visit, you know those teams will have the medical and that’ll be it… I didn’t feel the need to go out and throw. I played around 30-some games, I believe. Go ahead and watch real live ball with me and see how I am as a competitor.” We’re fully behind Williams as a future dynasty asset. As of early March, he’s the heavy favorite to land No. 1 overall in Chicago.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Caleb Williams, QB CHI
Dynasty MVP 263.4
Position Rank #21 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
775
1,323
2,670
Dynasty Write-up
Williams flashed big-time arm talent after taking over the starting gig at Oklahoma. He then followed HC Lincoln Riley to USC and dazzled with Mahomes-like ability en route to winning the 2022 Heisman. Williams took a step back in 2023. But consider the unreachable bar he set as a true sophomore – and a weakened supporting cast missing WR Jordan Addison. With three career runs of 45+ yards, Williams also brings the athleticism to tally fantasy points on the ground. In Chicago, a WR trio of Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, and Rome Odunze supplies the type of firepower to make Williams a Year 1 fantasy factor.
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