Bottom Line

Waller last performed as a high-end TE1 in 2020. In the two years since, injuries have ruined any shot at a repeat.

We like the move to New York, where he’ll play under offensive-minded HC Brian Daboll. His unit lacks a No. 1 WR, leaving room for Waller to lead in targets.

You can’t count on him to play all 17 games, but Waller should see the volume to supply a top-3 fantasy ceiling. He’s attractively priced at TE7.

What We Learned Last Year

• Injuries limited Waller in his final season with Las Vegas.
  • After missing six games with knee and ankle injuries in 2021, Waller missed nine with a hamstring in 2022.
• He sat out part of training camp over contract negotiations and hamstring trouble.
• When active, his fantasy numbers proved inconsistent.
  • He finished as a top-12 PPR TE five times, adding four finishes at TE29 or worse.
• Per Pro Football Focus, Waller didn't force any missed tackles on 28 receptions.
• He tallied only 2.8 yards after catch per reception, a career low.
• His 1.58 yards per route run also marked his worst number since becoming a full-time starter. It’s fair to say that he wasn’t playing in peak condition.

What to Expect in 2023

• A healthy Waller should bounce back for fantasy managers.
  • He turns 31 in season, not yet a worrisome age for TEs.
  • When on the field over the past two seasons, Waller has averaged 4.1 catches, 53 yards, and 0.25 TDs per game. A fine level of production given the injury troubles.
• Waller’s back to full health and garnering offseason hype as the Giants’ target leader.
• Clearly, his target competition isn’t fierce.
  • WRs Sterling Shepard and Wan'Dale Robinson are coming off ACL tears.
  • WR Darius Slayton rebounded in 2022, but he doesn’t project as a high-volume option.
  • WR Parris Campbell is coming off a career-best season, but his durability issues are well-documented. He’s on a low-dollar one-year deal.
  • WR Jamison Crowder knows HC Brian Daboll from their time in Buffalo. Now 30, he doesn’t profile as anything more than a part-time slot – if he makes the team.
  • WR Jalin Hyatt brings exciting downfield speed, but his game lacks polish. Slipping to Round 3, he’s unlikely to make a major Year 1 impact.
  • WR Isaiah Hodgins looks like the top WR following a strong end to 2022. But he’s far from a true No. 1.
• We look for the Giants’ pass volume to tick up a bit.
• Daniel Jones averaged only ~29.5 attempts per game last year. After signing a new extension – and now in Year 2 with Daboll – that number should rise.