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Brian Thomas Jr. - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsBrian Thomas Jr.'s Basic Stats

Brian Thomas Jr.
ADP: N/A
Bye: 12
Experience: 0
Age: 21.9
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 209
40 Time: 4.33

Burst Score (Rank): 128.50 (83%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.44 (98%)

Brian Thomas Jr.'s Weekly Outlook

Week 5 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.1 58 0.35 8.3
Weekly Writeup
Thomas has garnered 9 targets in two straight games. The continued struggles of QB Trevor Lawrence keep him from being an attractive option, but the talented rookie gets an upside matchup with the Colts this week. Indy ranks 18th in pass-defense DVOA so far, with one outside CB (Jaylon Jones) sitting 122nd in PFF coverage grade and the other spot manned by fill-in Samuel Womack III. (JuJu Brents is out.) That’s enough to make Thomas a WR3 option on this four-team bye week.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.1 59 0.3 8

Brian Thomas Jr.'s 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#33 Wide Receiver

199.6 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 68 971 5.72 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsBrian Thomas Jr.'s Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

When Calvin Ridley was not re-signed, the Jaguars were pigeonholed into addressing WR in the draft. Thomas was the ideal scenario with his red-zone upside.

Thomas led the FBS in receiving TDs last year and is a 99th-percentile athlete with great size.

He’s unlikely to get a ton of targets as a rookie, though, so he’s unlikely to be an attractive weekly fantasy starter. He is ultimately more of a WR4 and might be overdrafted based on his draft capital and athletic profile.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Thomas was selected by the Jaguars with the 23rd overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.
  • He played three years at LSU.
  • Thomas posted career-best numbers in 2023:
    • 86 targets
    • 68 catches
    • 1,177 receiving yards
    • 17 receiving TDs
  • Thomas’ breakout age at 20.9 is 38th percentile among drafted WRs.
  • He was near the top of the leaderboards in the SEC:
    • Fourth in yards per game (90.5)
    • Sixth in receptions per game (5.2)
    • Seventh in yards per catch (17.31)
    • First in receiving TDs
  • Thomas was named second-team All-SEC.
  • He measured in at 6 '3, 209 pounds at the NFL Combine and registered an outstanding 4.33 40-yard time. He earned a 9.84 Relative Athletic Score.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Thomas will enter his first season with the Jaguars under HC Doug Pederson and OC Press Taylor.
  • Jacksonville lost WR Calvin Ridley in free agency but added free-agent Gabriel Davis. He, Thomas, and Christian Kirk will be the top three WRs. We’ll see who stays on the field in two-WR sets.
  • The Jaguars are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
  • They sit 17th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +5000 on most sportsbooks, second-highest in the division.
  • Thomas enters his first season at 21 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Thomas’ profile will produce at 77-80% of his peak value at age-21.

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Brian Thomas Jr., WR JAC

8:39pm EDT 10/6/24

Brian Thomas Jr. Powers Big Game with Long TD

Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. snagged an 85-yard catch-and-run TD in Sunday's victory over the Colts. That play drove his 5-122-1 line, the first 100-yard game of his career. WR Christian Kirk drew just 4 targets but caught them all for 88 yards. WR Gabe Davis also threw 4 targets, catching three for 38 yards and losing a fumble.

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Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence labored through a Week 2 loss vs. Cleveland. Lawrence posted 220 scoreless yards, while the Jags offense totaled one TD. At one point, the Jags went 11 straight possessions (starting in Week 1) without a score.

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Jacksonville's preseason opener found WR Christian Kirk excluded from two-WR sets. The Jaguars opened Saturday's game against the Chiefs with Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. as the WRs in "12" personnel (two TEs) for the first two plays. Kirk entered for three-WR sets and ultimately played seven snaps vs. nine for Thomas and Davis. (QB Trevor Lawrence played nine as well.) Thomas and Davis ran five routes to Kirk's four. Davis drew the only two WR targets before the first team left.

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Jaguars first-round WR Brian Thomas Jr. has reportedly struggled a bit at the start of training camp. "Maybe he's just on a rookie learning curve, but the Jaguars' first-round wide receiver has yet to make an impact through three days of team drills," writes Zach Goodall of Jaguars Wire.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Brian Thomas Jr., WR JAC
Dynasty MVP 48.3
Position Rank #14 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
414
710
1,404
Dynasty Write-up
Playing alongside QB Jayden Daniels and WR Malik Nabers, Thomas enjoyed a third-year breakout. He led LSU in TD catches in 2023 (17) and nearly matched Nabers in yards per catch (17.3 to 17.6). Thomas is a long strider at 6’2, 209 pounds and tracks the ball like a veteran. He also brings desirable NFL athleticism (4.34 forty, 38.5-inch vertical). Jacksonville gives him a shot to eventually develop into the No. 1 target for Trevor Lawrence.
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