Show Navigation
Show Menu
Player Profile

Dalton Kincaid Injury History & Updates

Basic StatsDalton Kincaid's Basic Stats

Dalton Kincaid
ADP: 4.3
Bye: 12
Experience: 1
Age: 24.6
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 240
40 Time: 4.68

Injury PredictorDalton Kincaid's Injury Guide

Medium Risk

Chance of Injury in 2024

52%

% chance misses at least 2 quarters

Chance of Injury per Game

4.2%

1- 17√1-% Inj/Season

Projected Games Missed 2024

1.90

Durability

5.00

Ability to produce despire relatively minor injuries. 5 being most durable

Injury analysis powered by Draft Sharks Injury Guide, formerly SIP Logo

Injury History

Date League Injury Details
Nov 26, 2022 Non-NFL Back Tailbone Fracture Kincaid was landed on awkwardly vs. Colorado and missed the Rose Bowl. Surgery wasn't required, but he also sat out the Senior Bowl and the NFL Combine.
Oct 27, 2022 Non-NFL Shoulder A/C Joint Sprain Kincaid landed hard on his right shoulder upon scoring a TD. He sat out one game.
Oct 5, 2023 NFL Head Cranial Concussion Grade 1 Kincaid entered NFL concussion protocol following Week 5. He missed one game.

Basic StatsDalton Kincaid's Preseason Player Analysis

View TE Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Kincaid earned Round 1 draft capital last year. He soon made an impact as a spot-start TE1, ultimately finishing 13th in PPR points per game.

2024 turns up boosted target opportunity with both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis off the roster. Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel joined over the offseason, but expect a more evenly distributed passing game.

Ultimately, Kincaid is fairly priced as the TE5.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Following a slow start, Kincaid became one of only four rookie TEs in league history to tally 70+ catches.
  • He did so in 16 games, missing only Week 6 (concussion).
  • Kincaid’s production took off in Week 7, when Dawson Knox battled a wrist injury that ultimately cost him the next five games.
    • Without Knox, Kincaid averaged 7.4 targets, 6.2 catches, 56.2 yards, and .4 TDs.
    • Kincaid finished as a top-13 fantasy TE in all five games.
    • In 14 games with Knox, Kincaid averaged 4.7 targets, 3.6 catches, 35.4 yards, and .07 TDs.
    • Kincaid finished as a top-13 TE three times in 11 regular season games alongside Knox.
  • Another dynamic was at play, as Buffalo swapped out OC Ken Dorsey for Joe Brady ahead of Week 11. Brady orchestrated a much more run-heavy approach.
    • Still, Kincaid’s targets per game essentially stayed the same under both OCs (5.6 to 5.8).
    • Kincaid’s target share under Dorsey: 16.9%
    • Kincaid’s target share under Brady: 18.0%
  • Overall, among 26 TEs with 50+ targets, Kincaid ranked third in catch rate, 23rd in yards per catch, 16th in yards after catch per reception, and T-12th in yards per route run.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Joe Brady takes over as the full-time OC.
    • As noted above, Kincaid’s usage didn’t take a hit after the in-season coordinator change.
  • The Bills traded Stefon Diggs and let Gabe Davis walk in free agency.
    • That removes 241 targets from the 2023 offense.
  • Buffalo’s main WR additions include Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman.
    • Samuel, 28, spent the past three years in Washington. After an injury-ruined 2021, he filled a short-range slot role from 2022-2023.
    • His contract includes $15 million guaranteed, suggesting the Bills will feature him.
  • Coleman arrived as an early Round 2 pick.
    • While he projects more on the outside, Coleman’s development will play a key role in Kincaid final target count.
    • Coleman projects as a potential red zone factor at 6’3, 213 pounds. He was a strong TD producer in college
  • Kincaid saw just a 14.5% red zone target share last year -- 3rd on the Bills and just ahead of Dawson Knox (12.9%).

Recent Injury Bites View All Shark Bites »

Dawson Knox, TE BUF

7:47pm EST 12/9/23

Dawson Knox activated from IR

Bills TE Dawson Knox (wrist) has been activated to the 53-man roster. That puts him in line to play vs. the Chiefs on Sunday for the first time since Week 7. Knox would be a desperation fantasy start, but his return dings TE Dalton Kincaid's target projection. It also takes WR Khalil Shakir out of the picture even in deep fantasy leagues.

View all Dawson Knox Shark Bites »

Bills TE Dawson Knox (wrist) is listed as questionable for this weekend’s game vs. the Chiefs. He was a full-go in practice all week, and HC Sean McDermott said Friday that Knox "has a good chance" to play Sunday. We currently have him projected in, which dings TE Dalton Kincaid’s fantasy outlook. The rookie averaged 7.4 targets over the last five games without Knox vs. 4.5 with Knox over his first six outings.

View all Dawson Knox Shark Bites »

Bills TE Dawson Knox (wrist) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. That puts him in line to return for this weekend's game vs. the Chiefs. Knox isn't a bankable fantasy play, but his return could certainly impact TE Dalton Kincaid. The rookie averaged 7.4 targets over the last five games without Knox vs. 4.5 with Knox over his first six outings. It's tough to imagine Kincaid's usage returning to those previous levels considering how good he's been lately. But Knox's return adds some downside risk to Kincaid's Week 14 fantasy profile.

View all Dawson Knox Shark Bites »

Bills TE Dawson Knox (wrist) has been designated to return from IR and will practice on Wednesday. HC Sean McDermott when asked whether Knox will play vs. the Chiefs this weekend only said, "We'll take it one day at a time." We'll keep tabs on Knox's status for that one. He's not a fantasy option, but his return would put a dent in TE Dalton Kincaid's fantasy value. Kincaid averaged 7.4 targets over the last five games without Knox vs. 4.5 with Knox over his first six outings.

View all Dawson Knox Shark Bites »

Bills TE Dawson Knox (wrist) is eligible to come off IR this week, but HC Sean McDermott said Monday that Knox isn't ready yet. Buffalo has a Week 13 bye, so we'll see if Knox is cleared to play in Week 14. His continued absence is excellent news for TE Dalton Kincaid, who has been TE3 in PPR points over the past four weeks.

View all Dawson Knox Shark Bites »

How do Injuries impact your draft strategy?

For us, it's 1/17th of the equation. Hear us out.

The Draft War Room is the only live-sync draft tool that monitors 17 crucial in-draft indicators, including injury likelihood… and adapts to show you which players to pick throughout your draft.

See how we built the 17 indicators into our Draft War Room »
Compare Plans » Compare Plans »

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Get It on Google Play