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Roman Wilson Dynasty Value

By Kevin English | Updated on Sat, 27 Apr 2024 . 7:09 AM EDT

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Wilson spent four seasons at Michigan. Only his senior year turned up noteworthy production.

In January, Wilson boosted his draft stock with a standout Senior Bowl. Then came a 4.39 forty time at the NFL Combine.

So, how do we square Wilson’s lone year of production with the winter buzz?

Let’s dig in.

Roman Wilson Dynasty Values

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Roman Wilson Draft Profile

Roman Wilson Combine Results

Percentiles vs Combine wide receivers since 1999, per MockDraftable

Roman Wilson College Stats

Wilson left high school as one of the top-rated prospects in Hawaii.

Some 4,400 miles away, he landed as a Year 1 starter for HC Jim Harbaugh.

But would impactful production come, too?

Run-Heavy Offense Limits Production

Well, not quite...

But keep this in mind:

Michigan’s offense clearly favored the run in three of Wilson’s four seasons. (In 2020, Michigan played a pandemic-shortened, six-game schedule.)

Here’s how they ranked in pass attempts:

• 2021: 95th (28.2 attempts per game)
• 2022: 113th (26.4)
• 2023: 120th (24.0)

Despite the lowest pass volume in 2023, Wilson’s production jumped alongside second-year starting QB J.J. McCarthy. 

Breakout Campaign

Wilson never came close to leading Michigan in catches, yards, or TDs before 2023.

But he swept all major categories last fall with the following market shares:

• Receptions - 19%
• Receiving Yards - 25.1%
• Receiving TDs - 50%

While there’s nothing special about the first two figures, his ability to snag 12 TDs at just shy of 5’11 is impressive.

Also of note: Wilson’s 2.74 yards per route run, which ranked 27th among 213 WRs with 60+ targets. His 16.4 yards per catch tied for 39th in the same sample.

Senior Bowl Winner

Wilson paired his excellent senior campaign with a head-turning Senior Bowl.

He roasted DBs in the one on ones. And he showed both reliable and highlight reel hands.

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler said after the week in Mobile that Wilson “cemented” top-75 draft capital.

That’s saying something in a loaded WR class.

Roman Wilson Highlights

Games watched: Rutgers (2023), UNLV (2023), Bowling Green (2023), Alabama (2023), Purdue (2023)

Dangerous Slot

Wilson does his best work in the slot, where nearly 63% of his targets came last season.

At nearly 5’11, 185 pounds, he figures to play mostly inside in the NFL.

And that’s fine. He can threaten DBs vertically, evidenced by a career average target depth of 14.1 yards.

In this first clip, we see Wilson use a nice head fake to turn the DB around.

Playing with QB J.J. McCarthy certainly helped, but Wilson posted one of the best deep ball catch rates in the nation last season (66.7%).

Reliable Hands

In this next clip, we see him extend for the ball and turn on the jets.

Note that Wilson tallied only one drop in 2023. For his career, his drop rate is an acceptable 6.1%.

Intentional Usage

Often, Roman was either moved in motion or aligned in a way that kept him off press coverage.

Below, he’s put in motion, making his sub-4.4 speed even tougher to contain.

Where He’s Lacking

Wilson's pure speed and explosiveness are obvious on tape. But I wonder if he'll need a more creative OC to really maximize his skill set.

A 23-year-old rookie at a major program, we've likely already seen something close to Wilson's ceiling. Now in the NFL, he'll need to prove he can overcome below average size -- something that extends to his wingspan (11th percentile) and arm length (12th percentile).

It's also worth noting that Michigan wasn't eager to utilize Wilson's speed in easy catch-and-run opportunities. He garnered just one screen target in 2023.

Dynasty Value Conclusion

Wilson projects as a late-Round 2 or Round 3 pick in the NFL Draft. If that bears out, he'll have a real chance to earn a starting role within two years.

Our rookie dynasty rankings place him 20th overall in 12-team, 1-QB rookie drafts. That's two spots behind his current dynasty ADP, making him just an OK target.

Of course, his outlook could improve in a strong landing spot. (See one potential spot below.) Wilson brings plus speed and reliable hands, and he proved it in 2023.

But remember that he brings only one year of production. And can he develop into more than a primary deep threat? Those factors make him more of a wait-and-see on the post-draft landing spot.

Here's the dream outcome...

Roman Wilson Team Fit: Los Angeles Chargers

This one isn’t simply because of the connection to HC Jim Harbaugh. (I promise.)

Just look at the Chargers’ WR depth. As currently constructed, you’re looking at:

• Quentin Johnston
• Josh Palmer
• Derius Davis
• Simi Fehoko

In total, the group owns 200 career catches. 143 come from Josh Palmer, who’s in a contract year.

QB Justin Herbert looked like a strong deep-ball thrower before taking a step back in 2023. Both his efficiency and volume should tick up in 2024 – especially if the Chargers add a downfield threat like Wilson.

Los Angeles’ third-round pick (69th overall) looks like fair value.

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