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Darren Waller - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Darren Waller
LVR

TE LVR

#2 Tight End

158 Projected Points

ADP: 3.3
Bye: 8
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 28
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 255
40 Time: 4.43

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#2 Tight End

158 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
3.3 94 1109 8 4

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

Med Floor

134.3

DS Projection

158

Consensus

38 other sites
118.5

Low Ceiling

186.4

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Waller turned in his 2nd straight big fantasy season in 2020, posting a 107-1,196-9 line.
  • He led TEs in catches, ranked 2nd in receiving yards and 3rd in receiving TDs.
  • Waller finished 2nd at his position in both PPR and non-PPR points.
  • His PPR point total was the 8th highest by a TE in NFL history; his non-PPR points the 17th most.
  • Waller scored as a top-12 fantasy TE in 11 of 16 games last year and top 5 in 8 games. Both marks ranked 2nd to only Travis Kelce.
  • Waller’s 146 targets last year led the position and were the 11th most for a TE in NFL history.
  • He was also super efficient, ranking 9th in yards per target and 3rd in yards per route run among 35 TEs with 40+ targets. He ranked 2nd in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades.
  • That all followed a breakout 2019 season that saw Waller post a 90-1,145-3 line. He finished 2nd among TEs in PPR points and 4th in non-PPR that year.
  • In 2019, Waller ranked 4th in yards per target, 4th in yards per route run and 5th in PFF receiving grade among 37 TEs with 40+ targets.
  • He turns just 29 in September, so there’s no reason to worry about an age-related decline this season.
  • He returns to the same offense (HC Jon Gruden) with the same QB (Derek Carr).
  • The Raiders lost WR Nelson Agholor, who led the WRs and ranked 2nd on the team with 82 targets last year, in free agency.
  • They added WR John Brown and return WRs Henry Ruggs, Hunter Renfrow and Bryan Edwards. But Waller remains the heavy favorite to lead the team in targets in 2021.
  • He saw 117 targets on a 22.4% share in 2019 and 146 targets on a 26.5% share in 2020. Expect him to settle somewhere between those marks this season.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Waller has been awesome the past 2 seasons, ranking 2nd among TEs in PPR points both years (2nd and 4th in non-PPR). He turns just 29 in September and returns to the same offense with the same QB this season.

So Waller is 1 of the safer picks in fantasy football. The only problem is that he’ll be much more expensive in fantasy drafts this summer. We like him in the 3rd round of PPR and non-PPR drafts -- and the 2nd round of TE-premium drafts like the FFPC.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Raiders TE Darren Waller (knee) is active for today’s game against the Patriots. He only got in a limited practice on Friday, but we haven’t heard anything about him being limited today. Waller remains a strong target bet.

View all Darren Waller Shark Bites »

Raiders TE Darren Waller (knee) is listed as questionable for this weekend’s game against the Patriots. He only got in a limited practice on Friday, but we've heard nothing to suggest that he's in danger of missing this one. Keep Waller penciled into fantasy lineups for now, and check back on Sunday at noon ET to make sure he’s active.

View all Darren Waller Shark Bites »

Raiders TE Darren Waller (knee) did not practice on Wednesday. Like with RB Josh Jacobs, we're guessing that this is just a day off for Waller after a busy outing on Monday night. We'll update his status again tomorrow.

View all Darren Waller Shark Bites »

Raiders TE Darren Waller underwent thumb surgery on Monday, HC Jay Gruden said. We don't have a recovery timeline, but this shouldn't impact Waller's 2020. The 2019 breakout finished 2nd among TEs in PPR points and 4th in non-PPR.

View all Darren Waller Shark Bites »

Raiders TE Darren Waller (foot) isn’t listed on the final Week 7 injury report. He put in a full practice on Friday after being limited on Thursday. Waller remains a locked-in TE1, especially with WR Tyrell Williams out.

View all Darren Waller Shark Bites »

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