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DeAndre Hopkins - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDeAndre Hopkins's Basic Stats

DeAndre Hopkins
ADP: 25.3
Bye: 7
Experience: 11
Age: 31.7
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 212
40 Time: 4.57
Speed Score: 98.10
SPARQx (Rank): 99.90 (36%)
Burst Score (Rank): 118.70 (37%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.33 (40%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.03 (56%)

DeAndre Hopkins's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5 64.2 0.42 8.8
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.2 65.1 0.4 9

DeAndre Hopkins's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#28 Wide Receiver

152 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
25.3 85 1091.4 7.14 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDeAndre Hopkins's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Hopkins looks like the favorite to lead Tennessee in targets this year. But the low-volume passing offense limits his ceiling. It’s also possible that 2022 first-round WR Treylon Burks outperforms the veteran in Year 2.

Hopkins looks OK if you can get him in mid-to-low WR3 territory. Any earlier than that, though, we’d pass on the vet.


What We Learned Last Year
  • After losing the first six weeks to a PED suspension, Hopkins rebounded his reception volume from a 2021 dip. His 7.1 receptions per game beat his nearest teammate (Marquise Brown) by 1.5.
  • That followed just 4.2 receptions per game in 2021. Hopkins averaged 7.2 in 2020, his first season with the Cardinals.
  • His 11.2 yards per reception tied his career low, from 2019 in Houston. Hopkins also produced his fewest yards per target (7.5) since 2016.
  • Although he had to deal with shaky QB play after Kyler Murray’s November ACL tear, Hopkins likely showed some decline in his performance.
    • Despite his average depth of target dipping from 13.1 in 2021 to 10.7 last year, Hopkins’ yards after catch per reception also declined, according to Pro Football Focus.
    • His 2.8 in that category marked the second-lowest average of his career, ahead of only his 2015 number. And that season included a career high 14.6-yard aDOT.
    • Hopkins’ 84.4 passer rating on balls thrown his way (according to PFF) was the third-lowest mark of his career, ahead of only 2016 and 2013 (his rookie season).
    • We can blame at least some of that on QB play. But Hopkins beat that number in two of his four pre-Deshaun Watson Texans seasons. Last year found him well behind teammates Greg Dortch (107.1) and Rondale Moore (101.6) – though well ahead of Marquise Brown (66.4).
    • So that might have just been a QB issue.
    • Hopkins posted his worst PFF receiving grade since 2013. He ranked 36th among 97 WRs with 40+ targets.
  • Hopkins ran from the slot more often in 2022 than in his first two Arizona seasons. He spent 27.3% of his pass snaps there, compared with 14.9% and 10.2% the previous two years (according to PFF). That marked the third-highest slot rate of his career.
  • That could have been motivated by some loss of speed, team personnel, coach preference, game-specific schemes (especially on just a nine-game sample) or any combo of those factors.

What to Expect in 2023
  • Hopkins opens the year as Tennessee’s best bet to lead in targets. He has been a target hog for most of his career. And even his 2021 dip in that category rebounded last year.
  • Treylon Burks arrived via Round 1 just last year but saw his rookie year limited by injuries. Even when on the field, he claimed just a 16.1% target share.
  • The Titans might throw more after drafting Burks high and then paying up for Hopkins. But expect this to remain a run-heavy offense. All five years under HC Mike Vrabel have seen Tennessee rank 25th or lower in pass attempts. Four of the five had them 30th or lower.
  • Although we haven’t seen reports of Hopkins experiencing lingering effects from his injuries of the past two years, our Injury Predictor puts him at “high risk” of missing time this year.
  • He has dealt with lower-body issues each of the past three years and needed surgery for a torn MCL at the end of 2021.

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Will Levis, QB TEN

9:20pm EST 1/22/24

Brian Callahan named Titans HC

The Titans are set to hire Brian Callahan as their new HC, according to multiple sources. It'll be the 39-year-old's first HC gig. Callahan spent the past five seasons as Cincinnati's OC, leading the Bengals to top-13 finishes in total yards and points in 2021 and 2022. Cincinnati sunk to 22nd in yards and 16th in points this past year, due in large part to QB Joe Burrow missing 7.5 games. Callahan was a pass-leaning play caller, with four of his five Bengals offenses ranking top-12 in pass rate, including a trio of top-6 finishes. That means a big shift is coming in Tennessee, where the Titans never finished higher than 25th in pass attempts in six seasons under HC Mike Vrabel. Callahan's arrival is certainly good news for the fantasy upside on QB Will Levis, WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks, and TE Chig Okonkwo.

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The Titans fired HC Mike Vrabel. Tennessee went 41-24 over Vrabel's first four seasons, making the playoffs in 2019, 2020, and 2021. But the Titans won just 13 games total over the last two seasons and ranked bottom-5 in total offense both years. This offense might look a lot different in 2024, with a new coaching staff and potentially no Derrick Henry.

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Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins caught all 7 of his targets for 72 yards in Sunday's loss to the Texans. That beat his nearest teammate by 3 receptions and more than doubled any other Tennessee player in receiving yards. Hopkins caught Will Levis' only 2 completions among 6 pass attempts before the rookie left with an injury. Ryan Tannehill completed 16 of 20 throws in relief, targeting Hopkins with 25% of his attempts. Hopkins' 10.6 yards per catch for the game also marked his third straight outing with less than 11 yards per catch. If Levis can't go in Week 18, Tannehill should help Hopkins' catch-rate outlook but lessen his yardage upside. We'll also see whether the Titans indicate any different plan for player usage in the regular-season finale.

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Titans QB Will Levis (ankle) did not practice on Wednesday. We're not expecting him to play vs. the Seahawks this weekend, which would presumably put QB Ryan Tannehill back at the controls for Tennessee. We're treating that as a wash for WR DeAndre Hopkins and the Titans' other pass-catchers.

View all Will Levis Shark Bites »

Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins caught just two passes for 21 yards in Sunday's OT loss to the Texans. That came despite a team-leading 9 targets that accounted for 34.6% of QB Will Levis' pass attempts and led his nearest teammate by five. It was Hopkins' third straight game with 9+ targets and fifth such game among eight since Levis took over. The WR sports just a 46.3% catch rate over that span, though. He gets a positive matchup with Seattle in Week 16 before a rematch with Houston ... which was also a positive matchup. Hopkins ran more of his routes from the slot Sunday, according to Pro Football Focus, drawing a 36% target route from there but logging just one catch. We'll see if that lack of success alters any Week 16 usage. Hopkins remains a startable fantasy asset but comes with a low floor.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

DeAndre Hopkins, WR TEN
Dynasty MVP 71.9
Position Rank #191 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
274
368
509
Dynasty Write-up
Hopkins predictably saw high volume in 2023 (136 targets). He's still a clear-cut NFL starter, but the 11-year pro will turn 32 in June. The rebuilding Titans might opt to move on from him, a move that would save $8 million, per Over the Cap.
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