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Darren Waller - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Darren Waller
LVR

TE LVR

#2 Tight End

158 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 8
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 29
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 255
40 Time: 4.43

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Low Floor

5

DS Projection

8.4

Consensus

38 other sites
9

Med Ceiling

12.3

Rest of
Season

Week 19 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5 60.1 0.4 8.4
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 12
He left Thursday’s game after a 21-yard catch in the 2nd quarter because of a strained knee. He caught 2 of 5 targets for 33 yards. There really wasn’t a TE presence in the Raiders’ offense after that. TE Foster Moreau, starting in a 2-TE set, was targeted 5 times, but made only 1 catch for 3 yards. TE Daniel Helm didn’t catch the only pass thrown at him this season.
It’s not clear whether he will be able to play against Washington. HC Rich Bisaccia said Waller is “week-to-week.” A 1,000-yard receiver in both 2019 and ’20, he also adds a downfield presence in the passing game. Moreau is a red-zone threat. 3 of his 12 catches this season have been TDs.
Week 11
In a game the Raiders trailed throughout, it was no surprise to see Waller lead the team in all receiving categories. But the entire passing attack was focused on him while no other receiver had more than 30 yards. Waller accounted for more than half of Derek Carr’s passing yardage. In a blowout loss like this, there usually would’ve been more garbage-time production to go around, but the Bengals were able to shorten the game significantly by running the ball, and Las Vegas ran just 47 plays in the game.

Waller hasn’t been the producer most had hoped for when spending a high pick to acquire him on draft day, but he’s mostly been a high-floor option in the majority of weeks. He’ll continue to produce in a similar manner that’s seen him post between 45 and 65 yards in 5 of his last 7 games. Although it’s possible he goes on a hot streak to end the season, he’s only exceeded 8 targets twice all year, so his baseline seems to have been established. And he’s only scored once since Week 1, so TDs should remain hit-or-miss in that area as well.
Week 10
The only positive note on the night for Waller was that he finished 2nd on the team with 7 targets (20% target share). The Raiders were unable to sustain drives and really didn’t have much success at all offensively on Sunday Night Football against the Chiefs. Waller did have a TD negated by a holding call. The Chiefs had a good game plan for Waller, and he was held quiet throughout the game. Waller finished with 4 catches for 24 yards.
The game against the Chiefs was Waller’s worst on the season in terms of yardage, targets and yards. However, he is too talented to be held down for long. Waller is our TE3 this week against the Bengals. The Bengals secondary has given up TDs to opposing TEs in back-to-back weeks. The next 3 games on the schedule for the Raiders are CIN, @DAL and WSH. Waller is still an elite talent that is a top option at the TE position. We have Waller ranked as our overall TE2 the rest of the way.
Week 9
Waller caught 7 balls for 92 yards in the Week 9 loss to the Giants. He led all pass catchers with 11 targets in his first game back from the ankle injury that held him out 1 week (add in a bye in Week 8, too). Both of Waller’s missed targets came on attempts into the end zone but the Giants D was up to the challenge. Waller continues to put up premium numbers from the TE position, and he’ll likely be leaned on heavier with the departure of WR Henry Ruggs III. It will be a battle of two of the best at his position on Sunday night as TE Travis Kelce and the Chiefs come to town. The Chiefs D had allowed 6 TDs to TEs the previous 5 weeks prior to shutting down an undermanned Packers corps.
Week 6
Waller caught all 5 of his targets for 59 yards in Las Vegas' Week 6 win over the Broncos.
Waller continues to be the focal point for opposing defenses, especially once he had 19 targets in the opener.
Waller should get at least 20% of the targets each week from Derek Carr — and we like his chances of having a huge game against the Eagles in Week 7.
Waller is an every week top 5 TE play.
Week 5
Waller caught 4 of his 8 targets on Sunday for 45 yards. While his volume has dropped off from his 19 targets in Week 1, his 7-8 targets each week since is still nice volume. This was also the first time Waller didn't get to 50 receiving yards.

Going forward, there is little reason to doubt Waller. He is leading the TE position in targets and is 9th among all pass catchers. While his QB may buoy throughout the season, Waller should remain rock solid.
Week 4
Waller caught 4 of 7 targets for 50 yards and 1 TD in the Raiders' Week 4 loss to the Chargers.
Waller was mostly quiet in this one with just 4 catches but had a highlight reel TD where he jumped over a defender and caught it high in the air.
Waller is an every week top 3 TE play, including Week 5 against the Bears.
Week 3
Since Waller’s insane, 19-target Week 1, he’s posted games with 7 and 7 targets. There’s no force-feeding Waller anymore, especially as defenses look to take him away. The Raiders also saw guys like Bryan Edwards (3-89), Henry Ruggs (4-78) and Hunter Renfrow (5-77-1) step up. Derek Carr’s strong play at least bodes well for Waller’s efficiency going forward. The duo hooked up 5 times (on 7 targets) for 54 yards. Vegas’ 3 red zone TDs went to Renfrow, Peyton Barber and FB Alec Ingold, though. All that to say: Waller remains an elite TE1, partly because of the position’s lack of depth. Waller ranks as the overall TE3 through 3 games.
Week 2
After seeing 19 targets in the season opener, Waller was far less busy against the Steelers, though he tied for the team lead with 7 targets. He upped his yards per catch from 10.5 to 13, as the Steelers’ pressure was quite different from the heavy blitzing that the Ravens presented the Raiders with in the opener. Although Las Vegas moved the ball well for the entire game, they usually broke down in the red zone, so there weren’t TD opportunities from near the goal line.

Not only is Waller going to be the primary TE for the Raiders, but he’ll likely continue to be the alpha receiver on the team, which should give him a weekly target floor that can only be rivaled by Travis Kelce. That said, with the Raiders already seeing improvement from both Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards, it’s possible that the coaching staff begins to share the targets more than they’ve done in the past, and if they do, it could impact some of the crazy ceiling that Waller has shown.
Week 1
Waller made his case on Monday night to be the TE 1 in fantasy football. He saw an absurd 19 targets. He caught 10 of those targets for 105 yards and a TD. Going forward, there is little reason to doubt Waller, who was a highly coveted player in draft season. The emerging Raiders WRs should help take some focus away from Waller and make things easier on the TE. QB Derek Carr made the TE a priority in Week 1. A season ago, Waller had 6 games with double-digit targets including a 16 and 17 target game. There is little reason to think we don't see a similar game log come season's end with double digit targets becoming the new norm if everything breaks right.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Waller turned in his 2nd straight big fantasy season in 2020, posting a 107-1,196-9 line.
  • He led TEs in catches, ranked 2nd in receiving yards and 3rd in receiving TDs.
  • Waller finished 2nd at his position in both PPR and non-PPR points.
  • His PPR point total was the 8th highest by a TE in NFL history; his non-PPR points the 17th most.
  • Waller scored as a top-12 fantasy TE in 11 of 16 games last year and top 5 in 8 games. Both marks ranked 2nd to only Travis Kelce.
  • Waller’s 146 targets last year led the position and were the 11th most for a TE in NFL history.
  • He was also super efficient, ranking 9th in yards per target and 3rd in yards per route run among 35 TEs with 40+ targets. He ranked 2nd in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades.
  • That all followed a breakout 2019 season that saw Waller post a 90-1,145-3 line. He finished 2nd among TEs in PPR points and 4th in non-PPR that year.
  • In 2019, Waller ranked 4th in yards per target, 4th in yards per route run and 5th in PFF receiving grade among 37 TEs with 40+ targets.
  • He turns just 29 in September, so there’s no reason to worry about an age-related decline this season.
  • He returns to the same offense (HC Jon Gruden) with the same QB (Derek Carr).
  • The Raiders lost WR Nelson Agholor, who led the WRs and ranked 2nd on the team with 82 targets last year, in free agency.
  • They added WR John Brown and return WRs Henry Ruggs, Hunter Renfrow and Bryan Edwards. But Waller remains the heavy favorite to lead the team in targets in 2021.
  • He saw 117 targets on a 22.4% share in 2019 and 146 targets on a 26.5% share in 2020. Expect him to settle somewhere between those marks this season.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Waller has been awesome the past 2 seasons, ranking 2nd among TEs in PPR points both years (2nd and 4th in non-PPR). He turns just 29 in September and returns to the same offense with the same QB this season.

So Waller is 1 of the safer picks in fantasy football. The only problem is that he’ll be much more expensive in fantasy drafts this summer. We like him in the 3rd round of PPR and non-PPR drafts -- and the 2nd round of TE-premium drafts like the FFPC.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Raiders TE Darren Waller (knee) is active for tonight’s game vs. the Chargers. It’ll be his first action since Week 12, adding risk to Waller’s fantasy profile. But there’s plenty of upside in the matchup vs. the #28 TE defense.

View all Darren Waller Shark Bites »

The Raiders expect TE Darren Waller (knee) to play in tonight's game against the Chargers, ESPN reports. He's officially questionable but should be available for fantasy football lineups.

View all Darren Waller Shark Bites »

Raiders TE Darren Waller (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday night’s game vs. the Chargers. He got in 3 limited practices this week. Interim HC Rich Bisaccia said Monday that Waller was expected back for this must-win game, and he seems to still be on track.

View all Darren Waller Shark Bites »

Raiders TE Darren Waller (knee, back) was limited in Wednesday's practice. Interim HC Rich Bisaccia said Monday that Waller is expected back for Sunday night's game vs. the Chargers, but we'll keep an eye on his progress over the next few days.

View all Darren Waller Shark Bites »

Raiders interim HC Rich Bisaccia said Monday that TE Darren Waller is expected back for Sunday night's game vs. the Chargers. We haven't seen Waller since he suffered knee and back injuries in Week 12. He was placed on the COVID list on Wednesday and remains there as of Monday night. We'll see when Waller is cleared and then what he does in practice this week.

View all Darren Waller Shark Bites »

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