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Brian Thomas Jr. Dynasty Value

By Jared Smola | Updated on Fri, 05 Apr 2024 . 10:37 AM EDT

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Thomas has all the tools to make an immediate impact as a deep-ball weapon and spike-week fantasy play.

• Size
• Speed
• Ball Skills

But Thomas' dynasty value will ultimately hinge on whether he can develop into a complete receiver and command enough volume to be a consistent fantasy producer.

Is that a bet dynasty managers should be willing to make? Let's look for the answer ...

Brian Thomas Jr. Dynasty Values

To see Brian Thomas Jr.'s value for your exact league setup, check out our Dynasty Draft War Room.

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Brian Thomas Jr. Draft Profile

Brian Thomas Jr. Combine Results

Percentiles vs Combine wide receivers since 1999, per MockDraftable

Brian Thomas Jr. College Stats

Multi-Sport High School Star

Thomas was a standout football and basketball player at Walker High School just outside of Baton Rouge. He racked up 1,789 receiving yards and 24 TDs over his final two seasons and was tabbed a four-star prospect.

Thomas opted to stay in-state at LSU over 15+ other scholarship offers, including Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and Miami.

Thomas Finds Field as Freshman

Thomas made nine starts as a true freshman, finishing second among LSU WRs in snaps and third in routes – notably ahead of junior Trey Palmer and fellow freshman Malik Nabers.

His 28 receptions tied Nabers for fifth on the team. Thomas also ranked fifth in receiving yards, behind Nabers but ahead of Palmer.

Underwhelming Sophomore Season

Palmer departed for Nebraska in 2022, but it was Nabers who broke out as LSU’s top WR (72-1,017-3).

Thomas sat just the No. 4 WR in playing time. He ranked fourth on the team in catches and fifth in receiving yards.

His 5 TDs ranked second and made up 21.7% of the team total. But Thomas underwhelmed in Pro Football Focus grade and yards per route, falling outside the top 250 WRs in both metrics.

Junior Breakout

Thomas was a big part of a dominant LSU passing game this past year. The Tigers ranked third in passing yards and second in TDs, and QB Jayden Daniels won the Heisman.

Nabers remained the clear No. 1 WR, tallying 21 more catches and 392 more yards than Thomas. But Thomas led LSU – and the entire country – with 17 receiving TDs.

His market shares:

• 23.8% of the receptions
• 26.7% of the receiving yards
• 38.6% of the receiving TDs

Dominant on Deep Balls

Thomas was used primarily as a deep threat. He registered a 13.9-yard average target depth, with 25.3% of his total targets coming 20+ yards downfield.

Thomas was dominant on those deep balls, hauling in 15 of 22 targets for 670 yards and 12 TDs. The catches, yards, and TDs were all top-3 marks in the nation. His six grabs of 40+ yards ranked sixth. Thomas was one of 24 WRs to score a 99.9 PFF receiving grade on targets of 20+ yards.

Not as Good on Shorter Stuff

He wasn’t nearly as impressive on short and intermediate routes, though. In fact, Thomas averaged just 1.18 yards per route on targets of less than 20 yards. Nabers, by comparison, averaged 2.34 yards per route on those targets.

Thomas’ 2.61 yards per route on the season trailed Nabers’ 3.64 but ranked 36th among 286 qualifying WRs in the country.

He ranked just 92nd in PFF receiving grade.

Brian Thomas Jr. Highlights

Games watched: Arkansas, Ole Miss, Alabama, Florida, Texas A&M

Thomas Loaded with Deep-Ball Tools

As his college numbers suggest, Thomas is at his best going deep.

He has all the tools to win downfield.

Speed

Thomas blazed a 4.33-second 40 time at the Combine and plays at least that fast. He regularly blew by college DBs with long-striding speed.

Can Beat Press

Thomas has the size, athleticism, and footwork to defeat press coverage. And, when he does so, he has the burst to create instant separation.

On this rep, he uses a quick jab to elude a defender off the snap and then blows by him within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.

Ball Tracking

Thomas does a nice job adjusting to balls mid-flight and flashes impressive concentration and hands to make grabs away from his frame.

Ball skills

I was most impressed by Thomas’ ball skills. When he doesn’t create big separation downfield, he has the athleticism to win by going over defenders and high-pointing the ball.

On this TD below, Thomas tracks the deep ball, slows his pace, and flashes 'late hands' to high-point the ball over the defender. Then he completes the catch to the ground despite contact. He's clearly not just a speedy, finesse receiver.

Here's another instance of Thomas fighting through contact for a score.

Per PFF, Thomas converted seven of 13 contested-catch opportunities last year.

Thomas' Ability After Catch is Mixed

Thomas’ speed and physicality are weapons after the catch. He can run away from defenders. And when he gets his 209-pound frame moving downhill, he builds enough momentum to bust through tackles.

What you won’t see Thomas do very often is make defenders miss. He’s more impressive in a straight line than he is laterally.

Thomas averaged 5.7 yards after catch per reception last year, which ranked 102nd among 286 qualifying WRs.

Route Running a Work in Progress

Thomas wasn’t asked to run a wide variety of routes at LSU. In fact, 56% of his targets last year came on ‘hitch’ or ‘go’ routes, according to PFF.

So he’s an inexperienced route runner at this point. But Thomas clearly has the size and speed to develop his separation skills.

Dynasty Value Conclusion

Thomas is NFL-ready as a deep-ball weapon. He has the size, speed, and ball skills to make an immediate impact stretching the field. He'll at least be a valuable best ball asset as a rookie.

Thomas doesn't yet have the game to be a target hog or even an NFL team's lead WR. He wasn't very efficient on short and intermediate routes at LSU and is an inexperienced route runner.

What's the Dynasty Upside?

But Thomas, an early declare who will still be 21 when his rookie season kicks off, certainly has the raw ability to develop into a more complete WR. And if he does, he'll have a shot at WR1-level fantasy production.

Think something on the Nico Collins-Tee Higgins-George Pickens spectrum for upside.

Check his current dynasty ADP.

Player Team Fit: Indianapolis Colts

We didn't see much of QB Anthony Richardson last year, but we know he has a terrific arm. And he was excellent throwing deep in his final college season, earning a 93.1 deep-passing grade from PFF. That ranked 22nd among 193 qualifiers.

That skill set would maximize Thomas' downfield ability.

Plus, with Michael Pittman in town, Thomas wouldn't face the pressure of No. 1 WR duties right away.

He could excel as the secondary option in the passing game in the short term, while potentially threatening Pittman for the title of long-term No. 1 WR.

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