Bottom Line

Hopkins looks like the favorite to lead Tennessee in targets this year. But the low-volume passing offense limits his ceiling. It’s also possible that 2022 first-round WR Treylon Burks outperforms the veteran in Year 2.

Hopkins looks OK if you can get him in mid-to-low WR3 territory. Any earlier than that, though, we’d pass on the vet.

What We Learned Last Year

• After losing the first six weeks to a PED suspension, Hopkins rebounded his reception volume from a 2021 dip. His 7.1 receptions per game beat his nearest teammate (Marquise Brown) by 1.5.
• That followed just 4.2 receptions per game in 2021. Hopkins averaged 7.2 in 2020, his first season with the Cardinals.
• His 11.2 yards per reception tied his career low, from 2019 in Houston. Hopkins also produced his fewest yards per target (7.5) since 2016.
• Although he had to deal with shaky QB play after Kyler Murray’s November ACL tear, Hopkins likely showed some decline in his performance.
  • Despite his average depth of target dipping from 13.1 in 2021 to 10.7 last year, Hopkins’ yards after catch per reception also declined, according to Pro Football Focus.
  • His 2.8 in that category marked the second-lowest average of his career, ahead of only his 2015 number. And that season included a career high 14.6-yard aDOT.
  • Hopkins’ 84.4 passer rating on balls thrown his way (according to PFF) was the third-lowest mark of his career, ahead of only 2016 and 2013 (his rookie season).
  • We can blame at least some of that on QB play. But Hopkins beat that number in two of his four pre-Deshaun Watson Texans seasons. Last year found him well behind teammates Greg Dortch (107.1) and Rondale Moore (101.6) – though well ahead of Marquise Brown (66.4).
  • So that might have just been a QB issue.
  • Hopkins posted his worst PFF receiving grade since 2013. He ranked 36th among 97 WRs with 40+ targets.
• Hopkins ran from the slot more often in 2022 than in his first two Arizona seasons. He spent 27.3% of his pass snaps there, compared with 14.9% and 10.2% the previous two years (according to PFF). That marked the third-highest slot rate of his career.
• That could have been motivated by some loss of speed, team personnel, coach preference, game-specific schemes (especially on just a nine-game sample) or any combo of those factors.

What to Expect in 2023

• Hopkins opens the year as Tennessee’s best bet to lead in targets. He has been a target hog for most of his career. And even his 2021 dip in that category rebounded last year.
• Treylon Burks arrived via Round 1 just last year but saw his rookie year limited by injuries. Even when on the field, he claimed just a 16.1% target share.
• The Titans might throw more after drafting Burks high and then paying up for Hopkins. But expect this to remain a run-heavy offense. All five years under HC Mike Vrabel have seen Tennessee rank 25th or lower in pass attempts. Four of the five had them 30th or lower.
• Although we haven’t seen reports of Hopkins experiencing lingering effects from his injuries of the past two years, our Injury Predictor puts him at “high risk” of missing time this year.
• He has dealt with lower-body issues each of the past three years and needed surgery for a torn MCL at the end of 2021.