Bottom Line

Gage basically has nowhere to go but up from his injury-riddled Tampa debut.

But at his best, he’s a volume-driven PPR asset with a limited ceiling and bad QB situation.

He’ll get an upside boost if the Bucs trade Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. Barring that, Gage is merely an end-of-draft best ball option.

What We Learned Last Year

• Gage ain’t worth much with a bad hamstring.
• He signed a three-year, $30 million last offseason, with half that money guaranteed. But injuries crept in almost immediately and hampered him throughout the year.
  • Gage missed OTAs with an unspecified injury.
  • He hurt a hamstring in August practice that cost him about three weeks.
  • Gage returned for the season opener but played just 42% of snaps. That increased for Week 2, and Gage played 61-80% of snaps over the next six games. Even then, he entered weeks 1-5 “questionable.”
  • Another hamstring injury in Week 7 cost him four games. Gage played just 33% of snaps in his first two games back from that one.
  • He then closed out the year playing 50-62% over the final five games, including the playoff loss to Dallas.
• Gage topped three catches in just five of his 13 games (including playoffs). He averaged 3.9 receptions and 32.8 yards per game for the regular season – both down vs. his last two Falcons seasons.
• Gage notched a career-high 72.9% catch rate but a career-low 8.4 yards per reception.

What to Expect in 2023

• Gage agreed to a pay cut this offseason to stay with the team.
• Unfortunately, he again had an undisclosed injury pop up during early workouts. It doesn’t sound serious, but we’ll watch to see whether it affects Gage into the start of training camp.
• His second year in Tampa Bay figures to find a significantly altered offense. The Buccaneers dumped OC Byron Leftwich and replaced him with Dave Canales. The first-time OC spent the past 13 years on Pete Carroll’s Seahawks staff, coaching WRs (2010-17), then coaching QBs (2018-19, 2022), and spending two years (2020-21) as passing game coordinator.
• Canales is expected to have an “added emphasis on establishing the run.” Canales said in the spring, “The marriage of the run and pass, that is our identity.” He was specifically referring to not giving away what’s coming with the formation. But Tampa will obviously need to run at a rate much higher than league low if it wants to keep the defense guessing about what’s coming.
• The team passed at the league’s highest rate each of the past two years, leading the NFL in pass attempts each time. That volume figures to come way down in 2023.
• Passing efficiency figures to decline as well. Comparing Baker Mayfield with Tom Brady at all feels silly. But since we have to:
  • Brady’s three Tampa seasons: 66.7% completions, 5.4% TD rate, 7.4 yards per pass attempt.
  • Mayfield’s career: 61.4% completions, 4.5% TD rate, 7.2 YPA
• Mayfield’s also coming off his worst season and will need to beat out Kyle Trask to even get the job.