Ja'Marr Chase - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Chase is already one of the league’s best wideouts and heading into just his fourth season. His QB should be back healthy after significant injury issues corrupted his 2023. As long as both stay healthy, Chase should be a good bet for top-5 fantasy production – with a WR1 overall ceiling.

What We Learned Last Year

• QB matters. Chase drew 28.5% target share in Joe Burrow’s games vs. just 20.5% with Jake Browning.
• Even when Burrow was on the field, his early struggles impacted WR production.
  • The QB opened the year still working back from a July calf strain, which he aggravated in Week 2.
    • Burrow completed 57.6% of his passes over the first four games, averaging just 182 yards and 0.5 TD passes per game.
    • Chase ranked 21st among WRs in PPR points over that span, scoring 0 TDs.
  • Burrow played like his usual self over the next five games, completing 74.1% of passes while averaging 296 yards and 2.4 TDs per game.
    • Chase ranked third in PPR points over that span, even with a bye week mixed in.
• Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury in Week 11. From that week on, Chase ranked just 33rd in PPR points. He finished WR11 for the season.
• Chase himself gave us nothing to worry about. His target share in Burrow games would have lined up with the 2022 rate that ranked Chase seventh among wideouts. Tee Higgins’ five missed games didn’t hurt, but Chase’s 2022 share came with Higgins on the field much more.
• Chase’s yards per catch, yards per route, yards per target, catch rate, and receiving success rate all increased over the previous season.
• His average target depth decreased for the second straight year, and was down even before Browning stepped in.
  • That decline over two years makes it unlikely Chase will ever again approach the 18.0 yards per catch of his rookie campaign. But shorter average routes should help his per-game efficiency and fantasy-scoring consistency.
  • And Chase’s weekly numbers still show route variability. He checked in short of 10.0 in aDOT each of the first five weeks and six of the first seven. But his aDOT eclipsed 13.0 in five of the remaining nine games.

What to Expect in 2024

• Chase has played two seasons with a healthy Burrow and one without. He finished:
  • WR5 in PPR
  • WR3 in PPR points per game
  • WR11
• Burrow was back throwing for spring OTAs. We’ll obviously watch his status throughout the summer, but that wrist shouldn’t be a 2024 issue. And – barring an injury to Chase, of course – Burrow’s health might the only potential hurdle to Chase’s production.
• Higgins returns on the franchise tag. (We’ll see whether that keeps him off the field for any of training camp.) Tyler Boyd is gone, but the Bengals drafted exciting downfield threat Jermaine Burton in Round 3.
• OC Brian Callahan landed the HC gig in Tennessee. But his replacement – Dan Pitcher – was the QBs coach and has been in Cincinnati longer than HC Zac Taylor has. And Taylor has been the play caller. This shouldn’t be a difficult transition.
• Chase is looking for a contract extension and skipped OTAs in May. We’ll see whether that bleeds into training camp but certainly won’t start worrying about him before it does. The team has called extending Chase a “priority.”