Bottom Line

Volume propelled Lazard to WR3 range in 2022. He wasn’t particularly efficient, though. And at 28 (in December), we may have seen his best.

His connection with QB Aaron Rodgers is the key here. The duo has five years of experience together. The Jets also signed him for $22 million guaranteed, likely at the request of Rodgers.

There’s room for him to see ~100 targets and deliver as a spot-start WR3 behind Garrett Wilson.

What We Learned Last Year

• Lazard’s first season without Davante Adams produced career highs in targets (100), catches (60), and yards (788).
• He was a solid target earner with a 21% target share in his healthy games.
• He missed one game with an ankle injury; one with a shoulder.
• The former UDFA finished as top-24 PPR WR in five games. He maxed out as the WR9, his only top-12 finish.
• Overall, he ranked as the WR34.
• Among 41 WRs with 90+ targets, Lazard ranked 35th in catch rate, 19th in yards per catch, 32nd in yards per route run, and 30th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
• It’s worth noting that Aaron Rodgers’ play fell off last year.
  • His yards per attempt, adjusted completion rate, and QBR each declined.

What to Expect in 2023

• Lazard signed in New York for a surprising sum: 4 years, $44 million ($22 million guaranteed)
• The 28-year-old (in December) spent three seasons in Green Bay with new OC Nathaniel Hackett, so there’s no major learning curve.
  • HC Matt LaFleur called plays, but during Hackett's time as OC in Green Bay, the team ranked 16th, 24th, and 15th in pass attempts.
• Lazard spent five seasons with QB Aaron Rodgers. There’s little doubt Rodgers requested this reunion.
• Rodgers’ play dipped a bit in 2022, but he still profiles as a top-10 QB at 39 years old.
• The Jets return WR Garrett Wilson as a clear target hog. His rookie year turned up a big 25% target share.
• New York added WRs Mecole Hardman and Randall Cobb (another Rodgers bestie) in free agency. They’ll remain role players.