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Kincaid is on plenty of “do not draft” lists after an injury-riddled 2025.
But a deeper dive reveals elite per-route production. If Kincaid can stay healthy and get on the field more in 2026, he could return a big profit at his depressed price tag.
He’s an upside target in the double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts.
Customize Kincaid’s projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.
Kincaid totaled 39 catches for 571 yards and 5 TDs across 12 games last year. He ranked 13th among TEs in PPR points per game and 10th in half-PPR.
Kincaid was a volatile weekly producer. He finished as a top-10 PPR TE in five of 12 games, including three top-4 finishes. But he also finished TE25 or worse four times.
Playing time was a major problem for Kincaid last year. He played just 37.6% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps across 12 games and ran a route on 44.2% of pass plays, which ranked 39th among TEs.
Kincaid finished 23rd among TEs in target share (14.1%) and expected PPR points per game (7.7).
Kincaid still drew targets at an elite rate, leading all 69 TEs with 100+ routes at 0.27 targets per route last season.
Kincaid was super efficient on a per-route basis last year. His 2.79 yards per route led all 38 TEs with 40+ targets and was the best mark from a TE with 40+ targets since George Kittle in 2020.
Kincaid also led those 38 TEs with 0.70 fantasy points per route.
He combined a strong 79.6% catch rate with 14.6 yards per catch and a 12.8% TD rate. All three marks ranked top-6 among those 38 TEs with 40+ targets.
The Bills ranked fourth in points last year, their sixth straight top-6 finish. They also ranked fourth in total yards.
It was a run-leaning offense, though, finishing:
Still, strong efficiency boosted the Bills to 15th in passing yards and seventh in TDs.
Kincaid has produced plenty when on the field since going 25th overall in the 2023 draft.
He posted a 73-673-2 line in 16 games as a rookie, finishing TE13 in PPR points per game and scoring the ninth-most points per game by a rookie TE over the last 10 seasons.
Kincaid sank to TE23 in PPR points per game in 2024 as his efficiency cratered. But he still ranked ninth among TEs in target share (18.1%).
He rebounded last year with career bests in:
Kincaid’s 2026 hinges on finding more playing time after his route rate fell from 68.3% to 57.7% to 44.2% over his first three seasons.
Kincaid missed five games last year, one with an oblique injury, three with a hamstring, and one with a knee.
The knee was a recurrence of an issue that’s plagued Kincaid since 2024. He suffered what teammate Dawson Knox said was a torn PCL that November. Kincaid missed the following three games and saw his playing time limited upon return.
He opted against surgery the following offseason and reportedly aggravated the same knee while preparing to return from last November’s hamstring injury. Kincaid then missed Week 17 with knee trouble.
He has again decided not to surgically address the issue this offseason. Here’s what Kincaid said in May:
“After the season ended, I talked to a lot of doctors who know a lot more than I do regarding the PCL and everything that has to do with health and they advised against it. So, believe them and that kind of went into setting a good foundation for strength around the knee to support it. … Got plenty of opinions from people, you know, great doctors, a bunch of team doctors around the league, and so I went with their suggestions and opinions.”
Kincaid has been practicing without a brace on that left knee this offseason.
The Bills made no significant additions at TE this offseason, bringing back Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Jackson Hawes. Knox and Hawes played more snaps per game than Kincaid last year, largely because they were better blockers, but Kincaid was clearly the top receiving option in his 12 games.
Buffalo’s WR room got a jolt with a March trade for D.J. Moore. He posted career lows in catches (50) and yards (682) last year, while ranking 60th in yards per route and 55th in PFF receiving grade among 76 qualifying WRs. But he tallied a 98-966-6 line in 2024 and had topped 1,100 yards in four of the five seasons before that. He turned just 29 in April.
WR Khalil Shakir also returns after leading Buffalo with 100 and 95 targets the past two seasons.
Moore adds target competition for Kincaid, but it’s still not an especially strong WR corps. There’s room for Kincaid to play a big role.
QB Josh Allen will be back. He’s led Buffalo to top-9 finishes in passing yards in five of the last six seasons and top-7 finishes in passing TDs in all six.
The offensive line returns four of five starters, with Alec Anderson expected to replace David Edwards at LG. Edwards left for New Orleans in free agency after ranking 14th among 63 guards in PFF’s 2025 pass-blocking grades. Anderson went undrafted in 2022 and has played just 479 snaps since.
That spot will be worth monitoring this summer, but this still projects as a strong O-line.
The Bills fired Sean McDermott in January, ending a nine-year run as HC. The team replaced him by promoting Joe Brady.
Brady spent the past 2.5 seasons as Buffalo’s OC, taking over for Ken Dorsey midway through the 2023 campaign. The Bills went run-heavy over the second half of that season, posting a 48.2% pass rate and 52.0% neutral pass rate. Here’s where Buffalo has ranked in those metrics the last two years:
We’ll see what the departure of defensive-minded McDermott means for the run-pass split, but we’re expecting this to remain a run-leaning offense in 2026.
It does sound like the Bills want Kincaid on the field more this season. GM Brandon Beane said in February that Kincaid’s limited 2025 playing time was at least partly health related.
"Our No. 1 thing with Dalton is to see if we can get him in a healthier fashion this year, so that we don't have to A: miss games, and then B: limit how much he's playing," Beane said.
If Kincaid can get back to his rookie-year playing time (68% route rate) and even approach last year’s per-route efficiency, he could score as a top-6 fantasy TE.
This is a former first-round pick with a path to plenty of targets in a high-scoring offense.
Kincaid’s playing time has dropped in three straight seasons because of injuries and run-blocking deficiencies. If that trend continues, and he loses target share to Moore, Kincaid could prove entirely unreliable as a fantasy starter.
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D.J. Moore 'Getting No. 1' Treatment
D.J. Moore 'Getting No. 1' Treatment
ESPN's Alaina Getzenberg reports that WR D.J. Moore has enjoyed a strong start to his first training camp with the Bills. Moore reportedly made "highlight catches" on each of the first two days and looks like the lead receiver.
Here's Why You Should Think Carefully Before Drafting Dalton Kincaid
Here's Why You Should Think Carefully Before Drafting Dalton Kincaid
Bills TE Dalton Kincaid will need to play much more than he did in 2025 if he has a shot at becoming a comfortable weekly fantasy starter. Will it happen? According to Tim Graham, Bills beat writer for The Athletic, HC Joe Brady s "wondering how Buffalo will maintain Kincaid's week-to-week and play-to-play wherewithal." Brady reportedly discussed the possibility of Kincaid sitting out some practices during the season and "stated Kincaid simply might have to play through the pain." The issue is the PCL in his left knee, which Kincaid injured back in November 2024. He has avoided surgery each of the past two offseasons, but 2025 found him aggravating the knee on multiple occasions.
Bills Make 2027 Commitment to Dalton Kincaid
Bills Make 2027 Commitment to Dalton Kincaid
The Bills picked up the fifth-year option on TE Dalton Kincaid. The move triggers $8.1 million in fully guaranteed money for the 2027 season.
Bills Want Healthier And Busier Dalton Kincaid
Bills Want Healthier And Busier Dalton Kincaid
Bills GM Brandon Beane said a key offseason priority is finding a way to keep TE Dalton Kincaid healthy. Kincaid has dealt with multiple knee injuries, plus hamstring and oblique issues, over the past two seasons. "Our number one thing with Dalton is to see if we can get him in a healthier fashion this year, so that we don't have to A: miss games, and then B: limit how much he's playing," Beane said.
What New OC Pete Carmichael Could Mean For Bills Offense
What New OC Pete Carmichael Could Mean For Bills Offense
The Bills are hiring Pete Carmichael as OC, according to multiple reports. Carmichael spent 19 of the last 20 seasons with Sean Payton, first in New Orleans and then in Denver the past two. Bills HC Joe Brady worked under Carmichael as an offensive assistant with the Saints in 2017 and 2018. Brady has already said that he'll continue to call plays in 2026, but we'll see how much Payton flavor Carmichael brings to the offense. Former QB Chase Daniel, who played for the Saints in 2017, expects more play-action passing from the Bills going forward. QB Josh Allen already ranked fifth among 45 qualifying QBs in percentage of dropbacks to feature play action last year. Allen completed 71.7% of his passes at 8.2 yards per attempt off play action, ranking ninth and 15th among those 45 QBs.
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