Bottom Line

Even if you believe Bryce Young will hit right away, it’s tough to like Chark as anything more than a late-round pick.

He has just one season of strong target-earning and production among five in the NFL.

And this Carolina team seems to feature more target competition than last year’s Lions.

What We Learned Last Year

• It’s a big ask to hope Chark can make it through a full NFL season. He has averaged just 10.8 games through five years, missing three or more games in four of those.
• Chark’s lone season in Detroit found him averaging 16.7 yards per catch, the second-best number of his career, trailing only his seven-catch 2021.
• His 2.7 receptions per game marked a dip from his most-involved Jacksonville campaigns, though. Chark averaged 4.9 with the 2019 Jaguars (his second season) and 4.1 in 2020.
• His 9.7 yards per target for the Lions marked a career high, and Chark enjoyed the second-deepest average depth of target in his career to date.
• Chark’s Pro Football Focus receiving grade and yards per route fell right in line with his previous numbers and didn’t stand out vs. other WRs.

What to Expect in 2023

• Chark got just a one-year, $5 million contract in free agency. That ranked eighth in this year’s market in annual average, behind Robert Woods and Darius Slayton, among others.
• It’s half the size of the one-year deal Chark got from the Lions a year earlier.
• Chark arrives clearly behind new teammate Adam Thielen in the Panthers’ passing plans. Carolina gave Thielen a three-year contract with $14 million in guarantees and an $8.3 million annual average.
• The team also drafted WR Jonathan Mingo in Round 2, as the fifth wideout off the board and first in that round. They clearly have high hopes for him.
• Terrace Marshall leads returning Panthers with 28 receptions in 2022 but has failed to impress through two seasons. He’s the only member of the assumed top four at the position who wasn’t brought in by the new staff.
• Chark figures to compete with Mingo and Marshall for downfield duties opposite Thielen on the outside. Once more of a downfield threat himself, Thielen now profiles as more of a short-to-midrange operator.
• Carolina figures to throw more than last year’s version, which sported the league’s fourth most run-heavy offense. But the Panthers would likely prefer not to go too heavy with the pass in QB Bryce Young’s rookie season. HC Frank Reich’s final three full seasons with the Colts all included pass rates of 55.5% or lower. His only season above that (2018) was the only year Reich had Andrew Luck.