Show Navigation
Show Menu
Player Profile

Ja'Marr Chase - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Ja'Marr Chase
CIN

WR CIN

#27 Wide Receiver

145 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 10
Experience: 0 Yr(s)
Age: 21
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 210
40 Time: 4.34

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Low Floor

6.1

DS Projection

10.1

Consensus

38 other sites
11

Med Ceiling

14.6

Rest of
Season

9.8

Week 7 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.7 71.2 0.5 10.1
Weekly Writeup
Chase sits 6th among WRs in PPR points, despite ranking 27th in expected fantasy points. Regression will hit soon -- but Chase should certainly stay in season-long fantasy lineups as a WR2 with upside.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.4 68 0.5 9.8
Week 6
Chase can’t stop making big plays. He caught 34 and 53-yarders in Sunday’s win over the Lions. He’s now leading the league with 5 receptions of 40+ yards and is tied for 4 with 9 grabs of 20+.

No surprise, then, that Chase is sitting on a massive 20.5 yards per catch. He’s also scored 5 times on 27 catches -- an 18.5% TD rate.

Simply put, those kinds of efficiency metrics are unsustainable, no matter how good you think Chase is. Consider this: He ranks 6th among WRs in PPR points but just 33rd in targets. We should certainly expect Chase to be more efficient than your average WR. But not THIS efficient.

Consider Chase a WR2 with upside going forward. If you can get WR1 value for him in a trade, we’d cash in.
Week 5
Although Chase wasn’t lighting it up in the 1st quarter, he jump started his massive day on a play that Joe Burrow was under pressure and rolling out, and the WR got behind his defender while rolling with the QB, resulting in an electric 70-yard TD. Although he was targeted just 10 times, he averaged over 25 yards per catch, including a dazzling catch along the sideline to give the team a chance (which the kicker blew) to win the contest in OT.

Chase has seen his targets go up over the last 2 games while his yardage has also increased in each game after Week 2. He’s already emerging as a star who the Bengals will lean on. However, as opposing defenses begin to treat Chase as a true alpha, he could see a slight decrease in targets, as the team has Tee Higgins, who is also a star in his own right, and Burrow wouldn’t necessarily see a decrease in efficiency by throwing to the WR with more favorable coverage. Regardless, it’s tough to see Chase as less than a WR2 the rest of the way.
Week 3
With Tee Higgins sitting out with a shoulder injury, it looked as if Chase was in line for a massive target share. But with the Bengals leading throughout the contest, Joe Burrow only threw 18 passes, though Chase did see 5 of those. He made the most of his chances, as he consistently saw single coverage. He slipped behind the defender and snagged a perfect throw by Burrow on his 34-yard score, and he worked himself wide open on his 9-yard score to give him his 4th TD in 3 games to start his career.

After starting the season averaging 73 yards and 1.33 TDs, some may be ready to count on him as a weekly superstar. Of course, that’s possible, but he’s averaging just 5 targets per game, and unless that number goes up, the production level seems unsustainable. It also should be noted that Tee Higgins out-targeted him in the first 2 games before sitting this week out with a shoulder injury, so Chase could continue seeing suboptimal weekly target totals.
Week 2
After leading the team in targets in Week 1 with 7, it was a dose of reality in Week 2 for JaMarr Chase, who saw just 4 targets. While 2 catches for 54 yards was not the production many who started Chase hoped for, the TD helped salvage his fantasy day.

Going forward, Chase will likely have the widest range of outcomes among the Bengals' top 3 WRs. He has the big play ability to produce massive days, but the rookie could just as easily be held in check. When Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins are also options on your team, there is little reason to force the volume in one direction.
Week 1
According to Pro Football Focus, 25 WRs dropped at least 1 pass in Week 1. None of them was named Ja’Marr Chase.

Instead, the 5th overall pick led the Bengals in targets (7), receptions (5) and yards (101) in his NFL debut. He drew 25.9% of Joe Burrow’s total pass attempts, most notably his 50-yard, 2nd-quarter TD. That play obviously accounted for most of his fantasy points and won’t always show up. But Chase’s mix of short-range and deep-ball ability is why Cincinnati and fantasy drafters paid up for him.

We’ll see where the target shares in Cincinnati go from here. And it’s worth noting that the Bengals went low with passing volume overall. According to RBSDM.com, they checked in last in the league in Week 1 situation-neutral pass rate.

That’s bad news for passing volume if it sticks as Cincinnati’s approach. But we’ll see whether it was just a matter of easing the repaired QB back in for his 1st full action since the double-ligament tear.

Either way, the Bengals also made it clear they believe in their rookie wideout.

In addition to the long TD and team target lead, Chase also got a handoff on the team’s 2nd play and a 4th-quarter deep target that sailed beyond his reach down the sideline.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Chase broke out as a 19-year-old at LSU in 2019, posting 84-1,780-20 alongside Joe Burrow.
  • He set SEC records for receiving yards and TDs in a single season.
  • Chase accounted for 19.7% of LSU’s catches, 29.5% of the team’s receiving yards and 32.8% of the team’s receiving scores. Very strong age-adjusted marks in such a talented offense.
  • It’s tough to find a weakness in his game. Speed, contested catch ability and post-catch aggressiveness are all huge pluses. If there’s one thing to nitpick, it’s that he’s not a DeVonta Smith-like separator.
  • The 6’0, 201-pound Chase posted a 90th percentile 40 time, a 95th percentile vertical and a 95th percentile broad. He’s a super clean prospect — arguably the best over the past several years.
  • The Bengals let A.J. Green walk in free agency. He leaves behind 104 targets, which figure to move to Chase.
  • Cincinnati led the league in 3-WR sets last year, using the formation on 76% of the offensive snaps. Good news for Chase’s stock, as Cincy returns Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins.
  • The Bengals didn’t make any upgrades at TE after 3 guys (Drew Sample, C.J. Uzomah and Cethan Carter) combined for only 71 targets a season ago.
  • Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending ACL/MCL tear in Week 11. However, he’s fully expected to be under center for Week 1 this fall.
  • Chase’s built-in chemistry is certainly a huge plus. They duo already began offseason throwing sessions in May.
  • The 2020 Bengals ranked 13th league-wide in pass rate; 13th in total plays per game. With the same staff returning, an uber-talented QB entering year 2 and a defense still in rebuilding mode, this offense should safely lean pass once again.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line

We’re not sure we’d call Chase a generational talent, but he was our clear WR1 in this draft class. He has all of the hallmarks of a future WR1, both in real life and in fantasy.

A massive target ceiling isn’t likely for the 5th overall pick, at least as long as Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins stay healthy. But the Bengals’ heavy 11 personnel and the departure of A.J. Green made it easy to find 119 targets for the rookie. Only 21, the Louisiana native will carry a WR2 ceiling into September.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase has had a "fantastic week" of practice, The Athletic's Paul Dehner writes. It's certainly noteworthy after an early-August report that he was struggling in camp and then a 3-drop 2nd preseason game. We're not worried about Chase's on-field performance. It's the target competition and volume projection that's keeping him suppressed in the WR rankings.

View all Ja'Marr Chase Shark Bites »

Bengals rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase endured a rough outing Friday night in the team’s 2nd preseason contest. The 1st-round pick dropped all 3 of his targets vs. Washington. Drops weren’t a problem for Chase in college. Pro Football Focus charted him with just 5 among 118 targets in 2019, his final campaign at LSU. And we’re not generally too concerned with a WR’s drops in the NFL. But Chase’s lackluster performance stands as another signal we should be cautious about trusting the rookie for big fantasy football production right away. We’ll see whether the latest display knocks his ADP down, though.

View all Ja'Marr Chase Shark Bites »

The Athletic's Paul Dehner lists WR Ja'Marr Chase as 1 of the fallers of the first couple of weeks of Bengals training camp. "His skill set is that unique. You see flashes of that early, but you also see somebody tentatively getting used to a new offense, new league and not playing football since January 2020," Dehner writes. "He has endured a string of drops, on short and long passes, with another coming Sunday. He has not shown as much separation as you’d hope, and the contested balls haven’t gone his way much, either." It's not a major surprise that Chase is off to a slow start after opting out of the 2020 season -- but it is at least part of the reason that we have him as overvalued at his 4th- or 5th-round price tag.

View all Ja'Marr Chase Shark Bites »

The Bengals added LSU WR Ja’Marr Chase with the 5th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. Chase opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID concerns but had nothing left to prove after a massive 2019. He set single-season SEC records with 1,780 yards and 20 TDs. And he did it as a true sophomore battling for targets with Justin Jefferson, who just set the record for receiving yards by a rookie, and Terrace Marshall, who is expected to be a 1st- or 2nd-rounder this year. Chase goes 6’0, 201 pounds but plays bigger. He’s physical through his routes, at the catch point and after the catch. And he’s excellent going deep, leading the nation with 24 catches 20+ yards downfield in 2019, per Pro Football Focus. Chase blew up his Pro Day, blazing a 4.34-second 40-yard dash and registering a huge 41-inch vertical to earn a 98th percentile Relative Athletic Score. “Chase is one of the best wide receivers in the last 10 years,” a longtime scout told The Athletic’s Bob McGinn. “He can take an underneath ball and go 80 yards. He can just run right by you and catch it 60 yards downfield. He’s built like a fullback almost, but can run like a wide receiver. He’s as good as it gets.” Chase reunites with QB Joe Burrow in Cincinnati as part of a loaded WR corps alongside Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Any of those 3 could lead the team in targets this season.

View all Ja'Marr Chase Shark Bites »

Dominate your Fantasy League with

the Ultimate Tool Stack

In the heat of a draft, you want as much intel as possible. The key is integrating that into one simple, powerful tool.

Dominate your Fantasy League with

the Ultimate Tool Stack

In the heat of a draft, you want as much intel as possible. The key is integrating that into one simple, powerful tool.
3D Projections

3D Projections

3D Projections: True Dimension of Every Player’s Potential

Based on our award-winning projections, an axis of data points give insights far deeper than a ranking

View Our Accuracy Awards View Our Accuracy Awards »

Advice Draft Strategy

Advice That’s Actionable on Draft Day

Round-by-Round Draft Strategy Guides, Sleepers, Undervalued Players, Busts and Handcuffs

3D Projections

Draft War Room

Draft War Room: Intel Turned Into Killer Picks

Command your entire draft with a dynamic tool synced to your league. Updating and adapting in real time.

3D Projections

Keep Dominating Throughout The Season

Quickly find the free-agent gems, pull the trigger on the perfect trade & make the right start/sit decisions.

Keep Dominating
Draft Sharks

$6/month thereafter, billed semi-annually, one-click cancel anytime.

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Get It on Google Play