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Dalton Kincaid - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDalton Kincaid's Basic Stats

Dalton Kincaid
ADP: 12.7
Bye: 13
Experience: 0 Yr(s)
Age: 23.9
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 246

Dalton Kincaid's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.5 33.9 0.3 5.2
Weekly Writeup
Dawson Knox missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a back injury. If he's out, Kincaid will project as one of the top TE streamers of the week.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.5 43.1 0.3 6.1

Dalton Kincaid's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#13 Tight End

84.2 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
12.7 49.8 553.5 4.8 0.8 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDalton Kincaid's Preseason Player Analysis

View TE Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

With smooth route running, sticky hands, and a history of production, Kincaid looks like a future fantasy asset.

But for 2023, you have to pay up to land the former Utah star. As of mid-June, his Underdog ADP is a pricy TE11. If that holds, Kincaid will remain a fade throughout the summer.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Kincaid posted his most complete season at Utah last year, tallying 70 catches, 890 yards, and 8 TDs.
  • His production certainly benefited from a season-ending injury to stud teammate (TE) Brant Kuithe.
  • Still, Kincaid showed he was a top-flight TE prospect.
    • His 16 missed tackles forced ranked 3rd among TEs. He sat 2nd among qualifiers in yards per route run.
    • He flashed sure hands and carries a career drop rate of only 1.6%.
  • Kincaid’s tape shows a guy with terrific movement skills and strong post-catch ability.
  • He was utilized inline, out wide, and in the slot.
  • Kincaid’s 2022 production came at an advanced age (23). It’s a piece of the evaluation, but note that Kincaid broke out as a freshman at San Diego in 2018 (24-374-11 in 12 games).
What to Expect in 2023
  • Kincaid didn’t work out at the Combine or his Pro Day due to “tiny fractures” in his back, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.
  • But he participated in May/June OTAs, signaling that the injury is no longer a concern.
  • Historically, rookie TEs have struggled to find fantasy success. Since 2000, only 6 rookie TEs have recorded a top-10 fantasy finish. Two are active (Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram).
  • Kincaid landed in Round 1 to a team looking for a No. 2 or No. 3 passing option behind WR Stefon Diggs.
  • TE Dawson Knox returns after signing a contract extension in September. He’s likely plateaued as a pro, but he’s proven useful in back-to-back seasons, totaling 97-1,104-15.
  • The Bills have talked up Kincaid’s ability to play all over the formation. Look for the team to utilize more two-TE sets, with Kincaid playing some “big slot.”
  • WR Gabe Davis enters a contract year looking to improve on an inconsistent 2022. He still projects as the No. 2 target, but there’s an opening for Kincaid to narrow the gap.
  • QB Josh Allen remains a huge asset for this entire passing game. In 2022, Allen ranked top-7 in passing yards and passing TDs.

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Dawson Knox, TE BUF

2:11pm EDT 9/22/23

Dawson Knox ready for Week 3

After missing the first two practices of the week, Bills TE Dawson Knox (back) returned to a full practice on Friday and isn’t listed on the final injury report. He’ll be ready to split TE duties with Dalton Kincaid vs. the Commanders on Sunday.

View all Dawson Knox Shark Bites »

Bills TE Dawson Knox (back) missed practice again on Thursday. It looks like he's in real danger of missing this weekend's game vs. the Jets, which would be a significant boost to TE Dalton Kincaid's fantasy outlook. Check back tomorrow for another update on Knox.

View all Dawson Knox Shark Bites »

Bills TE Dawson Knox (back) missed practice again on Thursday. He's seemingly in danger of missing this weekend's game vs. the Commanders. Knox's absence would figure to turn TE Dalton Kincaid into close to an every-down player -- and a nice TE1 play in fantasy lineups.

View all Dawson Knox Shark Bites »

Bills TE Dalton Kincaid notched 5 catches (6 targets) for 43 yards in Week 2. He matched Dawson Knox in routes run – 22 – but it was Knox who cashed in with a goal line score. The rookie saw an end zone target of his own, but it fell incomplete. Kincaid also took a hard shot to his ribs on the play. We’ll keep an eye on his practice participation this week. If he’s ready to go for Week 3 (as we expect), Kincaid will likely slot in as a fringe TE1 at Washington.

View all Dalton Kincaid Shark Bites »

Bills WR Stefon Diggs caught 10 of 13 targets for 102 yards and a TD in Monday's loss vs. the Jets. This was a classic performance from Diggs. Fantasy managers likely fared better in their matchups than Buffalo did with that stat line. Diggs will look to keep the big numbers rolling vs. the Raiders in Week 2. Also worthy of mention is that rookie TE Dalton Kincaid hauled in all 4 of his targets for 26 yards in his NFL debut. A sub-10% target share isn't the most exciting item to see from Kincaid, though any production in lineups is appreciated given the week fantasy managers had with TEs.

View all Stefon Diggs Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View TE Dynasty Rankings »

Dalton Kincaid, TE BUF
Dynasty MVP 67.7
Position Rank #7 TE
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
211
346
634
Dynasty Write-up
While a bit undersized, Kincaid’s combo of tape and production is the best in this class. He looked like a natural pass catcher at Utah and added extra value after the catch. At 23 — and as a 5-year collegian — Kincaid should arrive in Buffalo pro-ready.
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