Bottom Line

With smooth route running, sticky hands, and a history of production, Kincaid looks like a future fantasy asset.

But for 2023, you have to pay up to land the former Utah star. As of mid-June, his Underdog ADP is a pricy TE11. If that holds, Kincaid will remain a fade throughout the summer.

What We Learned Last Year

• Kincaid posted his most complete season at Utah last year, tallying 70 catches, 890 yards, and 8 TDs.
• His production certainly benefited from a season-ending injury to stud teammate (TE) Brant Kuithe.
• Still, Kincaid showed he was a top-flight TE prospect.
  • His 16 missed tackles forced ranked 3rd among TEs. He sat 2nd among qualifiers in yards per route run.
  • He flashed sure hands and carries a career drop rate of only 1.6%.
• Kincaid’s tape shows a guy with terrific movement skills and strong post-catch ability.
• He was utilized inline, out wide, and in the slot.
• Kincaid’s 2022 production came at an advanced age (23). It’s a piece of the evaluation, but note that Kincaid broke out as a freshman at San Diego in 2018 (24-374-11 in 12 games).

What to Expect in 2023

• Kincaid didn’t work out at the Combine or his Pro Day due to “tiny fractures” in his back, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.
• But he participated in May/June OTAs, signaling that the injury is no longer a concern.
• Historically, rookie TEs have struggled to find fantasy success. Since 2000, only 6 rookie TEs have recorded a top-10 fantasy finish. Two are active (Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram).
• Kincaid landed in Round 1 to a team looking for a No. 2 or No. 3 passing option behind WR Stefon Diggs.
• TE Dawson Knox returns after signing a contract extension in September. He’s likely plateaued as a pro, but he’s proven useful in back-to-back seasons, totaling 97-1,104-15.
• The Bills have talked up Kincaid’s ability to play all over the formation. Look for the team to utilize more two-TE sets, with Kincaid playing some “big slot.”
• WR Gabe Davis enters a contract year looking to improve on an inconsistent 2022. He still projects as the No. 2 target, but there’s an opening for Kincaid to narrow the gap.
• QB Josh Allen remains a huge asset for this entire passing game. In 2022, Allen ranked top-7 in passing yards and passing TDs.