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Ja'Marr Chase - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJa'Marr Chase's Basic Stats

Ja'Marr Chase
ADP: 1.4
Bye: 12
Experience: 3
Age: 24.3
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 201
40 Time: 4.39
Speed Score: 106.80

SPARQx (Rank): 141.90 (100%)
Burst Score (Rank): 135.70 (97%)
Agility Score (Rank): 10.95 (83%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.31 (94%)

Ja'Marr Chase's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
6.9 88.8 0.65 13.2
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
7 93.5 0.8 14.3

Ja'Marr Chase's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#4 Wide Receiver

296.9 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
1.4 103.5 1332 9.75 4.5 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJa'Marr Chase's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Chase is already one of the league’s best wideouts and heading into just his fourth season. His QB should be back healthy after significant injury issues corrupted his 2023. As long as both stay healthy, Chase should be a good bet for top-5 fantasy production – with a WR1 overall ceiling.

What We Learned Last Year

  • QB matters. Chase drew 28.5% target share in Joe Burrow’s games vs. just 20.5% with Jake Browning.
  • Even when Burrow was on the field, his early struggles impacted WR production.
    • The QB opened the year still working back from a July calf strain, which he aggravated in Week 2.
      • Burrow completed 57.6% of his passes over the first four games, averaging just 182 yards and 0.5 TD passes per game.
      • Chase ranked 21st among WRs in PPR points over that span, scoring 0 TDs.
    • Burrow played like his usual self over the next five games, completing 74.1% of passes while averaging 296 yards and 2.4 TDs per game.
      • Chase ranked third in PPR points over that span, even with a bye week mixed in.
  • Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury in Week 11. From that week on, Chase ranked just 33rd in PPR points. He finished WR11 for the season.
  • Chase himself gave us nothing to worry about. His target share in Burrow games would have lined up with the 2022 rate that ranked Chase seventh among wideouts. Tee Higgins’ five missed games didn’t hurt, but Chase’s 2022 share came with Higgins on the field much more.
  • Chase’s yards per catch, yards per route, yards per target, catch rate, and receiving success rate all increased over the previous season.
  • His average target depth decreased for the second straight year, and was down even before Browning stepped in.
    • That decline over two years makes it unlikely Chase will ever again approach the 18.0 yards per catch of his rookie campaign. But shorter average routes should help his per-game efficiency and fantasy-scoring consistency.
    • And Chase’s weekly numbers still show route variability. He checked in short of 10.0 in aDOT each of the first five weeks and six of the first seven. But his aDOT eclipsed 13.0 in five of the remaining nine games.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Chase has played two seasons with a healthy Burrow and one without. He finished:
    • WR5 in PPR
    • WR3 in PPR points per game
    • WR11
  • Burrow was back throwing for spring OTAs. We’ll obviously watch his status throughout the summer, but that wrist shouldn’t be a 2024 issue. And – barring an injury to Chase, of course – Burrow’s health might the only potential hurdle to Chase’s production.
  • Higgins returns on the franchise tag. (We’ll see whether that keeps him off the field for any of training camp.) Tyler Boyd is gone, but the Bengals drafted exciting downfield threat Jermaine Burton in Round 3.
  • OC Brian Callahan landed the HC gig in Tennessee. But his replacement – Dan Pitcher – was the QBs coach and has been in Cincinnati longer than HC Zac Taylor has. And Taylor has been the play caller. This shouldn’t be a difficult transition.
  • Chase is looking for a contract extension and skipped OTAs in May. We’ll see whether that bleeds into training camp but certainly won’t start worrying about him before it does. The team has called extending Chase a “priority.”

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Ja'Marr Chase, WR CIN

2:35pm EDT 7/8/24

Huge Expectations For Ja'Marr Chase In Year Four

The Athletic’s Paul Dehner Jr. sees a career-best year in store for Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase. “The position-less nature of the rest of the receiver and tight end group allows the Bengals to move Chase around more and dial up more explosive plays from different alignments,” Dehner wrote. “While his overall usage might not go up, the aggressiveness of his targets should and sets up for the three-time Pro Bowler and 2021 Offensive Rookie of the Year to enjoy his best season yet.” Last year, Chase ran 76% of his routes from out wide. His average depth of target (aDOT) sunk to a career-low 9.1 yards. Of course, Joe Burrow made only 10 appearances – his fewest since 2020.

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Bengals WR Tee Higgins was not present for the start of minicamp on Tuesday, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Higgins has still not signed his franchise tag and requested a trade (again) in late April.

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Bengals QB Joe Burrow was on the field and throwing as OTAs opened on Monday, according to the team's official site. Burrow resumed throwing earlier this offseason after undergoing right wrist surgery in late November, but this was the first time he did it in a team setting. He looked very close to 100% by all accounts, throwing with his usual velocity.

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Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase (shoulder) is active for today’s game vs. the Chiefs. It’s unclear how big a factor that shoulder will be, but Chase obviously comes with more risk than usual in Week 17 fantasy lineups. See where he lands in the Week 17 WR Rankings.

View all Ja'Marr Chase Shark Bites »

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that there's "optimism" that Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase (shoulder) will play vs. the Chiefs today. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport calls Chase "likely" to play. He'll go through a pregame workout before a final decision is made. We won't get Cincinnati's inactives until a little before 3 pm ET, so fantasy owners hoping to start Chase should have a replacement from the late games rostered as insurance.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Ja'Marr Chase, WR CIN
Dynasty MVP 164.4
Position Rank #7 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
505
838
1,572
Dynasty Write-up
An injured Joe Burrow kept Chase from hitting his fantasy ceiling in 2023. Still, he remained effective en route to a 100-1,216-7 line. Chase's elite outlook remains unchanged in 2024.
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