DeAndre Hopkins - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Hopkins is suspended for the first 6 games of the season for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy.
• He missed 7 games and most of an 8th last year with hamstring and knee injuries. He also played through a rib injury early in the season.
  • The knee injury – a torn MCL – required surgery in December. Hopkins is expected to be back to 100% for training camp.
• Hopkins missed just 1 game with injury (2017, calf) over his first 8 NFL seasons.
• In his 9 healthy games last year, Hopkins averaged 6.9 targets, 4.4 catches, 56.2 yards and .9 TDs.
  • The catches and yards per game were his fewest since his 2013 rookie campaign.
  • Hopkins earned the 3rd worst Pro Football Focus receiving grade of his career, although it still ranked 16th among 89 qualifying WRs.
• His scoring averages in those 9 healthy games would have ranked 16th among WRs in PPR points and 10th in non-PPR.
• That was propped by his 8 TDs. Hopkins’ 19.0% TD rate last year was a career high and 11 percentage points higher than his average over his first 8 seasons.
• Hopkins’ volume was way down last year compared to his Cardinals debut in 2020.
  • He averaged 10.0 targets per game on a 27.8% target share in 2020.
  • He averaged 6.9 targets on a 21.6% share in his 9 healthy games last year.
    • That 21.6% target share ranked 30th among WRs.
• The Cardinals lost WR Christian Kirk and RB Chase Edmonds in free agency this offseason. Those 2 combined for 26.4% of Arizona’s targets last year.
• The team swung a trade for WR Marquise Brown during the 1st-round of this spring’s draft. Brown is coming off a 146-target, 91-catch season. He played 2 seasons with QB Kyler Murray at Oklahoma.
• RB James Conner, WRs Rondale Moore and A.J. Green and TE Zach Ertz return from last year’s Cardinals squad.
• HC Kliff Kingsbury returns for his 4th season with the Cardinals.
  • Kingsbury has been a pass-leaning play caller, with Arizona ranking 5th, 12th and 4th situation-neutral pass rate over the last 3 years.
• The Cardinals plan to limit WR DeAndre Hopkins' reps in training camp. HC Kliff Kingsbury said. "But, the main thing I don't want him to do is ramp up, make a bunch of plays in training camp, do this, practice really hard and then six weeks he's not doing anything."

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

There’s plenty to dislike about Hopkins heading into 2022. He’s suspended for the first 6 games of the season, is coming off an injury-riddled 2021 campaign that saw him set 8-year lows in catches and yards per game and is facing arguably tougher target competition this season after Arizona swapped Christian Kirk for Marquise Brown.

Hopkins still managed to score as a top-16 WR across fantasy formats last year, though. And he’ll come relatively cheap in drafts this summer.

If you can survive those first 6 weeks without him, Hopkins should produce at least WR2 numbers the rest of the way.