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Dalton Kincaid - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDalton Kincaid's Basic Stats

Dalton Kincaid
ADP: N/A
Bye: 12
Experience: 1
Age: 24.9
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 240
40 Time: 4.68

Dalton Kincaid's Weekly Outlook

Week 6 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4 42.3 0.29 6
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.7 48.2 0.3 6.9

Dalton Kincaid's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#5 Tight End

196.2 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 79 816.3 5.93 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDalton Kincaid's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Kincaid earned Round 1 draft capital last year. He soon made an impact as a spot-start TE1, ultimately finishing 13th in PPR points per game.

2024 turns up boosted target opportunity with both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis off the roster. Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel joined over the offseason, but expect a more evenly distributed passing game.

Ultimately, Kincaid is fairly priced as the TE5.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Following a slow start, Kincaid became one of only four rookie TEs in league history to tally 70+ catches.
  • He did so in 16 games, missing only Week 6 (concussion).
  • Kincaid’s production took off in Week 7, when Dawson Knox battled a wrist injury that ultimately cost him the next five games.
    • Without Knox, Kincaid averaged 7.4 targets, 6.2 catches, 56.2 yards, and .4 TDs.
    • Kincaid finished as a top-13 fantasy TE in all five games.
    • In 14 games with Knox, Kincaid averaged 4.7 targets, 3.6 catches, 35.4 yards, and .07 TDs.
    • Kincaid finished as a top-13 TE three times in 11 regular season games alongside Knox.
  • Another dynamic was at play, as Buffalo swapped out OC Ken Dorsey for Joe Brady ahead of Week 11. Brady orchestrated a much more run-heavy approach.
    • Still, Kincaid’s targets per game essentially stayed the same under both OCs (5.6 to 5.8).
    • Kincaid’s target share under Dorsey: 16.9%
    • Kincaid’s target share under Brady: 18.0%
  • Overall, among 26 TEs with 50+ targets, Kincaid ranked third in catch rate, 23rd in yards per catch, 16th in yards after catch per reception, and T-12th in yards per route run.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Joe Brady takes over as the full-time OC.
    • As noted above, Kincaid’s usage didn’t take a hit after the in-season coordinator change.
  • The Bills traded Stefon Diggs and let Gabe Davis walk in free agency.
    • That removes 241 targets from the 2023 offense.
  • Buffalo’s main WR additions include Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman.
    • Samuel, 28, spent the past three years in Washington. After an injury-ruined 2021, he filled a short-range slot role from 2022-2023.
    • His contract includes $15 million guaranteed, suggesting the Bills will feature him.
  • Coleman arrived as an early Round 2 pick.
    • While he projects more on the outside, Coleman’s development will play a key role in Kincaid final target count.
    • Coleman projects as a potential red zone factor at 6’3, 213 pounds. He was a strong TD producer in college
  • Kincaid saw just a 14.5% red zone target share last year -- 3rd on the Bills and just ahead of Dawson Knox (12.9%).

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Dalton Kincaid, TE BUF

9:37pm EDT 10/6/24

Dalton Kincaid Underwhelms Again

Bills TE Dalton Kincaid managed just two catches for 34 yards in the Week 5 loss to the Texans. He tied for the team lead with six targets for a 20% share. But QB Josh Allen posted a career-worst 30% completion rate, including connecting on just two of six passes to Kincaid.

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Bills HC Sean McDermott said Friday on WGR 550 in Buffalo that WR Khalil Shakir won't play Sunday against the Texans. Shakir sprained an ankle late in the Week 4 loss to Baltimore and has missed practice all week.

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Bills TE Dalton Kincaid was excellent in his first day of camp working with Josh Allen, but TE Dawson Knox took all of his reps with Allen as well.

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Bills insider Vic Carucci believes TE Dalton Kincaid could emerge as the top option in the team's passing game this season. Carucci notes the progress that Kincaid made throughout his rookie season and writes that he's "expected to take a giant leap" in year two. "I think the offense will be designed to get the ball in his hands as much as possible," Carucci adds.

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According to multiple reports, the Bills are sending WR Stefon Diggs to the Texans. Buffalo is also sending a 2024 sixth-round pick and 2025 fifth-rounder to Houston, while getting back only a second-round pick in 2025. Diggs' production fell off late last season after the Bills switched offensive coordinators. Now 30 and in a new offense, Diggs will have to show he's not in decline. He'll add the challenge of splitting targets with Houston's emergent young wideouts. Nico Collins (seventh) and Tank Dell (12th) both ranked among the top 12 WRs in PPR points per game last season, with rookie QB C.J. Stroud. The Diggs addition obviously lowers the target-share ceiling for all three wideouts. We'll also have to see exactly how Houston plans to deploy them. Diggs spent 35.7% of his pass snaps in the slot last year; 34.2% the year before. He topped 30% in that category for three of his four Buffalo seasons, surpassed only by his 2016 sophomore season (62.9%). Collins spent 20.1% of his time in the slot last year; Dell 28.7%. We'd bet on all three moving around the formation some. But Diggs could wind up primarily replacing Robert Woods (55.5% slot) and Noah Brown (39.3%). The trio gives Stroud one of the league's best WR groups and boosts his fantasy upside. The QB already sat sixth at the position in Underdog Fantasy ADP, though. That adds risk to Stroud as a draft target and gives him little room to move up. QB Josh Allen, meanwhile, has lost his top two wideouts (Gabe Davis the other) while adding only WR Curtis Samuel this offseason. The dearth of remaining talent adds risk to his fantasy outlook, though you shouldn't expect the high-level rusher to move significantly down our rankings. As for other affected players: Diggs' departure leaves target share available for TE Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir. His arrival in Houston makes life tougher for TE Dalton Schultz. He already sat just 13th among TEs in best ball ADP, though, and will likely fall further following this trade. Be sure to check our rankings for your format to see all the effects of this high-impact deal.

View all Stefon Diggs Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View TE Dynasty Rankings »

Dalton Kincaid, TE BUF
Dynasty MVP 35.0
Position Rank #4 TE
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
313
513
960
Dynasty Write-up
While a bit undersized, Kincaid’s combo of tape and production was the best in the 2023 class. He looked like a natural pass catcher at Utah and added extra value after the catch. At 23 — and as a 5-year collegian — Kincaid proved pro-ready as a rookie (73-673-2 in 16 games). He's positioned for long-term success alongside Josh Allen.
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