Ja'Marr Chase Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Chase caught 125 balls for 1,412 yards and 8 TDs in 16 games last year, missing one on suspension for spitting in Steelers DB Jalen Ramsey’s face.

Chase ranked top-9 among WRs in catches, yards, and TDs. He finished third at the position in both PPR and half-PPR points per game.

Surprisingly, Chase was more productive without Joe Burrow last year, averaging 21.2 PPR points in nine games without him vs. 17.8 in Burrow’s seven full games. But even that lower mark would have ranked sixth among WRs.

Usage & Role

Chase led all WRs in pass routes (613), despite missing a game. His 94.2% route rate also led the position.

Chase drew a target on 30.0% of his routes, the sixth-highest rate among 109 WRs who ran 200+ routes last year. His 30.2% target share ranked third among those 109. Chase’s 185 total targets led the league, 13 clear of any other WR.

His role near the end zone wasn’t quite as large. Chase commanded:

• 26.2% of Cincinnati’s red-zone targets (eighth among WRs)
• 19.5% of the targets inside the 10-yard line (33rd)
• 20.5% of the end-zone targets

As a result, Chase ranked “just” 10th among WRs with 7.4 expected TDs.

But he still led the position with 19.4 expected PPR points per game, 0.9 more than No. 2 Puka Nacua.

Chase’s volume took a slight hit with Burrow:

Those marks with Burrow all would have still ranked top-8 among WRs.

Efficiency & Regression

Chase hauled in 67.6% of his targets but averaged a career-low 11.3 yards per catch last year. His 7.6 yards per target also set a career low and ranked 39th among 76 WRs with 50+ targets.

Chase fared much better in yards per route. His 2.23 in that department ranked 12th among those 76 WRs.

In film-based metrics, Chase finished:

• fourth in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
• seventh in ESPN receiver score
• sixth in Fantasy Points separation score

Chase averaged more yards per target with Burrow but fared better in yards per route and fantasy points per route without him.

Offensive Context

The 2025 Bengals ranked top-6 in pass rate (64.0%), neutral pass rate (63.5%), and pass rate over expected (+4.3%), despite Burrow missing nine games and most of a 10th.

The pass rate surprisingly shrank to 58.4% in Burrow’s seven full games, although they still posted a plus-4.2% pass rate over expected in those contests.

Cincinnati’s pass protection was shaky, with the offensive line ranking 28th in ESPN pass block win rate and 26th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade.

Historical Production & Trends

Chase’s WR3 finish in PPR points per game last year followed a WR1 finish in 2024.

Chase and Burrow played all 17 games that season, resulting in a huge 127-1,708-17 receiving line. Chase’s 23.7 PPR points per game were the 15th-most in NFL history and the fourth-most among the last 10 seasons.

That followed WR6, WR3, and WR13 finishes in PPR points per game in his first three seasons. Chase ranks second to only Puka Nacua with 19.6 PPR points per game over the past five years.

And there have been no signs of decline. Chase earned a career-best 90.1 PFF receiving grade last year. Two of his three best yards-per-route averages have come in the past two seasons. And at 26, he’s right at peak age according to our aging-curve research.

Injury History & Durability

Chase has missed only five games due to injury across five NFL seasons. A hip fracture cost him four games in 2022, and an AC joint sprain in his right shoulder sidelined him for one game in 2023.

Chase didn’t suffer any significant injuries in college, although he did tear his PCL as a high school senior in 2017.

Projected Role & Competition

Chase returns to a nearly identical situation as last year after the Bengals made no major moves at the skill positions.

TE Noah Fant, who caught 34 balls for just 288 yards and 3 TDs last year, departed in free agency. WR Colbie Young and TE Jack Endries arrived on Day 3 of the draft but are unlikely to be significant factors this season.

Tee Higgins returns as Cincinnati’s No. 2 WR. But Chase will remain the alpha.

Supporting Cast

Chase's production surprisingly spiked during Burrow's absence last season. Historically, though, his fantasy value has been closely tied to his QB. Including the playoffs, Chase has averaged 20.4 PPR points in 70 games with Burrow compared to 15.5 in 15 games without him.

Burrow has had a healthy offseason and remains one of the best passers in the NFL.

Cincinnati’s offensive line isn’t nearly as strong. It returns all five starters from last year in OTs Orlando Brown and Amarius Mims, Gs Dalton Risner and Dylan Fairchild, and C Ted Karras.

Risner, Fairchild, and Karras fared fine in PFF pass-blocking grades last year. But Mims and Brown ranked 48th and 56th, respectively, among 75 qualifying OTs.

This again projects as a subpar offensive line, although that’s never stopped Chase from putting up big numbers.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Zac Taylor is back for his seventh season as Bengals HC and offensive play caller.

Taylor’s offense going pass-heavy is one of the most bankable things in all of fantasy football. Here’s where Cincinnati has ranked in pass attempts, pass rate, and neutral pass rate since Burrow arrived:

The Bengals made some key additions to the defense this offseason in DLs Dexter Lawrence, and Jonathan Allen, and Boye Mafe, plus S Bryan Cook.

Improvement on that side of the ball could have the team in fewer shootouts and more positive game scripts. But the Bengals are still a good bet to finish top-5 in pass rate.

Paths to Ceiling

Chase remains one of the biggest talents in the game and plays in a pass-happy offense with very little target competition beyond Higgins.

If Burrow stays healthy, there’s clearly a path for Chase to lead all WRs in fantasy points, as he did in 2024.

Risk Factors

Burrow’s health is the biggest risk to Chase’s fantasy value. Burrow has missed significant time in three of six NFL seasons.

Chase’s career 15.5 PPR points per game without Burrow would have ranked 10th among WRs last year. Consider that his floor.