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Roman Wilson Dynasty Value

By Kevin English | Updated on Thu, 02 May 2024 . 3:57 PM EDT
Roman Wilson Dynasty Value: Beware of Low Production?

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Wilson spent four seasons at Michigan. Only his senior year turned up noteworthy production.

In January, Wilson boosted his draft stock with a standout Senior Bowl. Then came a 4.39 forty time at the NFL Combine -- and later, decent Round 3 draft capital to Pittsburgh.

So, how do we square Wilson’s lone year of production with the winter buzz?

Let’s dig in.

Roman Wilson Dynasty Values

Dynasty 1-qb Dynasty Superflex
Non-PPR 27.5 Non-PPR 16.4
PPR 27.6 PPR 15.9
TE Premium 27.1 TE Premium 15.8

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Roman Wilson Draft Profile

Position: WR
Height: 5'11
Weight: 185
BMI:
25.8
Draft Age: 22.9
NFL Draft Pick: Round 3, Pick 20


Draft Sharks Model Score: 6.87
Analytics Score: 0.56
Film Score: 0.51
Production Score: 0.40

Roman Wilson Combine Results

Wingspan Arm Length HAnd Size 40-yard Dash 10-yard split
72 1/2" 30 3/8" 9 3/8" 4.39 1.52
Bench Press Vertical Broad Jump 3-cone drill 20-yard shuttle
12 reps DNP DNP DNP DNP

Percentiles vs Combine wide receivers since 1999, per MockDraftable

  

Roman Wilson College Stats

Games targets receptions receiving yards yards per catch RECEIVING tds
2020 6 14 9 122 13.6 1
2021 13 39 25 420 16.8 3
2022 12 37 25 376 15.0 4
202315674878916.412

Wilson left high school as one of the top-rated prospects in Hawaii.

Some 4,400 miles away, he landed as a Year 1 starter for HC Jim Harbaugh.

But would impactful production come, too?

Run-Heavy Offense Limits Production

Well, not quite...

But keep this in mind:

Michigan’s offense clearly favored the run in three of Wilson’s four seasons. (In 2020, Michigan played a pandemic-shortened, six-game schedule.)

Here’s how they ranked in pass attempts:

  • 2021: 95th (28.2 attempts per game)
  • 2022: 113th (26.4)
  • 2023: 120th (24.0)

Despite the lowest pass volume in 2023, Wilson’s production jumped alongside second-year starting QB J.J. McCarthy. 

Breakout Campaign

Wilson never came close to leading Michigan in catches, yards, or TDs before 2023.

But he swept all major categories last fall with the following market shares:

  • Receptions - 19%
  • Receiving Yards - 25.1%
  • Receiving TDs - 50%

While there’s nothing special about the first two figures, his ability to snag 12 TDs at just shy of 5’11 is impressive.

Also of note: Wilson’s 2.74 yards per route run, which ranked 27th among 213 WRs with 60+ targets. His 16.4 yards per catch tied for 39th in the same sample.

Senior Bowl Winner

Wilson paired his excellent senior campaign with a head-turning Senior Bowl.

He roasted DBs in the one on ones. And he showed both reliable and highlight reel hands.

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler said after the week in Mobile that Wilson “cemented” top-75 draft capital.

That didn't happen...but as the 84th overall pick, he didn't slide far.

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Roman Wilson Highlights

Games watched: Rutgers (2023), UNLV (2023), Bowling Green (2023), Alabama (2023), Purdue (2023)

Dangerous Slot

Wilson does his best work in the slot, where nearly 63% of his targets came last season.

At nearly 5’11, 185 pounds, he figures to play mostly inside in the NFL.

And that’s fine. He can threaten DBs vertically, evidenced by a career average target depth of 14.1 yards.

In this first clip, we see Wilson use a nice head fake to turn the DB around.

The Roman Wilson dynasty value gets a boost from his ability to win downfield.

Playing with QB J.J. McCarthy certainly helped, but Wilson posted one of the best deep ball catch rates in the nation last season (66.7%).

Reliable Hands

In this next clip, we see him extend for the ball and turn on the jets.

Note that Wilson tallied only one drop in 2023. For his career, his drop rate is an acceptable 6.1%.

Roman Wilson's dynasty value looks promising due in part to some sticky hands.

Intentional Usage

Often, Roman was either moved in motion or aligned in a way that kept him off press coverage.

Below, he’s put in motion, making his sub-4.4 speed even tougher to contain.

Roman Wilson's production at Michigan was intentional and featured plenty of pre-snap motion.

Where He’s Lacking

Wilson's pure speed and explosiveness are obvious on tape. But I wonder if he'll need a more creative OC to really maximize his skill set.

A 23-year-old rookie at a major program, we've likely already seen something close to Wilson's ceiling. Now in the NFL, he'll need to prove he can overcome below average size -- something that extends to his wingspan (11th percentile) and arm length (12th percentile).

It's also worth noting that Michigan wasn't eager to utilize Wilson's speed in easy catch-and-run opportunities. He garnered just one screen target in 2023.

 

Roman Wilson Team Fit: Pittsburgh Steelers

Wilson joins a Steelers WR corps with a clear need.

GM Omar Khan dealt Diontae Johnson to Carolina, while offseason arrivals included Van Jefferson and Quez Watkins.

Not great.

So Wilson should at least feature prominently in three-WR sets. The question here is at QB. Can Russell Wilson scratch closer to his Seahawks-level play? And does Justin Fields have another tier to reach as a passer?

While the long-term QB isn’t settled, Wilson’s capable of seeing fantasy-relevant volume come Year 2.

Dynasty Value Conclusion

As expected, Wilson went on Day 2 of the NFL Draft.

Our rookie dynasty rankings place him 19th overall in 1-QB rookie drafts. That's one spot ahead of his current dynasty ADP, making him a fine target. 

Now, we'll easily sell a WR1 fantasy ceiling. But it's quite possible Wilson's deep chops help him deliver WR3 totals within 2-3 seasons.

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