Dontayvion Wicks - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Wicks flashed intriguing potential last season and is a nice guy to have on your dynasty roster. There’s potential for him to deliver in 2024 redraft leagues as well, but he’ll need to see more playing time. That will depend on either HC Matt LaFleur elevating the second-year WR over at least one teammate or someone getting hurt. Wicks looks solid as a bench stash in case either takes place.

What We Learned Last Year

• Wicks came kinda out of nowhere as a fifth-round rookie. He got playing time right away, though, thanks primarily to Christian Watson’s season-opening hamstring injury.
• His 62% Week 1 playing time actually led Packers WRs. Wicks checked in third in Week 2 (50%), tied for second in Week 3 (66%), and third in Week 4 (58%) before giving way to Watson.
• The rookie played near-exactly the same role as Watson, spending 35.7% of his pass snaps in the slot (Watson 34.2%) vs. 63.4% outside (Watson 63.6%). That helps explain why Watson’s availability affected Wicks’ role more than those of other WR teammates.
• Wicks rated well by advanced metrics for the year.
  • His 1.94 yards per route ranked 27th among 96 WRs who drew 40+ targets, according to Pro Football Focus, though it slightly trailed teammate Jayden Reed (1.95).
  • His rate of targets per route (19.6%) beat Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson, though it trailed Reed and three other WR teammates.
• Wicks fared especially well after the catch, trailing Reed by just 0.1 for the corps lead in yards after catch per reception, while seeing an average target depth 0.7 deeper.
  • “He has a great mindset, but if you really watched him on contact, he has a running back lower half where his whole foot gets in the ground off contact, and it’s really strong in his lower half,” WRs coach Jason Vrable said in February. “He does a good job when the first guy touches him that his pad level is low and he just runs through it.”
• “I think the sky’s the limit for him, quite frankly,” HC Matt LaFleur said toward the end of the season, amid comparing some of his physical skills to those of Davante Adams.

What to Expect in 2024

• The crowded WR corps challenges the fantasy projection and upside for all of its members. Wicks wound up third among the group in playing time as a rookie – well behind Doubs and solidly behind Reed. Watson led the group in snap share across healthy games.
• That’s the biggest question/challenge for Wicks in 2024. His performance as a rookie says he probably deserves more playing time going forward. But Doubs and Watson head into just their third seasons, have drawn plenty of praise, and delivered solid-to-good production. Reed’s coming off a strong debut campaign.
  • Will LaFleur elevate Wicks beyond any of those guys on the depth chart?
  • Will Watson finally stay healthy?
  • Will anyone else get hurt?
• It’s worth noting that Wicks never led his Virginia team in receptions across three college seasons. But he was efficient there as well, averaging 18.8 yards per catch for his career – including 21.1 on 57 receptions in 2021. (COVID shortened his final year and Wicks lost 2020 to injury.)
  • He ran a slow 40 time for the position at the Combine (4.62 seconds, 13th percentile) but tested very well otherwise:
    • 85th-percentile vertical
    • 91st-percentile broad
    • 6.91-second 3-cone at his pro day (58th percentile)
  • Wicks also had a strong Senior Bowl week, highlighted by American team DBs selecting him as the team’s WR of the week.
• Green Bay has gradually leaned further toward the run across LaFleur’s time as HC. Here are the annual rankings in neutral situation pass rate:
  • 2019: fifth
  • 2020: 10th
  • 2021: 11th
  • 2022: 18th
  • 2023: 20th
• It made sense for that to fall the past two years. Green Bay traded Davante Adams ahead of 2022 and then Aaron Rodgers before last season. In 2023, the Packers featured a first-time starter at QB and a pass-catching corps almost entirely made up of first- and second-year players.
• Now that the whole group has a year of experience – and good performance by QB Jordan Love – it would seem to make sense to shift back the other way some.
• Green Bay did, however, pay up for RB Josh Jacobs in free agency and draft RB MarShawn Lloyd in Round 3. So they might just continue the identity of the past two seasons.