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Desmond Ridder - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDesmond Ridder's Basic Stats

Desmond Ridder
ADP: 20.12
Bye: 11
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 24.0
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 207
40 Time: 4.52
Burst Score (Rank): 126.50 (95%)

Desmond Ridder's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
185.8 1.1 0.4 15.5 13
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
162.3 1 0.5 19.4 12.3

Desmond Ridder's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#33 Quarterback

197.4 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
20.12 231.9/371 2597 15.3 8.5 62 310 4.4

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDesmond Ridder's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Ridder’s biggest fantasy plus coming out of college was his rushing. We didn’t see enough of that in his limited rookie-year opportunities to count on significant ground upside. And his run-heavy offense with iffy WRs (beyond Drake London) makes for an unexciting passing environment.

All told, we’re not excited about Ridder’s 2023 fantasy outlook and aren’t worried about missing out on something big even if he plays well as a sophomore. Ridder’s no more than a QB3 for formats where such a player makes sense.

What We Learned Last Year
  • The third-round pick sat out most of his rookie season behind Marcus Mariota, before starting the final four games after Atlanta’s bye. He didn’t do much to impress.
  • Ridder started with a 13-of-26 passing line for 97 yards in a Week 15 loss to the Saints.
  • He completed a much stronger 67.4% of his throws over the remaining three games, averaging 6.9 yards per attempt.
  • Ridder finished the year with 63.5% completions, 6.2 yards per attempt, 2 TDs (1.7% TD rate), and 0 INTs.
  • He added just 64 yards on 16 carries, disappointing for a guy who averaged 43.6 rushing yards per game or his college career, even with sack yardage subtracted.
    • Ridder did a lot more designed running in college: at least 40 such attempts in each of his four seasons, according to Pro Football Focus.
  • Ridder ranked 32nd in PFF passing grade among all 50 QBs who attempted passes over the final four weeks last season. He ranked 22nd in passer rating and 45th in adjusted completion percentage.
  • HC Arthur Smith said he thought Ridder got better over his starting span, specifically citing the rookie’s performance on third and fourth downs.
  • It’s worth noting that Atlanta lost TE Kyle Pitts to injury before Ridder stepped in. That left little besides rookie WR Drake London. WR Olamide Zaccheaus finished second on the team in targets (61), receptions (40), and yards (533) for the season. Besides London and Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson was the only other Falcon to reach 20 catches.
What to Expect in 2023
  • The Falcons skipped drafting a QB, but they did sign Taylor Heinicke for $14 million over two years, with $6.32 million guaranteed. That’s backup money in today’s NFL. But the potential length and total money included seems to position Heinicke as more of an insurance option than straight backup. Only Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo got more total money on their free-agent deals this offseason.
  • Ridder will get Pitts back to join London, who ranked second among all WRs in target share over Ridder’s four starting weeks.
  • There’s still not much else to like among the pass catchers. Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller look like the favorites for the second and third WR spots. Hollins had a nice 2022 – 57-690-4 receiving line – but caught 56 total passes across five seasons before that. Miller has just 74 catches through four seasons.
  • Atlanta traded for TE Jonnu Smith, who mustered just 28 and 27 receptions in two New England seasons after signing for big money.
  • Ridder should get a better set of RB receivers than most teams can boast. Bijan Robinson caught 60 balls at 13.4 yards per catch across his college career and might be able to survive as an NFL slot receiver. Cordarrelle Patterson saw his receiving fall off last year but posted a 52-548-5 line in his first Atlanta season. Even Tyler Allgeier caught 16 of his 17 targets as a rookie, averaging a nice 8.7 yards per catch.
  • The scheme might lower the volume ceiling for everyone. Last year’s Atlanta offense was the league’s second most run-heavy, running on 55.3% of plays. That said, Arthur Smith’s 2021 Falcons offense went 60.9% pass. That team even ranked 14th in the league in pass rate in neutral situations.
  • Last year’s Falcons climbed from a clear 32nd in neutral pass rate through Mariota’s 13 starts to 24th over Ridder’s four games. And that came with no Pitts involved.
  • We’re still betting on this year’s Falcons ranking among the league’s more run-heavy offenses. But it’s quite possible they pass more than expected.

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Desmond Ridder, QB ATL

4:43pm EDT 9/17/23

Desmond Ridder rushes his way to fantasy relevance

Falcons QB Desmond Ridder completed 19 passes on 32 attempts for 237 passing yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in Sunday’s win vs. the Packers. He also ran the ball 10 times for 39 rushing yards with 1 TD on the ground. The second-year signal-caller's fantasy day looks better in the box score than his actual play reflects. Ridder struggled for much of the first half to push the ball downfield. To his credit, both he and the Falcons’ offense fared much better to end the game. 4 of their final 5 drives (excluding kneeling the ball to end the game) extended at least 44 yards and resulted in a scoring play. Ridder will look to continue progressing in Week 3 on the road against the Lions.

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Falcons QB Desmond Ridder has teammates fired up about his leadership heading into his second season. “When he talks, you listen,” TE Jonnu Smith told The Athletic. “Having leadership qualities is the most important trait you should have as a quarterback. He has that. He’s been coming in here and working his butt off. I have nothing but great things to say about Desmond.” Those words come from a seventh-year veteran heading into his age-28 season and in his first offseason with the Falcons. Others had similar praise for Ridder, who has not only led on-field work but reportedly been organizing events with teammates away from the field. All of this could mean nothing for his in-game performance. And Taylor Heinicke stands in wait as Ridder insurance. But all signs point to the Falcons hoping that Ridder will be their guy for at least the near future. He’s a fine late shot to take in superflex drafts. Check out his spot in our superflex rankings.

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When asked about the team's QB situation on Tuesday, Falcons HC Arthur Smith shared the plan is for Desmond Ridder to open training camp as the starter. Smith also spoke about QB Taylor Heinicke, the former Commanders signal-caller who inked a two-year deal with the Falcons in free agency. "The chemistry in the quarterback room is important, as we expect Desmond to take the next step," said Smith. "But we also have [Heinicke] who can go in and win you football games and be ready to play." Reading between the lines a little bit, it sounds as though this could be a camp battle in which Heinicke would have an opportunity to win the job if Ridder slips. That said, we can't put too much stock into vague statements like this in late March. We'll surely have our attention on this situation should it evolve into something more into the summer. If nothing else, dynasty managers could consider throwing out some feelers to acquire Heinicke on the cheap in superflex leagues, but that's about all there is here.

View all Desmond Ridder Shark Bites »

New Falcons QB Taylor Heinicke told reporters on Thursday that his goal is to be "the best backup I can be to Desmond [Ridder]." "They drafted (Ridder) high for a reason," Heinicke added. So that puts to bed any notion of a true QB competition in Atlanta. Of course, there's a chance that Ridder falters and gives way to Heinicke at some point in 2023. But Ridder is the Falcons QB to consider late in fantasy football drafts.

View all Taylor Heinicke Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Desmond Ridder, QB ATL
Dynasty MVP 185.8
Position Rank #34 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
556
941
1,840
Dynasty Write-up
Ridder, a Round 3 pick, made four appearances as a rookie. But he wasn’t a fantasy factor for the run-heavy Falcons. He'll start in 2023. Beyond that, it’s uncertain. Atlanta said no thanks to a QB in the draft, although the addition of RB Bijan Robinson ensures that pass volume stays low.
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